845
FXUS63 KIWX 270641
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
141 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD AND BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH.
- NOT AS WARM SATURDAY WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE
EVENING.
- ADDITIONAL SNOW IS POSSIBLE (30-60% CHANCE) SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 141 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
A PROGRESSIVE MID-LATITUDE JET STREAM RESULTS IN A BUSY FORECAST
PERIOD WITH HIGHLY VARIABLE TEMPERATURES, AND TIMES OF SNOW AND
RAIN.
HIGH PRESSURE TODAY OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BRINGS WARM,
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY TO OUR AREA WHILE WARM AIR
ADVECTION IS ALSO UNDER WAY AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW RACING
THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE. AFTER A COLD START, LOWS NEAR
FREEZING GIVE WAY TO HIGHS IN THE 50S, EVEN SOME 60S SOUTH OF US
24. SOMEWHAT BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AS SEEN ON WELL-MIXED
FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH WIND GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. THE CANADIAN LOW
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THIS EVENING AND SPREADS A COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS STALLS AGAINST
LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY MAKING
SATURDAY FORECAST HIGHS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN NORTH VS SOUTH.
ALONG THIS STALLING COLD FRONT, AN UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSE RACES THROUGH
PRESENTING A 30-50% CHANCE FOR A NARROW BAND OF SNOW SATURDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. FRONTOGENESIS WITH THIS FEATURE LOOKS STRONG,
THUS, A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL BRING REDUCED VISIBILITY
AND INSTANCES OF SNOW COVERED ROADS, EVEN THROUGH ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE LESS THAN 1 INCH FOR MOST. ONE INCH MAY BE REACHED IN SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN COUNTIES. SNOW TOTALS WILL BE CLOSER TO A TRACE SOUTH OF US-
30.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS THINGS COOL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND, BUT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AS IT MOVES EAST BRINGS A STEADY
WARM-UP INTO THE 40S BY TUESDAY. BEFORE THIS, ANOTHER IMPULSE RIDING
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE, NOW ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY, THREATENS TO
BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF US 30 MONDAY (30-
60% CHANCE) WHICH MAY BRING A SLIPPERY MORNING COMMUTE. THIS ISN'T A
GUARANTEE YET, AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE A STRONG STEERING
INFLUENCE IN WHERE THIS SYSTEM TRACKS. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON
IN THE COMING FORECAST CYCLES.
BY MIDWEEK, AS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS, STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BUCKLES THE JET STREAM POLEWARD
THROUGH THE MIDWEST MARKING THE START OF WHAT COULD BE A MILD(ER)
AND WET PATTERN. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY (50S AND 60S) ARE THE WARMEST AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE, THUS,
AS ADVERTISED THESE TEMPERATURES MIGHT BE A STRETCH. IN CONTRAST,
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1217 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
VFR STRATUS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA WILL EXIT BY EARLY MORNING
AS DRIER AIR IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSING FRIDAY NIGHT.
STRONG LLJ AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LLWS BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD GIVEN
VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BROWN
AVIATION...AGD
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