580
FXUS63 KIWX 030528
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1228 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BECOMING UNSEASONABLY MILD THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.
- AN EXTENDED VERY WET PERIOD WILL START TUESDAY WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
- RISES ON RIVERS ARE EXPECTED. SOME RIVERS MAY EVENTUALLY REACH
ACTION OR FLOOD STAGE LATE THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 150 PM EST MON MAR 2 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT ZONAL INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING, RESULTING IN LITTLE CHANGE IN SFC TEMPERATURES INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S (COLDEST
TONIGHT). A WARM FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO WORK NORTH ACROSS INDIANA AND
OHIO OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS, BUT WILL FACE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
RESISTANCE WITH A LACK OF ANY DEEPER WAVES TO HELP MOVE IT ALONG.
MODELS TRENDS OVERALL HAVE BEEN CONFINING THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE RAINFALL TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IN AND OH STARTING LATE
TONIGHT AND PERSISTING INTO WEDNESDAY. THAT BEING SAID, WE WILL
STILL RESIDE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE OVERRUNNING MOISTURE
WHICH MAY SPELL A PERIOD OF LIGHTER RAINFALL FOR AREAS MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF US-30. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO HOW FAST THE
LIGHTER PRECIP ADVANCES NORTH WHILE TEMPERATURES NORTH OF US-30
ARE NEAR/BELOW FREEZING LATE TONIGHT INTO FIRST THING TUESDAY
MORNING. AS A RESULT, WX GRIDS STILL REFLECT A MENTION OF
FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SNOW FOR A FEW HOURS IN THESE AREA, BUT
IMPACTS IF ANY WOULD BE BRIEF.
THE FIRST SHOT OF MORE MEANINGFUL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED INCREASE
IN RAIN CHANCES ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A TROUGH,
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN NORTHERN CA, WORKS EAST TO NEBRASKA BY 12Z WED.
A MODEST INCREASE IN HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
ASSOCIATED OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION TO WORK FURTHER NORTH.
HIGHEST POPS WILL RESIDE IN THIS PERIOD FOR THE AREA WITH
RAINFALL TAPERING OFF BY THURSDAY EVENING.
THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS A DEEP UPPER LOW STALLS OUT OVER
THE SW U.S. AN EVEN STRONGER SURGE OF WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL
COMMENCE WITH THE WARM FRONT EVENTUALLY WORKING WELL NORTH INTO THE
AREA. A WEAKER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL ARRIVE, ACCOMPANIED BY A
COOL FRONT (MORE EXPECTING A DROP IN DEWPOINTS VS TEMPERATURES AS IT
PASSES). BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS
EXISTS IN THIS PERIOD WITH UNCERTAINTY ON THE BEST TIMING AND
OVERALL AMOUNTS OF PRECIP. AS A RESULT, EXPECTED PRECIP CHANCES IN
THIS PERIOD TO VARY QUITE A BIT IN THE COMING DAYS UNTIL MODELS CAN
HOPEFULLY HONE IN ON A BETTER SOLUTION.
FEW IF ANY HYDRO CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THE LOWER FLOW OF THE
RIVERS, LOW LEVELS IN LAKES AND DRY GROUND WAITING TO SOAK UP THE
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN RAINFALL. AS WE GET LATER IN THE WEEK AND
BEYOND WE WILL NEED TO MORE CLOSELY MONITOR THE SITUATION AS
REPEATED ROUND OF RAINFALL COULD CAUSE ISSUES (MORESO WITH RESPECT
TO RIVERS AND MAYBE SOME LOW AREAS VS MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING).
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1228 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2026
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS STEADILY INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. LOW-END MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THIS
PERIOD WITH IFR LIKELY AT KFWA DURING THE DAY. IFR IS POSSIBLE
AT KSBN BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT FAR NORTH. RAIN SHOWERS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE (AGAIN BEST CHANCES AT KFWA) BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AND CEILINGS WILL DRIVE AVIATION
IMPACTS TODAY REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT IT RAINS. FREEZING
RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED AS PRECIP WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER
SUNRISE WHEN TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING. SLOWLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES
SOUTH.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FISHER
AVIATION...AGD
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