251
FXUS63 KIWX 030238 CCA
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
556 PM EST MON MAR 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BECOMING UNSEASONABLY MILD THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.
- AN EXTENDED VERY WET PERIOD WILL START TUESDAY WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
- RISES ON RIVERS ARE EXPECTED. SOME RIVERS MAY EVENTUALLY REACH
ACTION OR FLOOD STAGE LATE THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 150 PM EST MON MAR 2 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT ZONAL INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING, RESULTING IN LITTLE CHANGE IN SFC TEMPERATURES INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S (COLDEST
TONIGHT). A WARM FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO WORK NORTH ACROSS INDIANA AND
OHIO OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS, BUT WILL FACE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
RESISTANCE WITH A LACK OF ANY DEEPER WAVES TO HELP MOVE IT ALONG.
MODELS TRENDS OVERALL HAVE BEEN CONFINING THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE RAINFALL TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IN AND OH STARTING LATE
TONIGHT AND PERSISTING INTO WEDNESDAY. THAT BEING SAID, WE WILL
STILL RESIDE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE OVERRUNNING MOISTURE
WHICH MAY SPELL A PERIOD OF LIGHTER RAINFALL FOR AREAS MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF US-30. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO HOW FAST THE
LIGHTER PRECIP ADVANCES NORTH WHILE TEMPERATURES NORTH OF US-30
ARE NEAR/BELOW FREEZING LATE TONIGHT INTO FIRST THING TUESDAY
MORNING. AS A RESULT, WX GRIDS STILL REFLECT A MENTION OF
FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SNOW FOR A FEW HOURS IN THESE AREA, BUT
IMPACTS IF ANY WOULD BE BRIEF.
THE FIRST SHOT OF MORE MEANINGFUL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED INCREASE
IN RAIN CHANCES ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A TROUGH,
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN NORTHERN CA, WORKS EAST TO NEBRASKA BY 12Z WED.
A MODEST INCREASE IN HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
ASSOCIATED OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION TO WORK FURTHER NORTH.
HIGHEST POPS WILL RESIDE IN THIS PERIOD FOR THE AREA WITH
RAINFALL TAPERING OFF BY THURSDAY EVENING.
THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS A DEEP UPPER LOW STALLS OUT OVER
THE SW U.S. AN EVEN STRONGER SURGE OF WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL
COMMENCE WITH THE WARM FRONT EVENTUALLY WORKING WELL NORTH INTO THE
AREA. A WEAKER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL ARRIVE, ACCOMPANIED BY A
COOL FRONT (MORE EXPECTING A DROP IN DEWPOINTS VS TEMPERATURES AS IT
PASSES). BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS
EXISTS IN THIS PERIOD WITH UNCERTAINTY ON THE BEST TIMING AND
OVERALL AMOUNTS OF PRECIP. AS A RESULT, EXPECTED PRECIP CHANCES IN
THIS PERIOD TO VARY QUITE A BIT IN THE COMING DAYS UNTIL MODELS CAN
HOPEFULLY HONE IN ON A BETTER SOLUTION.
FEW IF ANY HYDRO CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THE LOWER FLOW OF THE
RIVERS, LOW LEVELS IN LAKES AND DRY GROUND WAITING TO SOAK UP THE
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN RAINFALL. AS WE GET LATER IN THE WEEK AND
BEYOND WE WILL NEED TO MORE CLOSELY MONITOR THE SITUATION AS
REPEATED ROUND OF RAINFALL COULD CAUSE ISSUES (MORESO WITH RESPECT
TO RIVERS AND MAYBE SOME LOW AREAS VS MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING).
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 537 PM EST MON MAR 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR KSBN THROUGH 12Z TUE AND THROUGH ABOUT
06Z FOR KFWA, BEFORE LOWERED CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH A EASTBOUND
DISTURBANCE PUSHES INTO THE AREA BRINGING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
AREA. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP AT BOTH KFWA AND KSBN THERE IS A CHANCE
OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN BEFORE CHANGING OVER COMPLETELY TO
RAINFALL. CONFIDENCE IN THE FREEZING RAIN IS LOW AS SURFACE AND NEAR
SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH THE INCOMING
CLOUDS LIMITING COOLING AND WITH WARM ADVECTION TAKING PLACE.
INITIALLY MVFR CIGS AS THE CLOUDS PUSH INTO THE AREA BECOMING IFR
AFTER 09Z TUE FOR KFWA AND AFTER 12Z TUE FOR KSBN. LOWERING VSBYS TO
MVFR CATS EXPECTED IN SHOWERS AT THIS TIME. EASTERLY WINDS LESS THAN
10 KTS BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY LATE IN THIS TAF PERIOD,
AFTER 18Z TUE.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FISHER
AVIATION...ANDERSEN
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