107
FXUS63 KIWX 011836
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
136 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW ARRIVING MONDAY MORNING COULD IMPACT THE MORNING
COMMUTE, ESPECIALLY AROUND THE GREATER SOUTH BEND AREA.
- SNOW MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY BRINGING ACCUMULATIONS OF
LESS THAN 1 INCH.
- NOT QUITE AS COLD THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWS IN
THE TEENS TO SINGLE-DIGITS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 136 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2026
A NARROW UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH MINNESOTA AND
IOWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN AREA OF SNOW ENCOUNTERING A VERY
DRY AIR MASS, CHARACTERIZED BY 15F DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS. AS A
RESULT, VERY FEW OBSERVING STATIONS ARE REPORTING SNOW BENEATH
RADAR RETURNS. THE AREA OF SNOW IS FORECAST TO FADE THIS
AFTERNOON, YET ADDITIONAL RETURNS FURTHER NORTHWEST ARE FORECAST
TO SURVIVE INTO OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY AS THE
TROUGH DROPS SOUTH. DEW POINTS HERE HAVE ALREADY RECOVERED INTO
THE TEENS AT SOME STATIONS WITH 805-MB WARM AIR ADVECTION
UNDERWAY.
LIGHT SNOW FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE, PRIMARILY IN NORTHWEST IN
AND SOUTHWEST MI, COULD RESULT IN INSTANCES OF SLIPPERY TRAVEL.
LIMITATIONS TO THIS SYSTEM INCLUDE AN ELEVATED AND POORLY SATURATED
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE, ALONG WITH LACKLUSTER MOISTURE AND FORCING.
SNOW TOTALS WILL CERTAINLY BE LESS THAN 1 INCH, WITH THE GREATEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR ACCUMULATION ALONG AND NORTH OF US 6 AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED IN THIS SPACE. THIS SYSTEM NOW LOOKS TO HAVE EXITED THE
FORT WAYNE AREA BEFORE THE EVENING COMMUTE. LACKLUSTER
INVERSION HEIGHTS (LESS THEN 5KFT) LOOK TO LIMIT ANY LAKE EFFECT
SNOW CHANCES BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE.
UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS QUICKLY REBOUND AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES
SHAPE TUESDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
WEDNESDAY PERMITS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST,
KNOCKING DOWN TEMPERATURES FOR A DAY. THE NEXT CLIPPER ARRIVES
FRIDAY WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1155 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2026
QUIET, DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. CHANGES ARE COMING THOUGH FOR MONDAY AS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PICK
UP THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 10KTS. CLOUDS ADVECT IN THIS EVENING
AND CEILINGS WILL RAPIDLY DROP OVERNIGHT. EXPECT VFR CEILINGS
UNTIL ABOUT 03Z-06Z MONDAY, THEN IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
WILL PREVAIL AFTER 06Z-09Z MONDAY AS LIGHT SNOW BEGINS. AS
MONDAY MORNING PROGRESSES, CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DROP EVEN
FURTHER TO BETWEEN 500-1000 FT. SNOW EXITS THE AREA AROUND THE
END OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD, ALTHOUGH LOW CEILINGS WILL
REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST THE AFTERNOON.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BROWN
AVIATION...JOHNSON
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page