385
FXUS63 KIWX 230439
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1139 PM EST THU JAN 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES TONIGHT AND LASTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DAYTIME HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT
OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS.
- EXPECT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS FRIDAY
MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL
BE IN EFFECT AREA-WIDE FRIDAY MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS AS LOW
AS -15 TO -25.
- THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THE
WEEKEND. A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR 7 PM EST
SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US 24.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 224 PM EST THU JAN 22 2026
LAKE EFFECT SNOW, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE IS BRIEFLY BUILDING IN ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TODAY, KEEPING THE AREA DRY AND ALSO BRINGING SOME SUNSHINE!
WEST WINDS AND CAA ARE KEEPING TEMPERATURES CONFINED TO THE 20S
TODAY. THIS IS THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WE WILL SEE UNTIL THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK!
LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. WITH LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS (LESS THAN 5000
FT) AND A LACK OF DECENT MOISTURE AND LIFT IN THE DGZ, LAKE EFFECT
MAY BE RATHER SPARSE TONIGHT AND FOR FRIDAY MORNING. AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED 500 MB SHORTWAVE WILL AID IN LIFT AS THEY PASS
THROUGH ON FRIDAY, WHICH SHOULD HELP TO INVIGORATE LAKE EFFECT
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. INVERSION HEIGHTS RISE TO
BETWEEN 5000-6000 FT AND WITH LIFT AND MOISTURE IN THE DGZ THEN
(MAINLY AFTER 00Z SAT), LAKE EFFECT COULD INTENSIFY AFTER DARK. AS
WINDS SHIFT TO BECOME NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE
FRONT, SOME OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS THAT DEVELOP MAY MOVE
FURTHER INLAND. WITH VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR MOVING IN THOUGH, SNOW
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE SUPPRESSED DUE TO VERY HIGH SLRS. WHATEVER
SNOW DOES FALL ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING SHOULD BE INCREDIBLY FINE. THUS, SNOW AMOUNTS ARE
LIMITED TO 1-3" TOTAL IN THE PRIMARY SW MI AND NW IN SNOWBELTS
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND LESS THAN 0.5" ELSEWHERE DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKE.
ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN; BITTERLY COLD FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN BITTERLY COLD AIR THAT INTRUDES STARTING
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING LASTING ALL THE WAY THROUGH MONDAY. AS A STRONG
1050MB+ ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS, ARCTIC
AIR SPILLS INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS STARTS FRIDAY MORNING AND GOES THROUGH THE DAY
ON SUNDAY. ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE TEENS THURSDAY
NIGHT, FALLING THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL RESULT
IN BREEZY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON; GUSTS
OF UP TO 30 TO 35 MPH WILL ALLOW FOR WIND CHILLS TO DROP TO
DANGEROUSLY COLD THRESHOLDS. WIND CHILLS WILL BE AS COLD AS -15
TO -25 FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY. IT IS GOING TO BE
DANGEROUSLY COLD AT TIMES; A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING (EXCEPT SOUTH OF US 24 WHERE WIND CHILLS WILL BE
'WARMER' DUE TO TEMPS ABOVE ZERO AND MORE CLOUDS) AS WINDS
DIMINISH FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WIND CHILLS GRADUALLY IMPROVE
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY BUT REMAIN BELOW ZERO AS ACTUAL AIR
TEMPERATURES DROP. LOWS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO
FRIDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS REBOUND ONLY INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR
SATURDAY. A BIT 'WARMER' ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS.
THANKFULLY, WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS WEEKEND, WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR WIND CHILLS RISE ABOVE ZERO BY SUNDAY.
POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW AND TRAVEL IMPACTS FOR THE WEEKEND...
WE ARE ALSO KEEPING AN EYE ON THE SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM EXPECTED
TO IMPACT THE SOUTHERN US. AS THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GETS
SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF OUR AREA ON FRIDAY BY THE AFOREMENTIONED
STRONG ARCTIC HIGH, OUR AREA WON'T SEE ANY IMPACTS UNTIL THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS STRONG, PHASED SYSTEM WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY, ARRIVING TO OUR AREA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE GFS AND ECMWF STILL HAVE DIFFERENCES IN EXACT
TIMING, TRACK, AND SNOW AMOUNTS, HOWEVER, THEY ARE STARTING TO
AGREE MORE ON A SOLUTION. OVERNIGHT, THE GFS FINALLY CAVED TO
THE ECMWF AND IS TRENDING MORE NORTHWARD, WHICH ALIGNS WITH THE
ECMWF (AND THE NAM) ON THE MORE NORTHWARD TRACK OF THE SYSTEM.
WITH THIS IN MIND, THERE ARE STILL UNCERTAINTIES BUT CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING IN ACCUMULATING SNOW. IN COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORING NWS OFFICES, A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FROM 7 PM EST SATURDAY TO 7 PM EDT SUNDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
US 24 CORRIDOR. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE, THIS WATCH MAY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA, BUT
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF US 30. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF TO
TAP INTO, AMPLE LIFT, AND A DEEP DGZ, THIS STRONG SYSTEM WILL
ALLOW FOR VERY HIGH SLRS. WITH ALL OF THE COLD AIR ALREADY IN
PLACE FROM THE ARCTIC HIGH, SNOW COULD REALLY ADD UP IN SOME
PLACES. HAVE RAISED SLRS FOR SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR MODELS
POSSIBLY UNDERDOING THE SLRS. RATIOS WILL LIKELY BE GREATER THAN
SEASONAL AVERAGE RATIOS OF 13:1, POTENTIALLY REACHING AS HIGH
AS 20:1 AT TIMES (CREATING A LIGHT AND FLUFFY SNOW). AT THIS
TIME, I AM NOT CONFIDENT OR READY TO GIVE OUT EXACT SNOW
AMOUNTS, BUT I WILL SAY THAT THE WINTER STORM WATCH AREA IS THE
BEST LOCATION TO GET 6"+. PREPARE NOW FOR WINTER WEATHER TO
IMPACT TRAVEL OVER THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. SOUTH OF US 24 WILL ALSO BE WHERE NORTHWEST
WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 20 TO 25 MPH DURING THE WATCH
TIMEFRAME, SO THERE IS ALSO LIKELY GOING TO BE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW TOO REGARDLESS OF HOW MUCH FALLS. STAY TUNED FOR
FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES!
INTO EARLY TO MIDDLE NEXT WEEK, AN ACTIVE PATTERN REMAINS WITH
PERSISTENT WESTERLY FLOW, CHANCES FOR LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW, AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BEHIND THE WEEKEND'S WINTER STORM,
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO REDEVELOP
DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE
TEENS AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS CONTINUE. WIND CHILLS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY 'WARMER' BY EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE SINGLE DIGITS, ALTHOUGH
THIS MAY NOT BE THAT NOTICEABLE SINCE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1139 PM EST THU JAN 22 2026
ARCTIC AIR WRAPS IN THIS TAF PERIOD WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 25 KNOTS. LAKE PLUME WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN THIS
REGIME WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY SETTLING IN FOR MOST OF FRIDAY.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL MAINLY IMPACT KSBN AFTER 09Z WITH
TIMES OF IFR TO MVFR VISBY'S AND LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ FRIDAY TO 10 AM
EST /9 AM CST/ SATURDAY FOR INZ005>009-012>015-017-018-
020-022>026-103-104-116-203-204-216.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR INZ018-022>027-032>034.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR INZ027-
032>034.
OH...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR OHZ001-002.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR OHZ002-004-005-015-016-024-025.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ004-
005-015-016-024-025.
MI...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR MIZ078>081-177-277.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL
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