966
FXUS63 KIWX 250558
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1258 AM EST WED FEB 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW, POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN AT TIMES TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF US 24 EAST OF I 69. PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY DWINDLES
THROUGH MORNING.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TURN COLDER FOR
LATER IN THE WEEKEND WITH SOME ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF SNOW
POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 126 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF AND LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS, WARM ADVECTION ENSUED TODAY AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING. GUSTY 25 TO 40 MPH WINDS TODAY
RELAX THIS EVENING. IN THESE WAA SETUPS, THERE'S WEAKER LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS KEEPING GUSTS LOWER DESPITE A
40 TO 50 KT JET MOVING THROUGH. WATCH OUT FOR SNOW DRIFTS ON THE WAY
HOME, ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS. NOW, AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THIS EVENING, SOME SYSTEM SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR, BUT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY LESS THAN 1 INCH.
YESTERDAY'S HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 BECAME SECURELY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S TODAY. HIGHS COOL SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY NORTH OF US-30, BUT ACTUALLY WARM UP ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH OF US-30. HIGH PRESSURE POKES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
AND HEIGHTS RISE WEDNESDAY CAUSING A DRY DAY.
THE ACTIVITY WE'VE BEEN TRACKING FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
HAS BEEN TRENDING SOUTH OVER TIME. HAVE MAINTAINED A FEW TENTHS
OF SNOW IN OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES, BUT CAN SEE THAT BEING
REMOVED GOING FORWARD.
WARM ADVECTION MOVING THROUGH AS A RESULT OF A LOW IN SOUTH-CENTRAL
CANADA ALLOWS FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S. FRIDAY LOOKS DRY WITH THE INFLUENCE FROM MID LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
AS THE CLIPPER THAT GAVE US WAA ON FRIDAY MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES, CAA ADVECTION ENSUES BEHIND A COLD FRONT IT PUSHES
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS COOLS THE SINGLE DIGIT TEMPS AT 850
MB FRIDAY EVENING TO NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGIT TEMPS SATURDAY
EVENING AND ALLOWS FOR HIGHS SLIGHTLY COOLER, PRIMARILY IN THE
40S, BUT A FEW 50S ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF US-30. WHILE IT'S DRY
FOR THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY, THERE'S SOME SIGN THAT A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MAY TRY TO RIDE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY THAT
REMAINS AROUND THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS ON TRACK THIS FAR OUT BECAUSE THE LOCATION OF THE
BOUNDARY IS STILL IN QUESTION. EITHER WAY, THE BOUNDARY APPEARS
TO HAVE SOME MOISTURE CONNECTION TO THE GULF, WHICH COULD HELP
WITH SYSTEM STRENGTH. SOMETHING TO WATCH GOING FORWARD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIES THINGS OUT AGAIN FOR SUNDAY AND
CERTAINLY MAKES IT COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND MORNING LOWS IN
THE 20S. THEN THAT BAROCLINIC ZONE LIGHTS UP WITH AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER
WITH, PROBABLY, THE FIRST SYSTEM HAVING SNOW, BUT THE TREND WILL BE
TOWARDS INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AS AN UPPER LOW SCOOTS INTO
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND SHOVES THE AREA OF WARMTH AND MOISTURE IN THE
SOUTH NORTHEASTWARD, TOWARD OUR AREA. GIVEN WHAT HAS HAPPENED WITH
TOMORROW NIGHT'S SYSTEM, IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT MODEL
EVOLUTION CAN CHANGE AND MODEL ERRORS CAN BE CORRECTED OVER
TIME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1244 AM EST WED FEB 25 2026
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES, WITH A
SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR/SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AT
KFWA AS A COLD FRONT EXITS THE AREA. NON-IMPACTFUL FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE AT BOTH SITES THROUGH MORNING. WINDS SHIFT W-NW
THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ROLLER
AVIATION...MCD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page