564
FXUS63 KIWX 232348
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
648 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER LATE THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
- A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT, SUB ZERO
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL RESULT WIND CHILLS OF 15 TO 20 BELOW
ZERO.
- WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES CONTINUE FROM 7 PM SAT THROUGH 7 PM
SUN, WITH PORTIONS OF THE PREVIOUS WATCH UPGRADED TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING WHERE CONFIDENCE IS GREATEST FOR 6 INCHES OR
MORE OF SNOWFALL.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW FREEZING FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT 7 DAYS, WITH PERIODS OF SUB ZERO WIND CHILLS ALONG WITH
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
BLUF: AS NOTED IN THE KEY MESSAGES, ENOUGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN
A PORTION OF THE WINTER STORM WATCH AREA TO WARRANT UPGRADING
TO A WARNING. ALL OTHER COLD WEATHER AND WINTER PRECIP HEADLINES
REMAIN UNCHANGED WITH THIS PACKAGE. WILL BREAK THINGS DOWN
BELOW.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND DANGEROUS COLD (THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING)...
BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN RATHER PERSISTENT
WORKING INLAND WITH SOME EVEN REACHING OUR OFFICE. WE HAVE NOT
RECEIVED A LOT OF SNOW REPORTS, BUT ACCUMULATIONS HERE HAVE ONLY
BEEN A FEW TENTHS GIVEN VERY SMALL FLAKE SIZE. RAPID VSBY CHANGES,
SOMETIMES AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE, HAVE OCCURRED WHICH COMBINED
WITH THE BREEZY CONDITIONS IS CAUSING TRAVEL ISSUES IN SOME
LOCATIONS. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT, SLOWLY
DECREASING THEIR INLAND EXTENT. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN
INCH COULD OCCUR, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA, THE BITTER COLD HAS SETTLED IN WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND WIND CHILLS WELL
BELOW ZERO. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT, BUT THE FRESH SNOW,
AREAS OF CLEARING AND PEAK OF THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD SUB ZERO LOWS. WIND CHILLS OF 15 TO 20 BELOW ARE STILL
EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE SOME IMPROVEMENT OCCURS.
WINTER STORM TO BRING IMPACTS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA (SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING)...
MUCH OF THE PREVIOUS THINKING REMAINS UNCHANGED AS A WINTER STORM
WILL IMPACT A LARGE PART OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN US WITH CONTINUED
COLD TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS ALL SNOW ON THE NW PORTIONS OF THE
SYSTEM TO ICE AND EVEN THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER SOUTHEAST. FOR OUR
AREA, MODELS REMAIN IN THE SAME OVERALL CAMPS AS THE OVERNIGHT RUNS
AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF INTEREST IS STILL OFFSHORE AND NOT
BEING SAMPLED BY THE UPPER AIR NETWORK QUITE YET. THE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOWFALL STILL APPEARS TO EXIST IN FAR
SOUTHEAST AREAS (ROUGHLY SOUTHEAST OF MARION TO OTTAWA) BASED ON
ENSEMBLES AND PROBABILISTIC DATA. NORTHWEST OF THIS LINE, THERE IS
TOO MUCH VARIATION IN THE POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS WITH A LIKIHOOD
FOR ADVISORY LEVEL ACCUMULATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE CURRENT WATCH. THE
WATCH COULD BE EXPANDED NW, BUT AT THIS STAGE CONFIDENCE IS LESS
THAN 50% ON WARNING LEVEL ACCUMULATIONS. AFTER MUCH IN HOUSE AND
INTEROFFICE COLLABORATION, IT WAS DECIDED TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING
FOR THE AFORMENTIONED AREA AND DEFER ANY OTHER CHANGES GIVEN THE
LARGE SPREAD IN POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS NORTHWEST OF THIS LINE.
LIGHT SNOW DOES ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SAT EVENING, BUT
THE MOST FAVORABLE PERIOD OF ACCUMULATIONS LOOKS TO BE FROM ROUGHLY
18Z SUN THROUGH 3Z MON. WHILE THE VALID TIME OF THE WINTER HEADLINES
REMAINED UNCHANGED, IT COULD BE ARGUED THAT SOME EXTENSION IN THE
END TIME LATER INTO SUNDAY EVENING AND MAYBE POSTPONING THE START
TIME. HAVE DEFERRED THIS TO THE NEXT SHIFT.
BEYOND SUNDAY NIGHT, WE REMAIN IN THE VERY COLD PATTERN WITH ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES NOT EVEN IN VIEW THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD. WEAK
NW FLOW SYSTEMS WILL BRING SMALL SNOW CHANCES ALONG WITH REINFORCING
SHOTS OF COLD AIR.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 646 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH VISIBILITIES
FREQUENTLY REDUCED TO UNDER 1 MILE AT KSBN. MUCH OF THE LOWER
LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES IN THIS SETUP ARE IN THE -20 TO -30 DEG C
RANGE WHICH IS CREATING VERY SMALL FLAKE SIZE WHICH IS IDEAL FOR
REDUCING VISIBILITIES DESPITE THE LIGHT SNOWFALL RATES. AS WE
HEAD TOWARD LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT, THE EFFECTS FROM AN
EXPANSIVE UPSTREAM LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL COME INTO PLAY
WITH LAND BREEZE DEVELOPMENT THAT WILL TAKE FAVORED AREA FOR
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS CLOSER TO SHORELINE AND DISPLACED WEST
OF KSBN. UNTIL THAT TIME, VSBYS UNDER 1 MILE WILL BE LIKELY AT
TIMES THROUGH AROUND 03Z. OVERALL QUIET WEATHER THE REMAINDER OF
THIS FORECAST VALID PERIOD AS LOW CLOUDS ARE REPLACED WITH MID
LEVEL CLOUDS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE BEYOND THE
ENDING OF THIS FORECAST VALID PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO
SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH, AND DEVELOPING INVERTED SFC TROUGH TO THE
SOUTH.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ SATURDAY FOR
INZ005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-
116-203-204-216.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR INZ018-022>025.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
INZ026-027-032>034.
OH...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR OHZ001-002-
004-005-015-016-024-025.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR OHZ002-004-005-015.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
OHZ016-024-025.
MI...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ078>081-
177-277.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...FISHER
AVIATION...MARSILI
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