258
FXUS63 KIWX 031624
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1124 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A BAND OF SNOW CONTINUES AFFECT AREAS SOUTH OF US-30 INTO THIS
MORNING. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN
AN INCH AND LOWERED VISIBILITY HAS BEEN OCCURRING ALLOW FOR
THE CHANCE FOR SOME HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS UNDERNEATH IT.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES MODERATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER BRIEF
SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR FOR THE WEEKEND LATE FRIDAY/EARLY WEEKEND.
- SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN HANDLING A BRINGING A BAND OF HIGHER
REFLECTIVITY THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND SO HAVE
RESORTED TO JUST TRACKING IT AND EXTRAPOLATING IT OUT. THIS APPEARS
TO BE FORCED ALONG BY A MID LEVEL VORT AND IS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
UPPER JET. ARX LACROSSE REPORTED QUICKLY SNOW COVERED ROADS BACK IN
IA AND WATERLOO SAW VISIBILITIES DROP UNDER 1 MI INDICATING HEAVY
SNOW. SINCE TRACKING IT BACK OVER IA/IL AREA, OBS/REFLECTIVITY HAVE
WEAKENED TO SOME EXTENT, BUT HAVE ISSUED AN SPS FOR THE SNOW AS IT
MOVES THROUGH FOR SOME SLICK CONDITIONS.
WITH THIS AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF MOVING THROUGH, IT WOULD APPEAR
THAT THE PRECIP SHIELD FROM THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL STRUGGLE TO GET
TO OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES FROM WHITE TO JAY. MEANWHILE, THE
NAM IS STILL HANGING ON TO BRINGING A BOUNDARY SOUTH THROUGH MI.
LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL PARAMETERS ARE VERY MARGINAL, BUT GIVEN HOW
EASY IT HAS BEEN TO PRODUCE SNOWFALL AND THAT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY, WILL STILL CARRY POPS WITH IT.
NORTHERLY FLOW DOWN LAKE MI HAS A BRIEF PERIOD OF CONVERGENCE AROUND
LAPORTE AND POTENTIALLY ON SOUTH. WILL RETAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR THAT, BUT AGAIN LES PARAMETERS APPEAR MEAGER FOR THAT
OCCURRENCE.
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO AT LEAST EARLY THURSDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AND MID LEVEL RIDGING CALMS DOWN SENSIBLE WEATHER HAZARDS.
TEMPEARTURE-WISE, HIGHS IN THE 20S, BECOME HIGHS IN THE 30S FOR
FRIDAY AS A THETA-E PLUME SURGES THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES FALL
BACK INTO THE 20S FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE COLD AIR
BEHIND THE LOW.
THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN HANDLING THE SYSTEM FROM THURSDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE COMES DOWN FROM CANADA BRINGS A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW AS EARLY AS THURSDAY MORNING, BUT REALLY ONLY
THE ECMWF PRODUCES PRECIPITATION. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMES IN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY AND BRINGS ADDITIONAL DISJOINTED
OPPORTUNITIES FOR LIGHT SNOW. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS OVER LENAWEE
COUNTY HAVE THE BETTER MOISTURE JUST ABOVE THE DGZ AND THE
OMEGA WITHIN THE DGZ. THIS SETUP WOULD TEND TO LOWER SLRS
ESPECIALLY WITH A LACK OF A GULF MOISTURE PLUME. THIS ONE COMES
WITH A LITTLE BIT MORE AGREEMENT IN MODELS. SYSTEM SNOW PUSHES
OUT FRIDAY MORNING AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW TAKES OVER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING OF THE VORT MAX AND THE
ARRIVAL OF THE COLD IS A LITTLE DISJOINTED AND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH IS ALREADY EAST OF LAKE MI AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT,
WHICH LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW. AT LEAST, IT
APPEARS THAT THERE'S MORE AGREEMENT IN THE HANDLING OF THE COLD
AIR THAT STARTS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY WANES FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS A LITTLE BIT MORE WEST
THAN THE ECMWF WITH A SECOND PUSH OF COLD AIR ON SUNDAY.
WE'LL BE WATCHING SOMETIME NEXT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY FOR ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO COME TOWARDS THE AREA AS A TROUGH PICKS UP AN
UPPER LOW THAT WAS STALLED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN US. GIVEN HOW
COLD WE'VE BEEN, WE'LL NEED TO WATCH FOR SOME FREEZING
PRECIPITATION, BUT THAT'LL DEPEND WHERE THE OVERRUNNING/WARM FRONT
SETS UP. THE ECMWF IS CURRENTLY MODELING THAT BOUNDARY TO
RESIDE NORTH OF THE AREA, WHILE THE GFS HAS IT OVERHEAD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1123 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
WEAK COLD FRONT SWINGS SOUTH THROUGH THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT WSW WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY (LIGHT, <8
KNOTS) IN ITS WAKE. A FEW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH MVFR CIGS LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. SOME DRY ADVECTION NOTED INTO
TONIGHT WHICH COULD SCATTER THIS CLOUD DECK TO VFR. OPTED TO
HOLD WITH HIGH MVFR FOR NOW HOWEVER GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ROLLER
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL
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