778
FXUS63 KIWX 260715
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
215 AM EST THU FEB 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGHS TODAY WILL BE AROUND 40 BUT HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE WELL
INTO THE 50S WITH NEAR 60 POSSIBLE SOUTH OF US-30.
- THE NEXT CHANCE (20-50%) OF SNOW ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY WITH
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE NORTH OF US-30.
- MORE SNOW IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION AND AMOUNTS IS VERY LOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 215 AM EST THU FEB 26 2026
LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE/FGEN BAND PASSING JUST
SOUTH OF OUR CWA AS EXPECTED. VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 10KFT WILL
KEEP OUR AREA PRECIP-FREE WITH JUST SOME PASSING MID/HIGH CLOUDS.
THESE CLOUDS WILL EXIT LATER THIS MORNING AND ANTICIPATE MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S SOUTH TO UPPER 30S NORTH
WHERE SOME SNOWPACK REMAINS. BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG SW FLOW/WAA
STILL EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW BRIEFLY FLATTENS
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
DEEP MIXING WILL YIELD HIGHS NEAR 60F, ESPECIALLY IN OUR S/SW ZONES,
AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 MPH. OVERALL A NICE DAY BY FEB STANDARDS.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSES FRI NIGHT BUT BEST MID/UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR ASCENT PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTH AND STILL EXPECTING A
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY, SETTING UP A VERY
TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS OUR AREA. 850MB TEMPS ARE BELOW -20C
OVER NORTHERN MI AND NEAR 10C ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. THIS SETS THE
STAGE FOR OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP LATE SAT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDING ALONG THIS TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT WILL INDUCE SOME MODEST
LOW/MIDLEVEL FGEN IN OUR AREA. ONE OR TWO BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW ARE
EXPECTED IN THIS SCENARIO BUT THE QUESTION IS EXACTLY WHERE. WITH
WEAK FORCING AND RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS, PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO THE PORTIONS OF THE FRONTAL SLOPE THAT ARE BEST
ACTIVATED AND MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH WHERE EXACTLY THAT
WILL BE. BEST CHANCES ARE WITH THE 700MB PORTION OF THE FRONT WHICH
SETS UP ROUGHLY ALONG/JUST NORTH OF THE TOLL ROAD. HOWEVER, SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SECOND BAND LIGHTING UP ALONG 850MB IN OUR
SOUTHERN CWA. FOR NOW, JUST HAVE SOME BROAD-BRUSHED POP'S TO COVER
BOTH BUT THINK THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE IN THE NORTH. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED GIVEN WEAK FORCING AND RELATIVELY DRY/STABLE
AIR BUT LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE WHERE THE BEST FGEN
SETS UP. SOUTHERN ZONES ARE ALSO WARM ENOUGH THAT PRECIP COULD FALL
AS RAIN OR MELT WHEN IT HITS THE GROUND IF IT DOES SNOW. THIS
FURTHER LIMITS POTENTIAL IMPACTS WITH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
FRONT.
VERY SIMILAR SCENARIO SETS UP SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY BUT THIS
WAVE FEATURES BETTER SYNOPTIC-SCALE SUPPORT AND MUCH BETTER MOISTURE
RETURN. TRACK REMAINS THE BIG ISSUE AND 00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUED WITH
THE MORE SOUTHERN TREND. WILL STILL HAVE TO WATCH OUR SOUTHERN ZONES
FOR POSSIBLE ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOW BUT THERE IS STILL A VERY HIGH
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE EXACTLY THIS SUBTLE WAVE TRACKS.
FORECAST THEREAFTER STEADILY TRENDS WARMER NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL
MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIP BUT DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN THIS FAR
OUT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EST THU FEB 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THIS PERIOD, WITH
LIGHT AND/OR VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY NORTHERLY TO START TONIGHT THEN SHIFT TOWARDS THE
E-SE THROUGH THE MORNING. BY THE AFTERNOON, EXPECT S-SW FLOW
AROUND 6-8KTS. OUTSIDE OF SOME BKN/OVC CLOUDS AT 10KFT/25KFT
TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AGD
AVIATION...MCD
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