546
FXUS63 KIWX 020604
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
104 AM EST MON FEB 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW ARRIVING EARLY MONDAY MORNING COULD IMPACT THE
MORNING COMMUTE, ESPECIALLY AROUND THE GREATER SOUTH BEND
AREA.
- SNOW MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY BRINGING ACCUMULATIONS OF
LESS THAN 1 INCH.
- NOT QUITE AS COLD THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWS IN
THE TEENS TO SINGLE-DIGITS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 136 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2026
A NARROW UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH MINNESOTA AND
IOWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN AREA OF SNOW ENCOUNTERING A VERY
DRY AIR MASS, CHARACTERIZED BY 15F DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS. AS A
RESULT, VERY FEW OBSERVING STATIONS ARE REPORTING SNOW BENEATH
RADAR RETURNS. THE AREA OF SNOW IS FORECAST TO FADE THIS
AFTERNOON, YET ADDITIONAL RETURNS FURTHER NORTHWEST ARE FORECAST
TO SURVIVE INTO OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY AS THE
TROUGH DROPS SOUTH. DEW POINTS HERE HAVE ALREADY RECOVERED INTO
THE TEENS AT SOME STATIONS WITH 805-MB WARM AIR ADVECTION
UNDERWAY.
LIGHT SNOW FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE, PRIMARILY IN NORTHWEST IN
AND SOUTHWEST MI, COULD RESULT IN INSTANCES OF SLIPPERY TRAVEL.
LIMITATIONS TO THIS SYSTEM INCLUDE AN ELEVATED AND POORLY SATURATED
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE, ALONG WITH LACKLUSTER MOISTURE AND FORCING.
SNOW TOTALS WILL CERTAINLY BE LESS THAN 1 INCH, WITH THE GREATEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR ACCUMULATION ALONG AND NORTH OF US 6 AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED IN THIS SPACE. THIS SYSTEM NOW LOOKS TO HAVE EXITED THE
FORT WAYNE AREA BEFORE THE EVENING COMMUTE. LACKLUSTER
INVERSION HEIGHTS (LESS THEN 5KFT) LOOK TO LIMIT ANY LAKE EFFECT
SNOW CHANCES BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE.
UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS QUICKLY REBOUND AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES
SHAPE TUESDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
WEDNESDAY PERMITS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST,
KNOCKING DOWN TEMPERATURES FOR A DAY. THE NEXT CLIPPER ARRIVES
FRIDAY WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1253 AM EST MON FEB 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR IN CIGS/VSBYS AS
A CLIPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. CURRENT RADAR
DOES SHOW LIGHT RETURNS CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN IN/EASTERN
IL BORDER AS OF 06Z MON. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW QUICKLY THESE
INCOMING SNOW SHOWERS BEGIN TO REACH THE SURFACE WITH THE DRY
AIR CURRENTLY IN PLACE, HOWEVER BETWEEN 12-15Z MON THIS SHOULD
BEGIN TO HAPPEN WITH KSBN FIRST THEN KFWA AS THE DISTURBANCE
MOVES EASTWARD. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO KSBN AFTER 01Z
TUE WHILE KFWA SHALL RETURN TO MVFR IN LOWERED CIGS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS TAF PERIOD. WINDS OUT OF THE S-SW THIS
EVENING VEERING TOWARDS THE W-SW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BROWN
AVIATION...ANDERSEN
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