696
FXUS63 KIWX 142252
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
552 PM EST WED JAN 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON THURSDAY FOR THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS. SEE THE LATEST WINTER WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR MORE DETAILS. WARNING AREAS COULD SEE 5 TO 12
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS, AND ADVISORIES THE 3 TO 6
INCH RANGE. WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST GUSTS OF AROUND 40 MPH CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
- TRAVEL WILL BECOME DIFFICULT TONIGHT FOR AREAS IMPACTED BY
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. BOTH THE COMMUTES THIS EVENING AND
THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE IMPACTED. THE HEAVIEST LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
- THERE IS ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SYSTEM AND LAKE
EFFECT SNOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 544 PM EST WED JAN 14 2026
INTENSE SINGLE LAKE EFFECT BAND CONTINUES TO WRECK HAVOC FROM
PORTIONS OF BERRIEN COUNTY INTO SOUTH BEND AND JUST EAST OF
WARSAW. WHITEOUT CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH NUMEROUS
ACCIDENTS AS THE BAND CONTINUES TO DRIFT VERY SLOWLY WEST AND
SOUTH. UPSTREAM TRENDS AND WATER VAPOR SUGGEST MOVEMENT MAY BE
LIMITED IN THE BAND FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE PIVOT
POINT OF THE SFC LOW PASSES BY. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO POSSIBLY
AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE, RESULTING IN
DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. EAST OF THE BAND, SNOWFALL IS
QUICKLY TAPERING OFF AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY. SOME
SMALLER BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS MAY STILL DRIFT SE IN MANY AREAS
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS, CAUSING SOME LOCALIZED ISSUES. WITH
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO SLOWLY FALL INTO THE TEENS TONIGHT
AND WINDS REMAINING IN THE AT LEAST 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE, DRIFTING
AND BLOWING OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST WED JAN 14 2026
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX WHICH BROUGHT THE BANDED PRECIP
EARLIER TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THIS
EVENING. LAGGING STRONG LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FORCING WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BRIEF
TO MODERATE SNOW EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 69 CORRIDOR THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING. WHILE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE
AN INCH OR LESS WITH THIS BAND, TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DROP BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
LEADING TO ICY ROAD CONDITIONS.
THE FOCUS FOR REST OF LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY WILL BE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW AND POTENTIAL FOR AN AXIS OR TWO OF VERY HEAVY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING AS POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION DEEPENS.
NEAR TERM FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST INVERSION HEIGHTS
RISING TO AROUND 9K FEET THIS EVENING AND LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM
LEVELS OF AROUND 12-14K FEET. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR IS ALSO NOTED IN CLOUD BEARING LAYER WHICH SHOULD AID IN
EVENTUAL ORGANIZATION OF DOMINANT BANDING THIS EVENING. LONG
RESIDENCE TIME OF PARCELS WITH N-NW TRAJECTORIES AND GOOD LAKE
SUPERIOR CONNECTION WITH THESE TRAJECTORIES SHOULD ALSO SET THE
STAGE FOR DOMINANT BAND MODE. SNOW GROWTH SHOULD BE OPTIMAL WITH
DEEP VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS THROUGH THE A 3-6K FOOT BASED DGZ.
ONE POSSIBLE NON-FAVORABLE FACTOR COULD BE THE STRONG FLOW IN
TERMS OF DENDRITE INTEGRITY.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE TAKEN SOMEWHAT OF A MULTIBAND MODE
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT EXPECTING THIS TO TRANSITION TO MORE DOMINANT
SINGLE BAND (OR TWO) AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATER EVENING HOURS. 0-1KM
AND 0-2KM THETA-E LAPSE RATES IN NEAR TERM GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHT THE
DEEP INLAND PENETRATION POTENTIAL WITH THIS EVENT. A SUBTLE
TREND IN HREF GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FOR A WESTWARD SHIFT IN PRIMARY
DOMINANT BAND TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, SOME CONCERN THAT A
BIAS BE ON DISPLAY WITH SOME OF HI-RES GUIDANCE IN OVERDOING
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS A RESULT OF STRONG CONVECTIVE RESPONSE.
