035
FXUS63 KIWX 242355
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
655 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY CONDITIONS CAUSING DRIFTING SNOW ACROSS OPEN AND RURAL
AREAS RELAXES THIS EVENING.
- A FAST MOVING SYSTEM MAY BRING A DUSTING OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TURN COLDER FOR
LATER IN THE WEEKEND WITH SOME ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF SNOW
POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 126 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF AND LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS, WARM ADVECTION ENSUED TODAY AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING. GUSTY 25 TO 40 MPH WINDS TODAY
RELAX THIS EVENING. IN THESE WAA SETUPS, THERE'S WEAKER LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS KEEPING GUSTS LOWER DESPITE A
40 TO 50 KT JET MOVING THROUGH. WATCH OUT FOR SNOW DRIFTS ON THE WAY
HOME, ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS. NOW, AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THIS EVENING, SOME SYSTEM SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR, BUT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY LESS THAN 1 INCH.
YESTERDAY'S HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 BECAME SECURELY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S TODAY. HIGHS COOL SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY NORTH OF US-30, BUT ACTUALLY WARM UP ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH OF US-30. HIGH PRESSURE POKES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
AND HEIGHTS RISE WEDNESDAY CAUSING A DRY DAY.
THE ACTIVITY WE'VE BEEN TRACKING FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
HAS BEEN TRENDING SOUTH OVER TIME. HAVE MAINTAINED A FEW TENTHS
OF SNOW IN OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES, BUT CAN SEE THAT BEING
REMOVED GOING FORWARD.
WARM ADVECTION MOVING THROUGH AS A RESULT OF A LOW IN SOUTH-CENTRAL
CANADA ALLOWS FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S. FRIDAY LOOKS DRY WITH THE INFLUENCE FROM MID LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
AS THE CLIPPER THAT GAVE US WAA ON FRIDAY MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES, CAA ADVECTION ENSUES BEHIND A COLD FRONT IT PUSHES
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS COOLS THE SINGLE DIGIT TEMPS AT 850
MB FRIDAY EVENING TO NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGIT TEMPS SATURDAY
EVENING AND ALLOWS FOR HIGHS SLIGHTLY COOLER, PRIMARILY IN THE
40S, BUT A FEW 50S ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF US-30. WHILE IT'S DRY
FOR THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY, THERE'S SOME SIGN THAT A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MAY TRY TO RIDE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY THAT
REMAINS AROUND THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS ON TRACK THIS FAR OUT BECAUSE THE LOCATION OF THE
BOUNDARY IS STILL IN QUESTION. EITHER WAY, THE BOUNDARY APPEARS
TO HAVE SOME MOISTURE CONNECTION TO THE GULF, WHICH COULD HELP
WITH SYSTEM STRENGTH. SOMETHING TO WATCH GOING FORWARD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIES THINGS OUT AGAIN FOR SUNDAY AND
CERTAINLY MAKES IT COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND MORNING LOWS IN
THE 20S. THEN THAT BAROCLINIC ZONE LIGHTS UP WITH AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER
WITH, PROBABLY, THE FIRST SYSTEM HAVING SNOW, BUT THE TREND WILL BE
TOWARDS INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AS AN UPPER LOW SCOOTS INTO
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND SHOVES THE AREA OF WARMTH AND MOISTURE IN THE
SOUTH NORTHEASTWARD, TOWARD OUR AREA. GIVEN WHAT HAS HAPPENED WITH
TOMORROW NIGHT'S SYSTEM, IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT MODEL
EVOLUTION CAN CHANGE AND MODEL ERRORS CAN BE CORRECTED OVER
TIME.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 654 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL TRANSITION MORE TO FRONTAL FORCING
AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
INITIAL WARM ADVECTION FORCING HAS HELPED WITH SOME TOP-DOWN
SATURATION TO A MID LEVEL DECK THIS EVENING, BUT CHANCES OF
PRECIP GIVEN DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER ARE LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
MID-LATE EVENING AT KSBN AND LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT AT
KFWA. BEST CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIP SHOULD BE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN AXIS OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FORCING THAT
QUICKLY TRANSLATES ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA. WHILE PRECIP AMOUNTS
WILL BE QUITE LIGHT (TRACE TO FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH), SOME
PRECIP TYPE ISSUES COULD ARISE BRIEFLY AT KFWA OF RAIN VS SNOW,
AND ALSO A POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT SNOW/SNOW GRAINS AT BOTH
KSBN/KFWA. CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS REMAINS ON THE LOW SIDE, BUT
LOW PROBABILITIES OF MVFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT PARTICULARLY IN
THE 06Z-10Z TIMEFRAME. SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
MID-LATE MORNING PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY ALSO DUE TO INITIAL
SHALLOW MIXED LAYER AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. IN TERMS
OF WINDS, STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY PRE-FRONTAL FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW
SOME MARGINAL LLWS CRITERIA TO LIKELY BE MET THIS EVENING INTO
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ROLLER
AVIATION...MARSILI
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