778
FXUS63 KIWX 251141
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
641 AM EST WED FEB 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S THROUGH THURSDAY, CLIMBING INTO THE
50S ON FRIDAY.
- LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IS
VERY LOW THIS FAR OUT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 311 AM EST WED FEB 25 2026
LIGHT SNOW HAS EXITED THE AREA AND MAINLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THE REST OF THIS WEEK. SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED FGEN SET TO SWING
THROUGH THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT ARE NOW EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF OUR
CWA. A FEW FLAKES MAY CLIP OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES BUT EXPECT THE
VAST MAJORITY OF OUR AREA TO REMAIN DRY. TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TOMORROW WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S (LOW 40S SOUTH) AND LOWS AROUND 20F. COOL
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LIKELY GENERATE SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS IN OUR
NE HALF TODAY BUT STILL EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN, PARTICULARLY IN
OUR SW ZONES. AFTER SOME PASSING MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM SYSTEM TO OUR
SOUTH TONIGHT, THU SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY AS WELL. MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BRIEFLY FLATTENS ON FRI ALLOWING UPSTREAM THERMAL RIDGE TO
CRASH OVER OUR AREA. 850MB TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE 5C IN STRONG SW FLOW BY
LATE FRI. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PUSH AFTERNOON TEMPS WELL INTO THE
50S (ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE TOLL ROAD). COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA FRI NIGHT BUT MOST MODELS KEEP THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY.
NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP ARRIVES LATE SAT AS A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES ACT ON A VERY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS FIRST WAVE IS
VERY WEAK AND THE FGEN RESPONSE APPEARS PALTRY AT THIS POINT. STILL,
MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME BRIEF, LIGHT PRECIP LATE SAT AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. A DUSTING UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. MUCH
BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE SUBSTANTIVE PRECIP ARRIVES SUN NIGHT. MODEL
GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING A LOT OF VARIABILITY HERE GIVEN THE SUBTLE
FORCING MECHANISMS AT WORK BUT THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR SOMEONE
IN THE OHIO VALLEY TO SEE PRECIP, WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW A
POSSIBILITY ON THE NORTHERN EDGES. STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR
ADJUSTMENTS THIS FAR OUT, THOUGH. OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS WARMER AND
WETTER AS WE HEAD INTO DAYS 6-10, THOUGH DETAILS ARE HIGHLY
NEBULOUS AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 636 AM EST WED FEB 25 2026
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD, WITH WSW WINDS SHIFTING W-NW THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTS
AROUND 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON, THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 2500FT ARE POSSIBLE BRIEFLY AT KSBN BETWEEN
15-18Z, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANYTHING
BEYOND A TEMPO GROUP. IT'S POSSIBLE THE 2500 FT CEILINGS BEHIND
THE SECOND COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TODAY (UPSTREAM IN MN/WI AS
OF THIS WRITING) STAY NORTH OF THE TERMINAL OR LIFT TO VFR AS
THE PROGRESS E-SE.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AGD
AVIATION...MCD
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