919
FXUS63 KIWX 221002
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
502 AM EST THU JAN 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING FOR WIND CHILLS 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO. COLD WIND
CHILLS BELOW ZERO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY NIGHT.
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH AN
ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW MOST POSSIBLE BETWEEN
BERRIEN, CASS, MI, AND LAPORTE COUNTIES.
- A STORM IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA BETWEEN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MAY BE ABLE TO BRING
SIGNIFICANT SNOW TOTALS TO THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 444 AM EST THU JAN 22 2026
THE SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT LIGHT SNOW TO OUR NORTHERN AREAS TODAY
CONTINUES SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD TODAY, BUT AN UPPER LOW ARRIVES IN
THE GREAT LAKES NOT TOO FAR BEHIND IT. THIS MAY SPELL A BRIEF BREAK
IN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A PERIOD OF
SOUTHWEST TRAJECTORIES. HOWEVER, A QUICK RETURN TO WEST WINDS AND
LOW LEVEL WIND CONVERGENCE SLIDING SOUTHWARD TOWARD BERRIEN COUNTY
AS WELL AS NEGATIVE THETA-E LAPSE RATES. THERE ARE A FEW THINGS THAT
ARE NEGATIVE FOR IT THIS TIME AROUND THOUGH WITH A SLOW START FOR
INVERSION HEIGHTS, REACHING 5000 FT BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, AND
DELTA TS ONLY REACHING 20C. BY FRIDAY MORNING THOUGH, A STRONG
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE AND COLOCATED SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE
LAKE AND INVERSION HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE TO 5500 TO 6000 FT AND DELTA
TS REACH 25 TO 30C INDICATING BETTER LAKE EFFECT ENHANCEMENT. GIVEN
IT'LL BE SO COLD THOUGH, THE DGZ IS VERY CLOSE TO THE SURFACE,
WHEREAS THE MOISTURE AND LIFT IS ABOVE IT IN COLDER LAYERS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE, WHICH REDUCES SLRS. ANOTHER WRINKLE IN THIS IS THAT THE
TRAJECTORIES BEGIN TO VEER NORTHERLY FRIDAY NIGHT AFTER BEING
NORTHWESTERLY MOST OF THE DAY FRIDAY AS A 1050 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS DOES HAVE A CHANCE
TO PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCHES.
THE OTHER HAZARD WILL BE THE COLD. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP RAPIDLY
TONIGHT TO BETWEEN -25 AND -30C FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A 50 KT JET TRAVERSING THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL ALLOW WIND CHILLS TO EXCEED -15F EASILY AND COULD MAKE
NEGATIVE 25F WIND CHILLS POSSIBLE FOR COUNTIES WEST OF US-31. THE
ONE ISSUE WILL BE IF THE LAKE CLOUDS CAN PROVIDE A BIT OF A BLANKET
FOR THE AREA KEEPING THEM WARMER. MODELS HAVE A GREATER THAN 25%
CHANCE OF -25F WIND CHILLS IN PARTS OF THE N/S LAPORTE ZONES AS WELL
AS IN PARTS OF STARKE, PULASKI, AND WHITE COUNTIES. HAVE ISSUED A
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE WHOLE AREA AS A
RESULT. GIVEN THE LAKE CLOUD POTENTIAL, HAVE HELD OFF WITH A COLD
WEATHER WARNING FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED COUNTIES FOR NOW. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE ADVISORIES GET EXTEND INTO FRIDAY A LITTLE LONGER,
ESPECIALLY AREAS N OF US-24, BUT THIS IS WHEN THE LLJ BEGINS TO MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA.
TRAJECTORIES ALLOW FOR WAA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY SO THAT -10 TO -20C
TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB WILL BE MORE POSSIBLE. THE JET IS EAST OF THE
AREA AT THIS POINT, BUT 15 TO 25 MPH GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WIND
CHILLS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE MORE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO FOR SATURDAY AND SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR SUNDAY.
NOW, THE BIGGER ISSUE IS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FOR
SATURDAY (RIGHT AROUND MIDDAY) SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
NEXT TROUGH BEHIND THE 1050 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ABLE TO DROP
ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF AND PICK UP THE ENERGY AND MOISTURE BEFORE
SENDING THE LOW UP THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF WITH THE GFS BEING FLATTER
THAN THE ECMWF, BUT THE AIGFS IS ACTUALLY CLOSER TO THE ECMWF WITH
ITS PRECIP SHIELD, WHICH LENDS SOME CONFIDENCE TO THE SITUATION. THE
850 MB LOW TRACK POINTS TO THE AREA SEEING THE WORST OF SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. IT ACTUALLY ARRIVES SATURDAY MIDDAY AND
THAT'S WHEN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND WOULD BE ONGOING. GIVEN THE
VERY COLD AIR EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY, RATIOS WILL LIKELY BE GREATER
THAN SEASONAL AVERAGE RATIOS OF 13:1, POTENTIALLY REACHING 15 TO
20:1. SURFACE TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH ABOVE 10 ON SATURDAY
AND MORNING LOWS STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE ZERO ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER, IT
LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE BIT MORE RELAXED WITH GUSTS
STAYING BELOW 20 MPH THROUGH THE EVENT, WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP WIND
CHILLS ABOVE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW LOOKS TO FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS A STRONG
VORT MAX CROSSES LAKE MI. WE'LL ALSO HAVE A RETURN OF -20C AT 850 MB
SIGNIFYING COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUING NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1247 AM EST THU JAN 22 2026
PREDOMINANTLY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR QUICK DROPS TO IFR VISIBILITY WITHIN ANY SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING (OBS WITHIN SHOWERS RANGING
FROM 1 1/2SM TO 3SM AT TIMES). W-SW WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE W-NW
FOR A PERIOD BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT (CURRENTLY OVER
KSBN), WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35KTS POSSIBLE (KBEH/KPPO/KOXI
AS OF THIS WRITING GUSTING TO AROUND 31-32KTS). UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS NEAR CHICAGO/PONTIAC, IL TOWARDS RENSSELAER WERE
GUSTING UP TO AROUND 35-42KTS WITH THE FRONT PASSAGE EARLIER
THIS EVENING, SO WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS GIVEN THE LLJ RAMPING UP TONIGHT. LLWS LINGERS AT KFWA
BEFORE BETTER MIXING ARRIVES WITH THE FRONT. SHOWERS JUST WEST
OF THE TERMINAL AS OF RIGHT NOW HAD VISIBILITY DROP TO AROUND
5SM WHEN THEY PASSED OVER KRCR-AND REMAINED GREATER THAN 6SM FOR
KASW-SO KEPT THE VIS DROPS TO MVFR FOR NOW IN THE TEMPO. DRY
CONDITIONS OTHERWISE, WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPING JUST
BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD AT KSBN.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ TO 1 PM EST
/NOON CST/ FRIDAY FOR INZ005>007-012>015-103-104-116-203-
204-216.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR INZ008-
009-017-018-020-022>026.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR INZ027-
032>034.
OH...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ001-
002.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ004-
005-015-016-024-025.
MI...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
MIZ078>081-177-277.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...ROLLER
AVIATION...MCD
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