148
FXUS63 KIWX 280522
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1222 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- 20-45% CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY
SUNDAY, HIGHEST NORTH AND EAST OF FORT WAYNE. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 0.5".
- 20-40% CHANCES FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG AND SOUTH OF
US 30 SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
UP TO 1".
- A MILD AND WET PATTERN SETS UP NEXT WEEK. MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE BY MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 137 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MODERATE WAA HAVE BOOSTED TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 50S AREA-WIDE THIS AFTERNOON! ENJOY THE MILD AIR WHILE IT
BRIEFLY LASTS, AS COLDER AIR AND TWO OPPORTUNITIES FOR LIGHT
SNOW ARE AHEAD THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SWEEP THROUGH
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WINDS HAVE NOT BEEN QUITE AS GUSTY TODAY AS
ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER, SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS SHOULD
PICK UP TO 25-30 MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY OVERNIGHT WITH A
TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TOMORROW (ALTHOUGH STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL)
IN THE 40S WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING DRY THROUGH THE DAYTIME
HOURS.
STRONG FRONTOGENESIS WILL THEN ACCOMPANY THE FIRST OPPORTUNITY
FOR SNOWFALL LATE SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
AIDED BY A 50 MB SHORTWAVE, A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL DIVE
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION SATURDAY EVENING. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA MAINLY AFTER 00Z SUNDAY, WITH 20-45% CHANCES FOR PRECIP
(GREATEST NORTH AND EAST OF FORT WAYNE). DEPENDING ON
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE, AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF US 30 MAY
SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX AS OPPOSED TO JUST SNOW. QPF WILL BE VERY
LIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM (LIKELY 0.10" OR LESS), WHICH IN TURN
LEADS TO LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.5" OR LESS.
REGARDLESS, SNOW MAY CREATE SLICK ROADS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
NORTHWEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM MAY ELICIT A BRIEF LAKE RESPONSE FROM 06-12Z SUNDAY NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN. I'VE ADDED IN 15-20% POPS ALONG BERRIEN AND LA
PORTE COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL. MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS A WEAK SINGLE BAND DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN,
BRINGING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW ANYWHERE FROM MILWAUKEE, WI TO
HOLLAND, MI DEPENDING ON THE MODEL RUN. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE BRIEF AND LIGHT, IF ANY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND OHIO
RIVER VALLEY WILL BRING A SECOND OPPORTUNITY FOR SNOW SUNDAY
EVENING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY ON MONDAY. WITH CAA AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES (FALLING INTO THE 20S SUNDAY NIGHT) DUE TO
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH, THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING
SNOW TO PARTS OF THE AREA. SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS ON THE
STRENGTH OF INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH ON MONDAY; THIS
DEVELOPING HIGH PRESSURE MAY BE ABLE TO PUSH THIS SYSTEM
COMPLETELY SOUTH OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH HAVE KEPT 20-40% POPS IN
FOR NOW. OUR CWA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
SYSTEM, MEANING THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF US 30 WILL
HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOW. SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE MINOR, LIKELY 0.5" TO 1" (HIGHEST IN
NORTH-CENTRAL INDIANA NEAR OUR BORDER WITH NWS INDY).
A MILD AND WET WEATHER PATTERN EMERGES FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH
WITH SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN MID TO LATE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES STEADILY CLIMB IN THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK, ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A SHARP NORTH-SOUTH TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT EACH DAY DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTH THE AFOREMENTIONED
MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SYSTEM GETS ON MONDAY. BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE EAST COAST
AND MID ATLANTIC, SETTING THE STAGE FOR MILDER AIR AND GULF
MOISTURE TO BE ADVECTED INTO OUR AREA. SEVERAL OPPORTUNTIES FOR
RAIN ARE ON THE TABLE FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, POSSIBLY EVEN
BECOMING MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN HEAVY
RAIN COMES LATE IN THE WEEK, WHEN PWATS CLIMB TO OVER 1" AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ADVECTS 50-55 DEGREES DEWPOINTS. EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DUE TO ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. BY MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK, TEMPERATURES RISE TO
BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1222 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH THE AREA AND PRIMARILY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. THERE IS
SOME CHANCE FOR MVFR STRATOCU DURING DAYTIME HEATING BUT SUSPECT
DEGREE OF DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL KEEP ANY LOWER CLOUDS SCATTERED.
SOME WEAK FGEN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
EVENING AND COULD BRING SOME BRIEF RAIN/SNOW AND MVFR CEILINGS
BUT HERE AGAIN DEGREE OF DRY AIR AND OVERALL WEAK FORCING LOWERS
CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS. MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS IS
EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS CAA RAMPS UP.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
046.
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...AGD
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