626
FXUS63 KIWX 231709
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1209 PM EST MON FEB 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT MAY PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION ACROSS FAR SW LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA. SOME PATCHY BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IS ALSO
POSSIBLE.
- RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT DETAILS SUCH AS PRECIP AMOUNTS AND TYPES
REMAIN LOW. TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER LATER IN THE WORK WEEK
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1203 PM EST MON FEB 23 2026
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING, BUT SHOULD
EXHIBIT A DOWNWARD TREND AFTER 18Z. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT MORE OF A CELLULAR TREND OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS, LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE HELPING TO DRY OUT UPPER REACHES OF THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE. THESE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE HAD QUITE A BIT OF INLAND
PENETRATION INTO FULTON/CASS IN COUNTIES AIDED BY LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS FORCING IN SIMILAR FASHION TO YESTERDAY. WITH
CONTINUED DRYING OF UPPER PORTIONS OF DGZ, INCREASING SYNOPTIC
SCALE SUBSIDENCE, AND RAP NEAR TERM PROGS OF THIS FGEN FORCING
DIMINISHING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON, THE TREND IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE DOWNWARD THROUGH 20Z. GIVEN SOME
BRIEF POCKETS OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE MORE INTENSE
CELLS OVER NEXT FEW HOURS AND NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 TO
30 MPH AT TIMES, DID EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH
21Z TO ACCOUNT FOR LIGHT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ALONG WITH PATCHY BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 304 AM EST MON FEB 23 2026
LES CONTINUES THIS MORNING HOWEVER A MORE MULTI-BAND MODE HAS
SINCE BECAME A SINGLE BAND OF MODERATE SNOWFALL OVER EASTERN
BERRIEN MI, AND ST. JOSEPH, IN COUNTIES AS OF 3 AM EST. THIS
BAND LOOKS TO SLOWLY PIVOT FURTHER WESTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING
PERIOD AND A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL EXTEND EVEN FURTHER SOUTH
BEYOND THE AREAS OF MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL. 1 TO 3 INCHES
OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE MAIN BAND OF
MODERATE INTENSITY SNOWFALL. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO CREATE PATCHES
OF BLOWING OR DRIFTING OF FALLEN SNOW WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. LES WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH PUSHES SOUTH AND EASTWARD. THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BERRIEN AND CASS COUNTIES IN MI AND LA
PORTE, ST. JOSEPH, MARSHALL, AND STARKE COUNTIES IN IN WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 1 PM EST TODAY. SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOWFALL MAY CONTINUE FOR A SHORT TIME AFTER THE CONCLUSION OF
THE ADVISORY BUT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT. WITH
THE COLD NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE AND RECENT SNOWFALL HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. LOW
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE COLD AND DROP INTO THE MID TO
UPPER TEENS HOWEVER TO COMPLICATE MATTERS SOME CONTINUED LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA MAY KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FURTHER EAST WHERE LESS CLOUDS
WILL BE IN PLACE.
TUESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING PUSHING IN OVER THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GET
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS SEEING LOW 40S
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT MUTED WITH THE
SNOWFALL NOW IN PLACE. ANOTHER TROUGH SKIRTS JUST TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY WITH INITIALLY SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF US-20 AND THEN WITH SOME
LIGHT RAIN BEGINNING TO MIX IN AND PUSHING FURTHER
SOUTH AND EASTWARD TUESDAY EVENING. LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL
DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY LIGHT
RAIN MIXING IN TO RETURN TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS FOR
WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S TO UPPER 30S WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA GETTING INTO THE
LOW 40S. THERE STILL IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME PERIOD WITH GUIDANCE WAVERING
THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS WITH THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE
COMPLICATED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND HOW/IF A DISTURBANCE FROM
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SLIPS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS
BY THURSDAY. IT STILL APPEARS A TROUGH DOES PUSH INTO THE REGION
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH THE RAIN/SNOW LINE NEAR
THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA HOWEVER ANY DEVIATION OR CHANGES
AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE MID-WEEK COULD CREATE FAIRLY LARGE
CHANGES TO THE AMOUNT/TYPE OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
AS PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS HAVE ADDRESSED A ZONAL PATTERN ALOFT
WILL DEVELOP OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL CONUS AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 40S TO LOW 50S STILL EXPECTED. BY SUNDAY, ANOTHER TROUGH
APPROACHES THE REGION AND WILL SEE A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
30S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 636 AM EST MON FEB 23 2026
FOR KSBN, PREDOMINANTLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO START THE PERIOD,
WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIFR (OR LESS) WITH THE LAKE EFFECT BAND
ABOUT TO MOVE INTO THE TERMINAL. THE BAND HAS PRIMARILY LINGERED
BETWEEN KSBN/KEKM OVERNIGHT-SO UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LOW THE
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES ARE WITHIN IT-HOWEVER WHEN IT CROSSED KBEH
THIS MORNING IT DROPPED TO 1/4SM WITH 700FT CEILINGS. HAVE A
TEMPO TO ACCOUNT FOR DROP TO AROUND 1/2SM FOR NOW, LIKELY MOVING
OUT BY 15Z. AFTER THIS, EXPECT FLUCTUATIONS BETWEEN HIGH END-
MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS OF 2500-5000FT. N-NW WINDS
GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
AT KFWA, THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD THIS MORNING OF SNOW/MVFR
VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING TROUGH (HAVE TEMPO FOR
THIS). OTHERWISE, EXPECT CEILINGS TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN MVFR/VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. NW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING WEST
AND DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS
AFTERNOON FOR INZ012-014-103-104-203-204.
OH...NONE.
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ078-177-277.
MARINE...NONE.
UPDATE...MARSILI
DISCUSSION...ANDERSEN
AVIATION...MCD
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