371
FXUS63 KIWX 221153
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
653 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COMBINATION OF SYSTEM AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE AREA TODAY INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR CASS MI, BERRIEN MI, LAPORTE IN,
AND ST. JOSEPH IN COUNTIES.
- THROUGH MONDAY, ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3-5 INCHES AND THE
GREATEST IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ARE EXPECTED IN THE ADVISORY AREA.
FURTHER INLAND, LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED, WITH THE GREATEST TOTALS BORDERING THE ADVISORY
AREA. SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IS POSSIBLE. THE MONDAY
MORNING COMMUTE WILL BE IMPACTED.
- ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BUT CONFIDENCE IN EXACT DETAILS SUCH AS CHANCES AND PRECIP
TYPES REMAIN LOW. TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER LATER IN THE WORK
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ISN NOW IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES AND BRINGING LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE AREA
AS SEEN ON THIS MORNINGS CURRENT 08Z RADAR IMAGERY. SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT IS NOTED WITH A BAND OF SLIGHTLY HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION IN A WEST TO EAST LINE FROM ABOUT MICHIGAN CITY IN
LA PORTE COUNTY IN THROUGH TO TOPEKA IN LAGRANGE COUNTY IN.
EXPECTATIONS OF AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL WITH THE SYSTEM
COMPONENT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO A MORE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION THROUGH TODAY INTO MONDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH
SLIDES EASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE
TRANSITION TO THE MORE LAKE EFFECT COMPONENT OF THIS EVENT WITH
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT AMOUNT OF ORGANIZATION
WITHIN THE MESOBANDS AND WHETHER IT REMAINS MORE MULTIBAND IN
NATURE OR DOES DEVELOP INTO ONE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WOULD CREATE
HEAVIER MORE LOCALIZED SNOW AMOUNTS. STILL LOOKING AT PERHAPS A
MORE COMBINATION OF OUTCOMES WITH THE MORE NORTHERLY FLOW IN
PLACE EARLY MONDAY MORNING LEADING TO A CONCENTRATED BAND WHICH
COULD EASILY LEAD TO 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR ACCUMULATIONS.
WITH WIND GUSTS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY TODAY THERE WILL ALSO
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHES OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF RECENTLY
SNOWFALL CREATING ADDITIONAL HAZARDS FOR TRAVEL. STORM TOTALS
EXPECTED ARE 1 TO 3 INCHES IN AREAS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE LAKE
MICHIGAN AND 3 TO 5 INCHES FOR LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE LAKE WITH
SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR PARTS OF OUR NORTHEASTERN CWA CONTINUES THROUGH 1 PM EST
MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY MORNING WILL DIP INTO THE
LOWER 20S TO UPPER TEENS. LES SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY
MONDAY EVENING AS NORTHERLY WINDS SLACKEN. HIGHS ON MONDAY ONLY
WILL GET TO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS
TUESDAY MORNING MUCH COLDER RANGING FROM THE LOW TEENS TO UPPER
TEENS. THE COLDER AIRMASS WILL BE TEMPORARY AS SHORTWAVE
RIDGING PUSHES INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND WILL ALLOW FOR A
REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
SOME INCREASE IN THE UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST WITH GUIDANCE
BRINGING IN A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
THE THURSDAY SYSTEM LOOKS A BIT MORE ROBUST AS IT PUSHES WEST
ACROSS THE CONUS FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS PROBABLE ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY. THE EXACT EVOLUTION WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED AS POTENTIAL TRAVEL HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE PROSPECT OF MIXED PRECIP.
ZONAL FLOW RETURNS AT THE END OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR A WARMING
TREND FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE IN
LOW 40S TO LOW 50S AND SLIGHTLY WARMER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 637 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
PREDOMINANTLY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF
SITES, EVENTUALLY BECOMING VFR AT KFWA LATER IN THE PERIOD.
LIGHT SYSTEM SNOW TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A COUPLE OF PASSING
TROUGHS, IN ADDITION TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW, ARE EXPECTED. WNW
WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE NW THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 25KTS LIKELY (ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON). THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE LAKE EFFECT BANDS THIS EVENING
INTO LATE TONIGHT AND WHETHER OR NOT A MORE DOMINANT BAND WILL
SWIPE KSBN BRIEFLY BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTHWEST. IF THE BAND DOES
IMPACT THE AIRPORT, A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH
LIFR VISIBILITIES IS POSSIBLE. DEPENDING ON THE INLAND EXTENT
AND MOVEMENT OF THE BANDS, KFWA MAY ALSO SEE SNOW SHOWERS
PERSIST BEYOND 00Z WITH DROPS TO IFR/MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ MONDAY FOR
INZ103-104-203-204.
OH...NONE.
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ078-177-
277.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ANDERSEN
AVIATION...MCD
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