964
FXUS63 KIWX 212351
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
651 PM EST WED JAN 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A VERY ACTIVE WEEK WITH OPPORTUNTIES FOR SNOW AND THE COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON IS AHEAD.
- A PARADE OF ARCTIC COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE COMING
DAYS, BRINGING REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR AND OPPORTUNTIES
FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY.
- BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT AND LASTS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DAYTIME HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS.
- EXPECT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS FRIDAY
MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 229 PM EST WED JAN 21 2026
THE FIRST ARCTIC COLD FRONT OF THE WEEK IS CURRENTLY DRAPED JUST TO
THE WEST OF OUR AREA IN NORTHERN ILLINOIS. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM,
THERE WERE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING BUT THOSE HAVE SINCE
DISSIPATED. WITH BRIEF WAA TODAY, TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO
THE LOW TO MID 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS AS OF THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
ENJOY IT BECAUSE THIS WILL BE THE FIRST AND ONLY DAY ABOVE
FREEZING FOR AWHILE!
ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF OUR SECOND
ARCTIC COLD FRONT, BUT IT WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME DRY AIR IN ABLE TO
PRODUCE ANY SNOW. THERE WILL BE LIFT IN THE DGZ, ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
IS LIMITED AND DISJOINTED SO UNSURE IF THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE
ANYTHING MORE THAN JUST LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. SOME HI RES MODEL
GUIDANCE WAS PREVIOUSLY DEPICTING BURSTS OF SNOW WITH GUSTY WINDS
TONIGHT THAT MAY HAVE SNOW SQUALL-ESQUE CHARACTERISTICS. I
THINK POTENTIAL FOR THIS WILL BE RATHER LIMITED, ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF US 3 WHERE THERE IS MORE DRY AIR. SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT
MAY BE POSSIBLE AROUND LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE AROUND 1" OF
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE, BUT GENERALLY THINKING NO MORE THAN
0.5" OF SNOW FOR THE REST OF THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK
THURSDAY. DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTY IN SNOW, WINDS WILL DEFINITELY
BE GUSTY OVERNIGHT AND ON THURSDAY MORNING! WITH THE ARCTIC
FRONTAL PASSAGE, WINDS OUT OF THE WEST COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 30
TO 40 MPH. IN AREAS THAT DO GET ANY SNOW, THIS WILL LOWER
VISIBILITIES AND ALLOW FOR SOME BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL. BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY MORNING, CONDITIONS STAY DRY UNTIL
LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AND INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN, HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THURSDAY. I'D EXPECT
MUCH OF THE AREA WILL STAY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY OUTSIDE OF THE
PRIMARY SW LOWER MICHIGAN AND NW INDIANA SNOWBELTS. HIGHS
THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER IN THE 20S.
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL BE THE BITTERLY
COLD AIR THAT INTRUDES STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT AND LASTS ALL THE WAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS A STRONG 1050MB+ ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS, ARCTIC AIR SPILLS INTO THE MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES. WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUB-
ZERO WIND CHILLS FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ACTUAL
AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE TEENS THURSDAY NIGHT, FALLING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY AS OUR THIRD COLD FRONT OF THE WEEK MOVES
THROUGH. THIS ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN BREEZY WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT; GUSTS OF UP TO 30 TO 40 MPH WILL ALLOW FOR
WIND CHILLS TO DROP TO DANGEROUSLY COLD THRESHOLDS. WIND CHILLS WILL
BE AS COLD AS -15 TO -23 ON FRIDAY MORNING. IT IS GOING TO BE
DANGEROUSLY COLD AT TIMES; I DID CONSIDER ISSUING AN EXTREME COLD
WATCH IN NW INDIANA ON THIS SHIFT BUT WIND CHILL VALUES ARE JUST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE THRESHOLD FOR THAT (-25F). WILL LET THE
OVERNIGHT SHIFT TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT TEMPS AND WINDS TO
DETERMINE WHEN AND WHERE HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED. BEHIND THAT
FRONT, LOWS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT AND
HIGHS REBOUND ONLY INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR SATURDAY.
ADDITIONAL COLD WEATHER HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED INTO THE
DAY FRIDAY AND EXTENDING INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL.
WE ARE ALSO KEEPING AN EYE ON THE SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM EXPECTED
TO IMPACT THE SOUTHERN US. AS THIS SYSTEM GETS SUPPRESSED SOUTH
OF OUR AREA ON FRIDAY BY THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG ARCTIC HIGH,
QUESTIONS REMAIN WITH THE EXACT LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT AS THE WINTER STORM
LIFTS NORTH (HOW FAR NORTH? LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY THERE), OUR AREA
MAY SEE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM. THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF CHATTER ONLINE AND
ON SOCIAL MEDIA ABOUT DIFFERENCES AND POSSIBLE TRENDS IN THE
EURO AND GFS MODEL RUNS. WITH THAT WEEKEND WINTER STORM SYSTEM
STILL DEVELOPING IN THE PACIFIC, IT IS TOO EARLY TO SAY FOR OUR
AREA WHETHER ANY MODEL RUNS THAT BRING THE SYSTEM THE NORTHWARD
ARE A TRUE TREND OR JUST A FLIP FLOP IN MODEL RUNS. FOR NOW,
HAVE KEPT WITH THE NBM POPS FOR THE WEEKEND, WHICH HAVE 30-60%
CHANCES FOR SNOW. AN OPPORTUNITY EXISTS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF US 30. HOWEVER,
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW AND RELATED TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL BE
SOUTH OF OUR AREA INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. IT IS STILL TOO
EARLY TO DISCUSS AMOUNTS, TIMING, AND EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM
INTO OUR AREA. STAY TUNED FOR FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES!
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AN ACTIVE PATTERN REMAINS WITH PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST FLOW, CHANCES FOR SNOW, AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS LIKELY CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 640 PM EST WED JAN 21 2026
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT BRINGING
LOWERED MVFR CIGS AND LIGHT SNOW MAINLY FOR KSBN FROM 03-09Z
THU, HOWEVER A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT TO THE GROUND
AT KFWA AROUND 05-09Z THU. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS DISTURBANCE PASSAGE AND GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY FOR KFWA. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER 15-18Z THU.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...ANDERSEN
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