396
FXUS63 KIWX 230930
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
430 AM EST MON FEB 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG
WITH SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH 1 PM EST TODAY.
- ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON OF 1 TO 3 INCHES, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. IMPACTS FOR THIS MORNINGS COMMUTE ARE LIKELY.
- RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT DETAILS SUCH AS PRECIP AMOUNTS AND TYPES
REMAIN LOW. TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER LATER IN THE WORK WEEK
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 304 AM EST MON FEB 23 2026
LES CONTINUES THIS MORNING HOWEVER A MORE MULTI-BAND MODE HAS
SINCE BECAME A SINGLE BAND OF MODERATE SNOWFALL OVER EASTERN
BERRIEN MI, AND ST. JOSEPH, IN COUNTIES AS OF 3 AM EST. THIS
BAND LOOKS TO SLOWLY PIVOT FURTHER WESTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING
PERIOD AND A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL EXTEND EVEN FURTHER SOUTH
BEYOND THE AREAS OF MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL. 1 TO 3 INCHES
OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE MAIN BAND OF
MODERATE INTENSITY SNOWFALL. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO CREATE PATCHES
OF BLOWING OR DRIFTING OF FALLEN SNOW WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. LES WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH PUSHES SOUTH AND EASTWARD. THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BERRIEN AND CASS COUNTIES IN MI AND LA
PORTE, ST. JOSEPH, MARSHALL, AND STARKE COUNTIES IN IN WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 1 PM EST TODAY. SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOWFALL MAY CONTINUE FOR A SHORT TIME AFTER THE CONCLUSION OF
THE ADVISORY BUT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT. WITH
THE COLD NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE AND RECENT SNOWFALL HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. LOW
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE COLD AND DROP INTO THE MID TO
UPPER TEENS HOWEVER TO COMPLICATE MATTERS SOME CONTINUED LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA MAY KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FURTHER EAST WHERE LESS CLOUDS
WILL BE IN PLACE.
TUESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING PUSHING IN OVER THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GET
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS SEEING LOW 40S
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT MUTED WITH THE
SNOWFALL NOW IN PLACE. ANOTHER TROUGH SKIRTS JUST TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY WITH INITIALLY SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF US-20 AND THEN WITH SOME
LIGHT RAIN BEGINNING TO MIX IN AND PUSHING FURTHER
SOUTH AND EASTWARD TUESDAY EVENING. LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL
DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY LIGHT
RAIN MIXING IN TO RETURN TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS FOR
WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S TO UPPER 30S WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA GETTING INTO THE
LOW 40S. THERE STILL IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME PERIOD WITH GUIDANCE WAVERING
THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS WITH THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE
COMPLICATED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND HOW/IF A DISTURBANCE FROM
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SLIPS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS
BY THURSDAY. IT STILL APPEARS A TROUGH DOES PUSH INTO THE REGION
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH THE RAIN/SNOW LINE NEAR
THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA HOWEVER ANY DEVIATION OR CHANGES
AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE MID-WEEK COULD CREATE FAIRLY LARGE
CHANGES TO THE AMOUNT/TYPE OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
AS PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS HAVE ADDRESSED A ZONAL PATTERN ALOFT
WILL DEVELOP OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL CONUS AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 40S TO LOW 50S STILL EXPECTED. BY SUNDAY, ANOTHER TROUGH
APPROACHES THE REGION AND WILL SEE A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
30S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1258 AM EST MON FEB 23 2026
PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES, WITH
KSBN DROPPING TO IFR VISIBILITIES AT TIMES WITHIN A HEAVIER LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BAND. KFWA IS MOST LIKELY TO JUMP TO VFR AT TIMES
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING EVOLUTION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS ONGOING AT THE MOMENT. AS OF THIS WRITING, THERE APPEAR
TO BE TWO DOMINANT BANDS EMERGING. ONE IS EXTENDING DOWN THE
LONG AXIS OF LAKE MI (NEARLY HUGGING THE WESTERN MI SHORELINE)
AND EXTENDING BETWEEN KSBN/KEKM DOWN TO KASW. THE OTHER (LESS
ORGANIZED) BAND ALONG THE WI/IL SHORELINE INTO KMGC/K65/KASW AND
INTO KFWA. WINDS ARE N-NW, WITH A MORE NORTHERLY FETCH ALONG
THE WEST MI SHORELINE AND MORE NORTHWESTERLY FETCH TOWARDS
CHICAGO/MILWAUKEE. A TROUGH IS SHIFTING DOWN ACROSS CENTRAL-
LOWER MI AND WILL CROSS THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE
STILL SHOWING DIFFERENT POSSIBILITIES WITH REGARDS TO HOW THE
MORE DOMINANT BAND EVOLVES-WITH SOME CONGEALING THE BANDS AND
RAPIDLY SHIFTING SOUTHWEST AS THEY RAPIDLY DIMINISH-AND THEN
OTHERS KEEPING A LINGERING BAND FOR A LONGER TIME NEAR KSBN THAT
GRADUALLY MOVES SOUTHWEST AND MERGES WITH THE OTHER.
FOR NOW ASSUMED A MIXED SOLUTION, KEEPING IFR POTENTIAL UNTIL
10Z AT KSBN AND INTERMITTENT MVFR VISIBILITIES/VIS AT KFWA
UNTIL 9Z BEFORE THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH. HAVE SNOW SHOWERS
OVERALL AT BOTH TERMINALS UNTIL 18Z TOMORROW (BOTH LES/TROUGH
INDUCED). KSBN STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DROP TO LIFR AT TIMES
IF THE MORE INTENSE BAND STRENGTHENS AND PARKS OVER KSBN-BUT
WASN'T CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAF GIVEN MOST OBS
BETWEEN 1-4SM IN THE BAND AS OF THIS WRITING.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS
AFTERNOON FOR INZ012-014-103-104-203-204.
OH...NONE.
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ078-177-277.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ANDERSEN
AVIATION...MCD
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