087
FXUS63 KIWX 020002
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
702 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW ARRIVING EARLY MONDAY MORNING COULD IMPACT THE
MORNING COMMUTE, ESPECIALLY AROUND THE GREATER SOUTH BEND
AREA.
- SNOW MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY BRINGING ACCUMULATIONS OF
LESS THAN 1 INCH.
- NOT QUITE AS COLD THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWS IN
THE TEENS TO SINGLE-DIGITS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 136 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2026
A NARROW UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH MINNESOTA AND
IOWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN AREA OF SNOW ENCOUNTERING A VERY
DRY AIR MASS, CHARACTERIZED BY 15F DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS. AS A
RESULT, VERY FEW OBSERVING STATIONS ARE REPORTING SNOW BENEATH
RADAR RETURNS. THE AREA OF SNOW IS FORECAST TO FADE THIS
AFTERNOON, YET ADDITIONAL RETURNS FURTHER NORTHWEST ARE FORECAST
TO SURVIVE INTO OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY AS THE
TROUGH DROPS SOUTH. DEW POINTS HERE HAVE ALREADY RECOVERED INTO
THE TEENS AT SOME STATIONS WITH 805-MB WARM AIR ADVECTION
UNDERWAY.
LIGHT SNOW FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE, PRIMARILY IN NORTHWEST IN
AND SOUTHWEST MI, COULD RESULT IN INSTANCES OF SLIPPERY TRAVEL.
LIMITATIONS TO THIS SYSTEM INCLUDE AN ELEVATED AND POORLY SATURATED
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE, ALONG WITH LACKLUSTER MOISTURE AND FORCING.
SNOW TOTALS WILL CERTAINLY BE LESS THAN 1 INCH, WITH THE GREATEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR ACCUMULATION ALONG AND NORTH OF US 6 AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED IN THIS SPACE. THIS SYSTEM NOW LOOKS TO HAVE EXITED THE
FORT WAYNE AREA BEFORE THE EVENING COMMUTE. LACKLUSTER
INVERSION HEIGHTS (LESS THEN 5KFT) LOOK TO LIMIT ANY LAKE EFFECT
SNOW CHANCES BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE.
UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS QUICKLY REBOUND AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES
SHAPE TUESDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
WEDNESDAY PERMITS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST,
KNOCKING DOWN TEMPERATURES FOR A DAY. THE NEXT CLIPPER ARRIVES
FRIDAY WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 654 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2026
INITIALLY VFR CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR AS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. CURRENT REFLECTIVITY ON RADAR
UPSTREAM IN THE IL/CHICAGO AREA DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE
MATERIALIZING INTO LIGHT SNOW AT THE SURFACE YET PER
OBSERVATIONS. THIS WILL PROBABLY BE THE CASE AS THE SYSTEM RUNS
INTO DRY AIR CURRENTLY LODGED OVER THE TERMINALS, HOWEVER LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WE'LL BEGIN TO SEE LIGHT SNOW AT
KSBN FIRST THEN KFWA CLOSER TO 12-15Z. OBS WITHIN THE DEEPER
MOISTURE PLUME UPSTREAM HAVE VISIBILITIES AROUND 1 1/2SM TO
4-5SM, WITH CEILINGS OF 1500-2500FT FOR THE MOST PART. THERE ARE
A FEW POCKETS WHERE CEILINGS ARE BETWEEN 400-800FT. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS WILL BE THE CASE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
NORTHERN INDIANA. WINDS OUT OF THE S-SW THIS EVENING SHIFT
TOWARDS THE W-SW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BROWN
AVIATION...MCD
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