379
FXUS63 KIWX 161121
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
621 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PROVIDES A COUPLE CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS TODAY AND AGAIN THIS EVENING. WHILE ACCUMULATIONS
STAY BETWEEN 1 AND 2.5 INCHES, HIGHEST NORTH, BREEZY WINDS UP
TO 25 TO 30 MPH MAY ALLOW FOR BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW.
- AFTER NEAR NORMAL HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S, A
TREND TO MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS IS IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS AT TIMES. THE
COLDEST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY.
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 414 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
A SERIES OF VORT MAXES LOOK TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
BETWEEN THIS MORNING AND NEXT WEEK.
THE FIRST, A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT DOVE SOUTHEAST FROM
CANADA TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT AND TODAY SHIFTS EASTWARD
SATURDAY MORNING. AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVED THROUGH INTO EARLY THIS
MORNING, BUT ONLY A FEW AREAS SAW SNOW SHOWERS WITH HOW MUCH DRY AIR
WAS WITHIN IT/ IN THE ANTECEDANT AREA. WARM ADVECTION WILL NOW TAKE
OVER THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND COLOCATED VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH TODAY INTO THE EVENING.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RISE INTO THE LOW 30S TODAY, BUT IT APPEARS
THAT SURFACE PTYPE LOOKS TO STAY SNOW FOR MOST OF THE TIME PERIOD.
SATURATION WITHIN THE COLUMN APPEARS TO BE AN ISSUE TODAY AND THAT
WILL LIKELY RESTRICT SNOW ACCUMULATION. THERE'S AN OUTSIDE CHANCE AT
SOME DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE, BUT IT WOULD BE OF LOW CONFIDENCE AND
FOR A SHORT ENOUGH DURATION TO LEAVE IT OUT OF THE ACCUMULATION
GRIDS FOR NOW. ADDITIONALLY, AM NOTING SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT WITH THE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER LIGHTING UP AND
SOME SBCAPE ALONG AND JUST IN FRONT OF THE COLD FRONT. STILL HAVE 1
TO 2.5 INCH STORM TOTAL SNOW WITH THE HIGHEST IN NORTHERN BERRIEN,
ESPECIALLY WITH THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE THERE THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT. ADDITIONALLY, SOME 20 TO 30 MPH GUSTS COULD OCCUR
WITH SOME MIXING TODAY AND THAT COULD ALLOW FOR SOME BLOWING AND
DRIFTING OF SNOW.
FOR SATURDAY, WITH THE UPPER LOW JUST TO OUR WEST, THE MAIN
VORTICITY LINES THE BASE OF THE TROUGH, WHICH IS OUTSIDE OF THE
AREA, AND THIS ALLOWS FOR A DAY OF A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. THERE
MAY BE SOME SIGNAL OF LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS FOR BERRIEN AND CASS, MI
BUT THE BULK OF THE AREA LOOKS DRY. IT'LL BE COOL ON SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. THE BACK EDGE OF THE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE TEAR DROP OF LAKE MI SATURDAY NIGHT AND MAY FINISH OFF
WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS BEFORE PULLING
AWAY.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MID LEVEL RIDGING MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY ALLOWING
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO BEGIN TO SLACKEN BACK A LITTLE BIT. THEN,
ANOTHER 2 SHORTWAVES FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME MORE LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS. THE SECOND SHORTWAVE IS MORE VIGOROUS THAN
THE FIRST ONE. THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH APPEAR TO BE ON THE DRIER SIDE
WITH THESE WAVES THOUGH AND TRAJECTORIES APPEAR TO HAVE MORE OF A
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THEM TO KEEP LAKE ENHANCED SNOW MAINLY IN
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF US-6 INTO MONDAY. LAKE ENHANCED INVERSIONS
WILL BE MEAGER AT LOWER THAN 850 MB AND WITH 20C OR LESS DELTA TS
RESTRICTING LAKE EFFECT SNOW OUTPUT FROM TODAY UNTIL WE CAN GET TO
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. AT THIS POINT, DELTA T VALUES AT LEAST BEGIN TO
ACHIEVE 25C UP TO 850 MB WITH THE COLDER AIR.
MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE POKE IN MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR A DRYING TREND. HOWEVER, ONCE AGAIN,
A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE HOT ON ITS HEALS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. THE AIGFS IS WAY EARLY WHEREAS THE GFS IS LATER THAN
THE ECMWF FOR THIS SYSTEM SO THERE IS STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
TO IRON OUT.
A DOWNWARD TREND OF TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY TO
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WITH COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WIND CHILLS POSSIBLE
MONDAY MORNING AND MONDAY NIGHT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE
NEGATIVE 25C TERRITORY DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
THEREAFTER, THE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS IS
EXPECTED TO RETRACT EAST AND NORTHWARD AS HIGH PRESSURE TRAVERSES
FROM THE PLAINS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST. THIS
ALLOWS FOR A DRYING PERIOD FOR LATER NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT SYSTEM
COULD MOVE IN BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY (1/23-1/24)
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 620 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING WITH SOME BRIEF LIGHT SNOW. TREND IN UPSTREAM OBS HAS
BEEN A FASTER AND WEAKER EVOLUTION AND UPDATED THE TAF'S
ACCORDINGLY. SOME BRIEF IFR IS STILL POSSIBLE AT KSBN BUT
CHANCES NOW APPEAR LOWER AND EXPECT MVFR TO PREVAIL AT KFWA.
LIGHT SNOW WILL EXIT BY 18Z BUT ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER
IN MVFR CATEGORY FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...ROLLER
AVIATION...AGD
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