375
FXUS63 KIWX 281115
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
615 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOWFALL (1 INCH OR LESS) THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING,
PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE INDIANA TOLL ROAD. FARTHER SOUTH,
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT AREAS EAST AND SOUTH OF FORT
WAYNE LATE SAT.
- GLANCING BLOW TO THE SOUTH WITH SNOW CHANCES (20-30%) SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING, MAINLY SOUTH OF US-30.
- A MILD AND WET PATTERN SETS UP NEXT WEEK. PERIODS OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE BY MID TO LATE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 126 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, LEADING TO A STEADY DECLINE IN TEMPS
TO THE UPPER 20S / LOW 30S BY DAYBREAK. A DISTURBANCE DROPPING
OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PRIMARILY ACROSS MICHIGAN. THERE SHOULD
BE A PRETTY SHARP GRADIENT ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION INITIALLY WHERE LOW-LEVEL SATURATION IS NOT AIDED
BY ISENTROPIC ACCENT AND FGEN FORCING (LIKELY AROUND THE MI/IN
BORDER). ACCUMULATION OF ROUGHLY AN INCH OR LESS CAN BE
EXPECTED, WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS. BY LATE EVENING, POP COVERAGE
WILL EXPAND SOUTH AND EAST AS SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MOVE
INTO THE AREA THANKS TO AN UPTICK IN PWATS AND SYNOPTIC FORCING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER OHIO
VALLEY TO START THE WEEK. THIS WILL HELP TO SHUNT A DISTURBANCE
JUST TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, WITH A BULK
OF THE WEATHER REMAINING OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN INDIANA. WHILE
SOME SLICK SPOTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF US-24 CAN'T BE RULED OUT
FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE, THE EXPECTATION IS LITTLE TO NO
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR.
THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS ACTIVE AS SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION OCCURS UNDER A GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURE
REGIME. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL FEATURE MIXED PRECIP
TYPES, FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN AS THE PRECIP TYPE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WITH 2-3+ INCHES OF QPF
POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE WEEK, IT WILL BE A WELCOME SIGHT FOR
THE MANY DROUGHT STRICKEN PLACES IN CENTRAL INDIANA AND
NORTHWEST OHIO. OUR ATTENTION WILL THEN NEED TO SHIFT TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF SPRING FLOODING AS WE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A
WET PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF MARCH.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 615 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
ASSOCIATED FGEN COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW. HOWEVER,
DRY AIR AND WEAK FORCING LOWER CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS. MUCH
BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS WILL ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT AS CAA
RAMPS UP.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
046.
DISCUSSION...NORMAN
AVIATION...AGD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page