607
FXUS63 KIWX 232057
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
357 PM EST MON FEB 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH INTO EARLY EVENING.
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AN INCH OR
LESS.
- WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY WITH SOME DRIFTING SNOW
POSSIBLE ACROSS OPEN AND RURAL AREAS.
- A FAST MOVING SYSTEM MAY BRING A DUSTING OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
TUESDAY NIGHT.
- SNOW CHANCES RETURN FOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF US ROUTE 24. CONFIDENCE IN THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION IS LOW AT THIS TIME HOWEVER.
- MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR LATE WORK WEEK, BUT TURNING COLDER
FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SOME ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF SNOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 338 PM EST MON FEB 23 2026
STRONG MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE HAS OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. UPPER PORTIONS OF THE DGZ CONTINUE TO DRY OUT THIS AFTERNOON
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS STRONG SUBSIDENCE, AND THIS DRYING IN
SNOW PRODUCTION LAYER SHOULD CONTINUE TO LEAD TO DOWNWARD TREND IN
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER INTENSITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT
21Z THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND PATCHY
DRIFTING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
A HIGHLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CHARACTERIZE THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK. A LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP QUICKLY FOR
TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY AS
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS COULD LINGER AND EVENTUALLY WILL BE REPLACED
WITH HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. COLDEST MINS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WHERE SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING, WHILE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA MAY STAY UP IN UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20.
TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE BACK CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR TUESDAY VIA
STRONG WARM ADVECTION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT A GOOD CHANCE
OF MIXING DOWN SOME 30 KNOT 925 MB FLOW BY THE AFTERNOON. WITH
RECENT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION, SOME CONCERN OF SOME PATCHY
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE. THE
WARMER TEMPS TUESDAY COULD ALLEVIATE THIS ISSUE SOMEWHAT, AND
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL TO DRIFTING SNOW CONCERNS FOR RURAL, OPEN
AREAS.
ANOTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL REACH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY
TUESDAY EVENING. STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL PRECEDE THIS SHORT
WAVE FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, BUT MUCH OF THIS INITIAL
LIFT MAY BE SPENT ON SATURATION PROCESSES. IT DOES APPEAR A NARROW
WINDOW OF MEASURABLE PRECIP POTENTIAL IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES
AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH LOW LEVEL FRONT FOR SOME BRIEF,
DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILES. UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR PORTION OF FAR NE IN/NW OHIO WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT
PRECIP CUT-OFF MAY BE QUITE SHARP GIVEN SYNOPTIC SETUP. GIVEN
SHORT DURATION OF DEEP MOISTURE, ANY PRECIP COULD END AS A
PERIOD OF SOME DRIZZLE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH WILL BE A SECOND SHORT WAVE EMANATING FROM
EASTERN PACIFIC CUT-OFF UPPER LOW. GUIDANCE HAS HAD A DIFFICULT TIME
WITH RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH THE NORTHWARD EXTENT AND
AMPLITUDE OF THIS SHORT WAVE. THE OVERALL TREND PAST FEW MODEL
CYCLES HAS BEEN FOR MORE SUPPRESSED SFC REFLECTION. THE PREVIOUS
SHORT WAVE PASSAGE EARLY WEDNESDAY SHOULD LAY OUT A STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE REGION, AND GIVEN PRE-EXISTING STRONG
BAROCLINICITY, IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER
THIS BOUNDARY TO AT LEAST GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS AT
LEAST SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH CHANCE-LOW
LIKELY POPS STILL SEEM IN ORDER FOR SOUTHERN AREAS WITH THIS
SYSTEM, WITH A POTENTIAL OF A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IF A SLIGHTLY
MORE NORTHERN TRACK VERIFIES.
NOT MUCH CHANGE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS CYCLE, WITH
CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WARMING TREND THU/FRI, FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTRUSION FOR THE WEEKEND WITH RETURN OF NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. GIVEN LONGWAVE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGING LIKELY
BEING MAINTAINED INTO THE WEEKEND, AND A FAVORABLE ORIENTATION TO
STRONGER DOWNSTREAM BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS,
ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF SNOW WILL BE MAINTAINED TOWARD END OF THE
PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 PM EST MON FEB 23 2026
GIVEN SHALLOWER COLUMNAR CONVERGENCE, THE STRONGER SINGLE BAND
FROM THIS MORE LOOKS TO TREND MORE TOWARDS A MULTIBANDED SETUP
ALLOWING FOR, AT SBN, MORE PREDOMINANT MVFR VISBY WITH TIMES OF
IFR EARLY IN THE PERIOD. BUT THAT'LL DEPEND WHERE THE HEAVIER
SNOW SETS UP. AT THIS POINT, HAVE OPTED FOR VFR WITH TIMES OF
LOW MVFR THERE. CIGS APPEAR TO BE MORE MVFR, BUT TRENDS BACK TO
VFR APPEAR MORE LIKELY AND IT MAY BE THAT THE MVFR IS MORE OFF
AND ON AS WELL. FWA LOOKS TO HAVE A FEW MORE HOURS OF MVFR CIGS
AND PERHAPS WITH SOME FLURRIES BEFORE RETURNING TO VFR.
TUESDAY MORNING LOOKS DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH
AND WAA ENSUING. WINDS TURN FROM NW'ERLY TO SW'ERLY.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MARSILI
AVIATION...ROLLER
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