027
FXUS63 KIWX 071025
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
525 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF THIS MORNING WITH ONLY
A FEW TENTHS OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
- ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
- AFTER HIGHS AROUND 20 TODAY, WE WILL SLOWLY WARM UP NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGHS AROUND 40 BY TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
LES ONGOING ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST CWA THIS MORNING IN FAVORABLE NNW
FETCH. ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN SEVERELY LIMITED THOUGH DUE TO
UPSTREAM DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT (SOURCE IS NORTHERN WI/WESTERN U.P.
WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE BELOW ZERO) AND INVERSION HEIGHTS ONLY
AROUND 5 KFT. THIS IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW BUT
INTENSITY WILL CONTINUE TO WANE THROUGH THE DAY AS WINDS SLOWLY
BACK, INVERSION HEIGHTS DROP, AND DRY AIR TAKES AN INCREASING TOLL.
ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WILL ONLY BE A FEW TENTHS AND SHOULD
TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES BY LATE MORNING, DRY BY AFTERNOON. CONTINUED
LIGHT CAA TODAY WILL KEEP HIGHS AROUND 20F BUT SHOULD SEE SOME SOME
SUN BETWEEN DECAYING LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS.
YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ARRIVES OVERNIGHT BUT THIS ONE IS DECIDEDLY
WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK IS FAR
LESS IMPRESSIVE AS IS THE CORRESPONDING LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION
AND STABILITY PROFILE. STILL A BRIEF WINDOW WITH SUFFICIENT
ASCENT/FGEN AND MOISTURE TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW ROUGHLY 09-15Z
THOUGH AND BUMPED UP POPS AS A RESULT. MODELS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING
AROUND WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE FGEN BAND BUT LATEST GUIDANCE
SEEMS TO SETTLE ROUGHLY ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF US-30. HERE,
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE BUT AREAS NE AND SW OF
THIS BAND COULD EASILY REMAIN DRY. LOWS TONIGHT MAY TOUCH SINGLE
DIGITS BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND NO COLD WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE
NEEDED.
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FINALLY SHIFTS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LARGE RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS FINALLY BREAKS EAST. WAA BEGINS LATE SUN
(PUSHING HIGHS INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S) AND REALLY INCREASES LATE MON
INTO TUE WHEN 850MB TEMPS EXCEED 10C. OBVIOUSLY OUR DEEP, COLD
SNOWPACK WILL LIMIT HIGHS BUT SOME 40S POSSIBLE ON TUE, ESPECIALLY
IN THE SOUTHWEST WHERE SNOWPACK IS MUCH THINNER. ENSEMBLE-HEAVY NBM
STILL GIVES SOME LOW CHANCE POP'S TUE NIGHT/WED AM BUT THESE WILL
LIKELY BE REMOVED IF TRENDS CONTINUE. BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP
LATER IN THE WEEK BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING A HUGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD
DURING THIS TIME AND CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SCENARIO IS VERY
LOW. THIS IMPACTS BOTH POP'S AND TEMPS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 525 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST ON RADAR BUT ARE STILL ONLY
VIRGA DUE TO LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS. THIS WAS OVERCOME AT
NEARBY KBEH, THUS, THE MENTION CONTINUES IN THE TAF BUT IS NOW
ONLY 6SM. THE BAND HAS SHIFTED NOTABLY TO THE EAST IN RESPONSE
TO INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS BAND
DISSIPATING IN THE WINDOW OF 15Z.
OTHERWISE TODAY, AT BOTH TAF SITES, AN UNCERTAIN CLOUD COVER
FORECAST WITH BROKEN MVFR STRATUS SPILLING IN FROM MICHIGAN.
GUIDANCE APPEARS TO TOO PESSIMISTIC VS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS
WHICH DECREASES FORECAST CONFIDENCE. CLOUD COVER INCREASES
FURTHER TONIGHT AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM ARRIVING NEAR 09Z.
UPSTREAM VISIBILITY OBSERVATIONS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED, BUT
FOR NOW, LOW-END MVFR WITH SNOW APPEARS MOST LIKELY. CANNOT
RULE OUT A PERIOD OF IFR VISIBILITY DEPENDING ON SNOWFLAKE SIZE.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ001-
002-004-005-015-016-024-025.
MI...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ081.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AGD
AVIATION...BROWN
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