326
FXUS63 KIWX 061759
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1259 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR RETURNS.
WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND -10 ARE EXPECTED IN NW OHIO BY
SATURDAY MORNING.
- 1-3" OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF US-31
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH A PERIOD OF
LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 225 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2026
SECOND SHORTWAVE ON THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF 150KT UPPER LEVEL JET NOW
RACING INTO THE AREA. HEALTHY LLJ/THETA-E SURGE NOTED WITH THIS WAVE
AS WELL AS GOOD LOW/MIDLEVEL FGEN IN A REGION OF REDUCED STABILITY
ALOFT. ALL OF THIS IS LEADING TO BANDS OF MODERATE (BRIEFLY HEAVY)
SNOW UPSTREAM THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED, THE SAVING GRACE HERE IS THAT THE
WINDOW OF FORCING IS VERY BRIEF, ONLY ABOUT 3-5 HOURS FOR ANY ONE
LOCATION. SNOWFALL RATES MAY REACH 1"/HR DURING THAT TIME BUT THOSE
HEAVIER RATES SHOULD REMAIN MORE ISOLATED AND BRIEF. INCREASED SNOW
AMOUNTS SOME TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BUT STILL ONLY GETTING 1-3" GIVEN
LOWER THAN NORMAL SNOW RATIOS (10-12:1). WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT DURING THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST SNOW AND TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY BE
JUST BELOW FREEZING. HAVE THEREFORE DECIDED AGAINST A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY AND WILL INSTEAD CONTINUE TO HANDLE WITH SPS'S. THIS SNOW
WILL END EVERYWHERE BY 16Z. CAA AND GUSTY WINDS DO RAMP UP LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS OCCURS BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. SIMILARLY, SOME DRIFTING SNOW IS
POSSIBLE IN OPEN/RURAL AREAS SIMILAR TO LAST EVENING BUT DEGREE OF
WARM AIR DURING THE DAY/LOW SNOW RATIOS MAY LIMIT THE DEGREE OF
BLOWING/DRIFTING. HERE AGAIN EXPECT IMPACTS LOW ENOUGH TO HANDLE
WITH SPS'S AS NEEDED.
OF SLIGHTLY GREATER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LES IN OUR W/NW
COUNTIES TONIGHT INTO SAT. A FAVORABLE NNW FETCH WILL DEVELOP
(THOUGH SOME BACKING OVER THE U.P. LIMITS LAKE SUPERIOR CONNECTION)
WITH HINTS OF A SINGLE, DOMINANT BAND TRYING TO DEVELOP. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS AREN'T GREAT BUT AREN'T TERRIBLE EITHER WITH INVERSION
HEIGHTS AROUND 5 KFT AND AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR-ZERO THETA-
E LAPSE RATES. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST MEASURABLE SNOW OVER
BERRIEN, LA PORTE, WESTERN ST. JOSEPH (IN) TO SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE
POP'S OVERNIGHT AND WELL INTO SAT WITH THE HEAVIEST RATES EXPECTED
AROUND 06Z TONIGHT. TOTAL AMOUNTS ARE MUCH LESS CERTAIN THOUGH. WILL
HOLD WITH 1-3" FOR NOW BUT FURTHER REFINEMENTS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE.
THE OTHER MINOR ISSUE WILL BE WIND CHILLS AROUND -10F IN OUR EASTERN
ZONES AWAY FROM THE LAKE CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT. THIS IS SHORT OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR US WITH LIMITED IMPACTS ANTICIPATED ANYWAY
GIVEN SEVERAL RECENT COLD SPELLS AND SATURDAY TIMING. NO HEADLINES
NEEDED.
ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ONE
MORE SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SUN. THIS WAVE IS
NOTABLY WEAKER AND DRIER BUT SHOULD STILL SQUEEZE OUT ANOTHER
DUSTING OF SNOW WITH THE BEST CHANCES CURRENTLY ALONG/NORTH OF US-
30. PATTERN FINALLY SHIFTS A BIT BY NEXT WEEK AS PERSISTENT LONGWAVE
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS FOLDS EASTWARD. THIS RESULTS IN
PRONOUNCED WAA ALOFT BUT OF COURSE SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE HEAVILY
MODULATED BY COLD, DEEP SNOWPACK OVER MOST OF THE AREA. A RUN AT LOW
40S IS POSSIBLE BY TUE/WED. THIS WILL ALSO CORRESPOND TO OUR NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIP. STILL SOME CONCERN FOR FREEZING RAIN GIVEN VERY
COLD SURFACE TEMPS BUT DEGREE OF WAA ALOFT IS IMPRESSIVE AND WILL
LIKELY SUPPORT JUST RAIN TUE NIGHT/WED TRANSITIONING BACK TO LIGHT
SNOW IN CAA WED NIGHT/THU. STILL A LOT OF DETAILS TO HAMMER OUT IN
THIS TIMEFRAME THOUGH.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1258 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2026
STRONGER SURFACE PRESSURE RISES WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. COLD ADVECTION WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
RAMP UP, BUT WILL BECOME MORE ENHANCED BY THIS EVENING AS
SECONDARY STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH. SOME
DEEPENING OF MIXED LAYER THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT GUSTS INTO
THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE (A FEW STRONGER GUSTS). THIS COLD
ADVECTION IS BEING ACCOMPANIED BY STRONGER DRY AIR ADVECTION
ALSO WHICH SHOULD LIMIT DURATION OF ADDITIONAL IFR CIGS TO THE
FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THIS VALID PERIOD. A SECONDARY VORT MAX
TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MAY PROMOTE SOME MORE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT GIVEN DRY AIR WORKING IN ABOVE THE MIXED LAYER, THESE WILL
LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED AND OF SCATTERED COVERAGE. LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME DOMINANT THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL REFINEMENTS WILL BE NEEDED WITH
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LAKE EFFECT BANDS WILL EVOLVE.
OVERALL LAKE PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE, BUT
DURATION OF THE SETUP COULD YIELD SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...MARSILI
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