736
FXUS63 KIWX 262350
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
650 PM EST THU FEB 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WARM DAY IS IN STORE ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE 50S AND
SOME 60S IN AREAS SOUTH OF US-30. IT'LL ALSO BE A RELATIVELY
BREEZY DAY.
- THE NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY WITH A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF ACCUMULATIONS TOTALING 1 INCH NORTH OF THE TOLL ROAD.
- MORE SNOW IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION AND AMOUNTS IS VERY LOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 121 PM EST THU FEB 26 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST TODAY AND A WARM
ADVECTION WING ON ITS BACKSIDE ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM IN
SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA ALLOWS FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
SECURELY INTO THE 50S WITH SOME 60S POSSIBLE SOUTH OF US-30,
ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHWEST. THIS SETUP WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR DRY
WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND FRIDAY. GIVEN THE DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE HIGH AND WARMING TEMPS ON FRIDAY AS WELL
AS A LOW LEVEL JET JUST TO OUR NORTH, MIXING MAY ALLOW FOR 25
TO 30 MPH GUSTS FRIDAY. THOSE GUSTS DO RUN INTO THE WARM
ADVECTION THOUGH SO THEY MAY GET WEAKENED SOME AND SHUT OFF
EARLY AS A RESULT.
THE CLIPPER IN CANADA QUICKLY TRANSLATES EASTWARD TOWARDS SOUTHEAST
CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING, OPENING THE DOOR FOR THE
USUALLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AT THE CLIPPER'S HEELS TO BEGIN
NUDGING INTO THE CONUS, ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH, A BAROCLINIC ZONE IS
CREATED AND WILL HELP TO GUIDE THE NEXT WAVE TOWARD THE REGION.
GIVEN ITS RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING, MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME
AGREEING ON THE TRACK FOR A DISTURBANCE WITH SNOW. MUCH MORE OF
THE GUIDANCE IS ACROSS CENTRAL/ SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN, BUT
THE GFS IS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTHWARD WITH ITS PRECIPITATION
TRACK, EXTENDING INTO INDIANA. THE GFS AND THE NAM ARE IN A CAMP
WITH AROUND 2 INCHES NORTH OF US-6. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS HAVE MOISTURE IN THE DGZ WITH SOME OMEGA IN THE DGZ,
BUT EXTENDING SLIGHTLY BELOW IT. THE BEST LOOKING INGREDIENTS
FOR SNOW APPEAR TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE F-GEN BAND PASSES
THROUGH. TAKING A LOOK AT MODEL STATISTICS, ONLY 15 TO 30
PERCENT OF MODELS HAVE GREATER THAN 1 INCH AND THAT RESIDES
MAINLY NORTH OF US-6 BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND 12Z SUN. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER, BUT ALSO
USHERING IN THE COLDER TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY'S HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND 60S WILL DROP BACK TO THE 30S AND 40S ON SATURDAY, BUT WILL
STAY BETWEEN THE UPPER 20S AND MID 30S ON SUNDAY.
OUR NEXT SYSTEM COMES IN LATER SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER JETS
ARE STILL STRUGGLING TO COMPLETELY PHASE AND SO THIS SYSTEM
COMES WITH TRACK AND INTENSITY DISAGREEMENTS LIKELY BECAUSE OF
THE WEAK FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH IT. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE IS
A MOISTURE CONNECTION TO THE GULF THAT COULD HELP WITH SNOWFALL
PRODUCTION. THE GFS HAS COME A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF EVEN
IF THE GFS IS STILL A LITTLE ON THE FAST SIDE. GFS HAS 1 TO 4
INCHES SOUTH OF US-30 WHEREAS THE ECMWF HAS MORE LIKE 2 TO 6
INCHES SOUTH OF US-30. WE'LL BE KEEPING AN EYE OUT FOR ADVISORY
LEVEL SNOW FOR THIS EVENT.
BEYOND THE SUN/MON SYSTEM, WARM ADVECTION ENSUES MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WITH THE SURFACE HIGH TO OUR EAST AND THE PATTERN
FLIPPING TO MORE OF A TROUGH IN THE WEST AND RIDGE IN THE EAST
PATTERN AS AN UPPER LOW DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS. MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TUESDAY AS THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE WHICH HAS STAYED TO OUR SOUTH MOVES NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT. DEPENDING ON THE STATE OF THE SNOW AND HOW QUICKLY WE ARE
ABLE TO WARM UP, COULD SEE SOME ONSET MIXING OF SNOW/RAIN AND
MAYBE SOME FREEZING TYPES IN THERE TUESDAY BEFORE IT CHANGES TO
RAIN LATER TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SW CONUS ARRIVES LATER NEXT
WEEK WITH MORE RAIN AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 650 PM EST THU FEB 26 2026
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE. A
MOISTURE-LACKING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL EXIT THE REGION
TONIGHT RESULTING IN DIMINISHING MID LEVEL CLOUD BY LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY SHALLOW FOG IS A LOW POSSIBILITY
TONIGHT ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF DEPARTING LOW LEVEL CYCLONE,
WITH EXPECTED DIMINISHING CLOUDS HELPING RADIATIONAL COOLING.
HOWEVER, LACK OF MOISTURE DEPTH AND MAINTENANCE OF SOME LOW
LEVEL GRADIENT MAKES THIS PROBABILITY TOO LOW AT TERMINALS FOR
INCLUSION WITH THE 00Z TAFS. AFTER A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION
TO START THE DAY FRIDAY, LOW LEVEL MIXING SHOULD SUPPORT SOME
SOUTHERLY GUSTS INTO THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE BY AROUND THE
MIDDAY PERIOD. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH
JUST AN EXPECTED INCREASE IN MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS
FRIDAY PM.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ROLLER
AVIATION...MARSILI
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