722
FXUS63 KIWX 211746
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1246 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH 2-4 INCHES
POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS LA PORTE AND NORTHWESTERN ST. JOSEPH
COUNTIES IN IN; AND BERRIEN COUNTY, MI.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT.
- TRENDING WARMER FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 225 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
TODAY WE GET A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION ACTION AT LEAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF I-69. A
TROUGH SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AREA LATER TODAY BRINGING SYNOPTIC COOLING ALONG
WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. LOWS ON SUNDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.HIGHS ON
SUNDAY ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
TRANSITION TO A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND WE
WILL BEGIN TO SEE A TRANSITION TO A MORE LAKE EFFECT VERSUS
SYSTEM SNOWFALL AS THE TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION.
A SHORTWAVE RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING WILL HELP TO INTENSIFY ANY LES SNOW BANDS. AT
THIS TIME THERE CONTINUES TO BE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW
ORGANIZED THIS LES EVENT WILL GET, WILL THIS BE MORE OF A MULTI-
BAND SETUP OVER LA PORTE, ST. JOSEPH COUNTIES IN INDIANA AND
SOUTHERN HALF OF BERRIEN COUNTY IN MICHIGAN WHERE PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS/INTENSITIES WILL BE LESS FOCUSED OR WILL THERE BE ENOUGH
ORGANIZATION FOR A SINGLE BAND THAT DEVELOPS OVER THIS AREA
WHERE MORE LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AT THIS
POINT SEEMS THERE MAY BE A LITTLE BIT OF BOTH SCENARIOS WHERE BY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY A MORE TRANSITION TO A SINGLE BAND
ALLOWS FOR MORE MODERATE TO EVEN LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOWFALL. THE
EXPECTATION WOULD BE AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES AFTER ALL IS SAID AND
DONE IN THE THREE AFOREMENTIONED COUNTIES WITH PERHAPS A FEW
LOCALLY HEAVIER (AROUND 5 INCHES) WOULD BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE,
EVERYWHERE ELSE FURTHER FROM LAKE MICHIGAN A RANGE FROM A TRACE
TO 2 INCHES SEEMS LIKELY WITH THE MORE SYSTEM SNOWFALL.
COLDER AIR WILL SPILL IN WITH THE MORE NORTHERLY FLOW AND LOWS
MONDAY MORNING WILL DROP INTO THE LOW 20S ACROSS THE AREA AND
HIGHS ONLY WILL GET INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. A FEW
REMAINING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY MORNING
MAINLY IN AREAS NEAR THE LAKE.
A RETURN TO MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ARRIVES BY TUESDAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT WARMING TREND INTO MID-WEEK. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND
BRINGS A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON TUESDAY MAINLY NORTH
OF US-30. TUESDAY HIGHS WILL RANGE MAINLY IN THE 30S ACROSS THE
AREA WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FURTHER NORTH AND WARMER TO THE
SOUTH. WEDNESDAY HIGHS SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S
WITH EVEN A FEW 50S POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS MAINLY SOUTH OF
US-24. WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE PUSHES EASTWARD
THROUGH THE WESTERLY FLOW AND BRINGS CHANCES OF SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THURSDAY WHEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ARRIVES WITH A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL
INTRODUCE SOME MIXED PRECIP WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES TEMPORARILY
MOVING IN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE IN THE LOW 30S TO LOW 40S FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. LOWS ON FRIDAY MORNING WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID
20S. HOWEVER, THE COLDER AIR GIVES WAY TO A WARMING TREND WITH A
RETURN TO ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL WARM TO THE MID 40S TO EVEN LOWER 50S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1246 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AFTER 00Z, FIRST
AT KSBN AND LATER TONIGHT AT KFWA. MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CIGS
ARE ALREADY ONGOING AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH A TRANSITION TO LOW END MVFR AND EVEN IFR CIGS/VSBYS NEAR
OR AFTER 12Z SUN. SOME FINE TUNING WILL BE NEEDED IN COMING
ISSUANCES.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ANDERSEN
AVIATION...FISHER
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