ANOTHER SYNOPTIC WAVE/UPPER LEVEL JET SHOULD DIG SOUTH ACROSS
THE UPPER MS VALLEY LATER TONIGHT WHICH COULD RESULT IN SLIGHT
VEERING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS THAT COULD POTENTIALLY SHIFT DOMINANT
BAND SLIGHTLY WESTWARD OVERNIGHT. ONLY SMALL FORECAST
ADJUSTMENT FOR THIS SHIFT WAS TO MAKE SLIGHT WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT
TO HEAVIER SNOW AMOUNTS, BUT NOT TO THE MAGNITUDE OF HREF
TREND BUT OVERALL NOT DEVIATING MUCH FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. IN
ANY EVENT, DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH TONIGHT SHOULD
FOCUS DOMINANT SINGLE BAND ACROSS PORTION OF IWX LAKE EFFECT
AREA, SO ONLY CHANGE TO GOING HEADLINES WAS TO ADD STARKE
(ESPECIALLY NE PORTIONS OF COUNTY) TO THE WARNING, AND ALSO ADD
PULASKI/FULTON TO THE ADVISORY GIVEN INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
DEEP INLAND PENETRATION. 6 TO 12 INCH AMOUNTS WERE MAINTAINED IN
THE WARNING AREA, BUT IF DOMINANT BAND CAN FOCUS, IT IS
POSSIBLE LOCALIZED AREAS COULD SEE AMOUNTS IN THE 12 TO 18 INCH
RANGE. AS WITH ALL LAKE EFFECT EVENTS, EXACT BAND PLACEMENT
STILL REMAINS AN ITEM OF SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE AND TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW WILL BE A
CONCERN GIVEN STRENGTH OF SFC WINDS AND A RATHER DRY SNOW (20:1
RATIO).
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN ON THURSDAY,
BUT DEEP CONVECTIVE LAYER SHOULD KEEP LAKE EFFECT GOING THROUGH
THE MORNING THURSDAY BEFORE WANING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS
SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD
HOPEFULLY LESSEN BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL.
AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WARM ADVECTION
PERIOD GIVES RISE TO ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR
TWO. SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE THAT COULD CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. FOR FRIDAY, BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
TRACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING MUCH COLDER
CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY. MAY HAVE TO WATCH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
BAND OF MORE VIGOROUS SNOW WITH THIS STRONG COLD FRONT, ALTHOUGH
FGEN FIELDS SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER IN COMPARISON TO THIS
MORNING AS BETTER MID/UPPER DYNAMICS WILL BE DISPLACED TO THE
SOUTH.
A PARADE OF WEAKER SYSTEMS WILL BRING REINFORCING COLD AIR FOR LATE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL OF LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL AT TIMES
(MORE OF WESTERLY FETCH SCENARIO). WIND CHILLS COULD DROP TO
ADVISORY CRITERIA AT TIMES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 544 PM EST WED JAN 14 2026
ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOWSHOWERS MAY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS AT KFWA, THE BULK OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND HAS SHIFTED
WEST AND IS NOW FOCUSED ON KSBN. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH LITTLE OVERALL
INDICATION OF THE BAND SHIFTING WEST UNTIL MAYBE 2Z OR AFTER.
SOME MODEL RUNS STILL DEPICTS LITTLE OVERALL MOVEMENT EVEN WELL
BEYOND 2Z, SO TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH THE EVENING FOR
POSSIBLE FURTHER EXTENSION OF LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. GUSTY WINDS WILL
ALSO CREATE PLENTY OF BLSN.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ005-013-
015-116-216.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THURSDAY FOR
INZ012-014-103-104-203-204.
OH...NONE.
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ078-177-
277.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
UPDATE...FISHER
DISCUSSION...MARSILI
AVIATION...FISHER
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