347
FXUS63 KIWX 221803
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
103 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COMBINATION OF SYSTEM AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE AREA TODAY INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR CASS MI, BERRIEN MI, LAPORTE IN,
AND ST. JOSEPH IN COUNTIES AND THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
ELKHART IN COUNTY.
- THROUGH MONDAY, ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3-5 INCHES AND THE
GREATEST IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ARE EXPECTED IN THE ADVISORY AREA.
FURTHER INLAND, LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED, WITH THE GREATEST TOTALS BORDERING THE ADVISORY
AREA. SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IS POSSIBLE. THE MONDAY
MORNING COMMUTE WILL BE IMPACTED.
- ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BUT CONFIDENCE IN EXACT DETAILS SUCH AS CHANCES AND PRECIP
TYPES REMAIN LOW. TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER LATER IN THE WORK
WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 815 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING,
WITH MAIN FOCUS ON EVOLVING SMALLER SCALE HEAVIER LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW BAND ACROSS SW LOWER MICHIGAN/FAR NORTHEAST
INDIANA. SOME BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING WHICH HAS AIDED IN A BAND
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FROM NORTHERN BERRIEN COUNTY EXTENDING
INTO NORTHERN ELKHART COUNTY. THIS SNOW IS LIKELY BEING ENHANCED
BY SOME BACKGROUND LOW LEVEL FGEN FORCING FROM SOUTHEAST LAKE
MICHIGAN TO THE FORT WAYNE VICINITY. RAP SHORT TERM FORECAST
PROGS INDICATE A MORE PROGRESSIVE/TRANSITORY NATURE TO THIS LOW
LEVEL FGEN FORCING BY LATE MORNING WHICH MAY TEND TO DIMINISH
THESE MORE INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS. IN THE MEANTIME, CONCERN IS
GROWING THAT 1 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES COULD LAST FOR
ANOTHER FEW HOURS IN ASSOCIATION THIS BAND WITH A QUICK 2 TO 4
INCH ACCUMULATION FROM NORTHERN BERRIEN INTO FAR WEST/NORTHWEST
ELKHART COUNTY. BASED ON RECENT MESOSCALE TRENDS, DID EXTEND THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY INTO ELKHART COUNTY WITH A 1 AM EST
TONIGHT EXPIRATION. A LULL IS EXPECTED FOR THIS LOCATION THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT ADDITIONAL BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVIER SNOW BANDS
ARE POSSIBLE FOR ELKHART COUNTY THIS EVENING BEFORE FOCUS LIKELY
SHIFTS WEST OVERNIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ISN NOW IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES AND BRINGING LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE AREA
AS SEEN ON THIS MORNINGS CURRENT 08Z RADAR IMAGERY. SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT IS NOTED WITH A BAND OF SLIGHTLY HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION IN A WEST TO EAST LINE FROM ABOUT MICHIGAN CITY IN
LA PORTE COUNTY IN THROUGH TO TOPEKA IN LAGRANGE COUNTY IN.
EXPECTATIONS OF AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL WITH THE SYSTEM
COMPONENT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO A MORE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION THROUGH TODAY INTO MONDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH
SLIDES EASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE
TRANSITION TO THE MORE LAKE EFFECT COMPONENT OF THIS EVENT WITH
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT AMOUNT OF ORGANIZATION
WITHIN THE MESOBANDS AND WHETHER IT REMAINS MORE MULTIBAND IN
NATURE OR DOES DEVELOP INTO ONE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WOULD CREATE
HEAVIER MORE LOCALIZED SNOW AMOUNTS. STILL LOOKING AT PERHAPS A
MORE COMBINATION OF OUTCOMES WITH THE MORE NORTHERLY FLOW IN
PLACE EARLY MONDAY MORNING LEADING TO A CONCENTRATED BAND WHICH
COULD EASILY LEAD TO 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR ACCUMULATIONS.
WITH WIND GUSTS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY TODAY THERE WILL ALSO
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHES OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF RECENTLY
SNOWFALL CREATING ADDITIONAL HAZARDS FOR TRAVEL. STORM TOTALS
EXPECTED ARE 1 TO 3 INCHES IN AREAS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE LAKE
MICHIGAN AND 3 TO 5 INCHES FOR LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE LAKE WITH
SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR PARTS OF OUR NORTHEASTERN CWA CONTINUES THROUGH 1 PM EST
MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY MORNING WILL DIP INTO THE
LOWER 20S TO UPPER TEENS. LES SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY
MONDAY EVENING AS NORTHERLY WINDS SLACKEN. HIGHS ON MONDAY ONLY
WILL GET TO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS
TUESDAY MORNING MUCH COLDER RANGING FROM THE LOW TEENS TO UPPER
TEENS. THE COLDER AIRMASS WILL BE TEMPORARY AS SHORTWAVE
RIDGING PUSHES INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND WILL ALLOW FOR A
REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
SOME INCREASE IN THE UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST WITH GUIDANCE
BRINGING IN A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
THE THURSDAY SYSTEM LOOKS A BIT MORE ROBUST AS IT PUSHES WEST
ACROSS THE CONUS FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS PROBABLE ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY. THE EXACT EVOLUTION WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED AS POTENTIAL TRAVEL HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE PROSPECT OF MIXED PRECIP.
ZONAL FLOW RETURNS AT THE END OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR A WARMING
TREND FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE IN
LOW 40S TO LOW 50S AND SLIGHTLY WARMER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1258 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
HEAVIER SNOW BAND HAS SHIFTED EAST OF KSBN WITH WHAT IS LEFT OF
IT NOW IMPACTING KFWA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR 2. SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE MORE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS IN NATURE BEHIND THE DEPARTING
TROUGH AND PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT TROUGH AND SHOT OF
COLDER AIR WHICH WILL RE-INVIGERATE DEVELOPMENT, IMPACTING KSBN
AND POINTS TO THE WEST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE BAND AND ITS DURATION/IMPACTS AT KSBN
AS IT SHIFTS WEST. ONLY CHANGES MADE TO KSBN TAF WAS TO ADJUST
FOR CURRENT TRENDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND ADD A FINITE
END TO THE SNOW TOWARDS 12Z MON (COULD BE EARLIER). KFWA WILL
LIKELY MISS THE BULK OF THE NEXT ROUND, BUT WILL STILL SEE SNOW
SHOWERS PERSIST SEVERAL MORE HOURS (JUST THE HEAVIEST WINDING
DOWN).
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR INZ005.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ MONDAY FOR
INZ103-104-203-204.
OH...NONE.
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ078-177-
277.
MARINE...NONE.
UPDATE...MARSILI
DISCUSSION...ANDERSEN
AVIATION...FISHER
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