358
FXUS63 KIWX 260600
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
100 AM EST THU FEB 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S
TODAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND MAYBE EVEN LOW 60S ON
FRIDAY.
- COLD AIR ARRIVES SATURDAY AND LINGERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH CHANCES (20-50 PERCENT) FOR SNOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
- A WARMING TREND BEGINS TUESDAY AND PERSISTS THROUGH THURSDAY,
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING FROM THE 40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY INTO
THE 50S BY THURSDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S AND 30S. THERE
ARE RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES DURING THIS PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1225 PM EST WED FEB 25 2026
THIS PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY NORTHERN STREAM FLOW IN THE SHORT
TO MEDIUM TERM. THEN, LOOK FOR A PATTERN CHANGE TO COME AROUND 3/4
TO 3/7, WHEN IT BECOMES MORE DRIVEN BY THE SUBTROPICAL JET.
CLOSER TO HOME, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVERHEAD AND MID LEVEL
HEIGHT RISES ALLOW FOR A DRY DAY. TODAY'S COOL DAY BEHIND LAST
NIGHT'S COLD FRONT (850 MB TEMPS AROUND -10C IN OUR MI COUNTIES
AROUND 00Z) WARMS SOME FOR THURSDAY, AS A WARM FRONT PASSES BY TO
OUR NORTH, WITH MORE LIKE -5C IN OUR NORTH. THE SYSTEM THAT WAS
ORIGINALLY FORECAST TO AFFECT OUR AREA WITH SNOW TONIGHT CONTINUES
TO TREND SOUTHWARD AND MAY NOT AFFECT OUR AREA AT ALL. ANOTHER
PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE AND MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES OCCURS THURSDAY
PROVIDING ANOTHER DRY DAY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WAS DRAPED OVER THE AREA BY A
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT STRADDLES THE US/CANADIAN BORDER
SO THAT WHILE DRY WEATHER EXISTS AGAIN FOR FRIDAY, A COLD FRONT
FRIDAY NIGHT SPELLS COOL TEMPERATURES AND A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE EDGES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A BAROCLINIC
ZONE SETS UP JUST TO ITS SOUTH. MODERATE FORCING ALONG THE THERMAL
GRADIENT CAUSES SOME PRECIPITATION LATER SATURDAY MAINLY IN THE FORM
OF SNOW. AT THIS POINT, SNOWFALL OUTPUT APPEARS LIGHT, BUT WE'LL
WANT TO SEE HOW THE HI-RES GUIDANCE HANDLES IT TO SEE IF THERE'S
BETTER MESOSCALE FORCING WITHIN. THERE'S ALSO SOME LOCATION
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS (WHICH IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH
OF THE ECMWF). THE NBM/MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE
MEANS ALIGN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF AND ITS LOCATION AT THIS POINT.
COLD AIR COMES DOWN IN TIME FOR SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY,
BUT TIMING THE PHASING OF UPPER JETS AND DEEPENING OF THE SYSTEM
IS KEY. 12Z MODEL RUN AGREEMENT HAS THE SYSTEM AND ITS SNOW
OUTPUT ALONG AND SOUTH OF OUT SOUTHERN AREA DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. THIS ALLOWS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW, BUT BELOW ADVISORY
LEVEL. SHOULD THE INGREDIENTS BECOME BETTER LINED UP, PERHAPS WE
CAN SEE SOME HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS, BUT THAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN.
WITH THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW TO OUR EAST AND AN UPPER LOW
CREEPING INTO SOUTHWESTERN US LATER MONDAY/ MONDAY NIGHT, WARMING
TEMPERATURES TAKE OVER AHEAD OF OUR NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM FOR MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE'S DISAGREEMENT IN STORM TRACK ON THIS ONE
AND IT COULD MISS ENTIRELY TO THE SOUTH YET. THERE COULD ALSO BE
SOME ONSET FREEZING PRECIP IF ACCUMULATING SNOW COMES OUT OF THE
SUNDAY NIGHT STORM.
THAT TROUGH IN THE WEST/RIDGE IN THE EAST PATTERN TAKES OVER FOR THE
END OF NEXT WEEK THAT WOULD LEAD TO WARMING AND POTENTIALLY SOME
UNSETTLED WEATHER.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EST THU FEB 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THIS PERIOD, WITH
LIGHT AND/OR VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY NORTHERLY TO START TONIGHT THEN SHIFT TOWARDS THE
E-SE THROUGH THE MORNING. BY THE AFTERNOON, EXPECT S-SW FLOW
AROUND 6-8KTS. OUTSIDE OF SOME BKN/OVC CLOUDS AT 10KFT/25KFT
TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ROLLER
AVIATION...MCD
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