784
FXUS63 KIWX 031509
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1009 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.
- NUMEROUS PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING TODAY AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. SEVERE STORMS
NOT EXPECTED.
- THE RAIN RUNOFF WILL CAUSE RISES ON RIVERS WITH SOME RIVERS
EVENTUALLY REACHING ACTION OR FLOOD STAGE LATE THIS WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1005 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2026
POPS WERE TRIMMED SOUTH SOMEWHAT EARLIER TO REFLECT TREND IN
MODELS AND RADAR ON BULK OF RAINFALL REMAINING NEAR/SOUTH OF
US-24 FOR THE TIME BEING. THAT BEING SAID, SOME LIMITED LOW
LEVEL LIFT AND SATURATION IN THE LOWER LEVELS HAS RESULTED IN
POCKETS OF DRIZZLE AND FOR SOME AREAS (INCLUDING FT WAYNE) SOME
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ON ELEVATED SURFACES. TEMPERATURES IN
THE AREA OF DRIZZLE ARE HOVERING RIGHT IN THE 31 TO 33 DEGREE
RANGE SO THIS THREAT MAY CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR 2 BEFORE
TEMPS EDGE INTO THE MID 30S. WILL MONITOR TRENDS, BUT FOR NOW
LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT OF THE GRIDS AND ISSUE A BRIEF SPS. ALSO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AS NO CHANCES FOR THE SUN TO MAKE AN
APPEARANCE THROUGH THE DAY AND POSSIBLY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2026
AT THE ONSET, A CHILLY EAST FLOW WAS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA INTO
NORTHWEST OHIO AND INTO FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. DEW POINTS
WERE MOSTLY IN THE TEENS, ALTHOUGH SOME SURFACE MOISTURE WAS
TRYING TO WORK ITS WAY NORTH OVER NORTHWEST OHIO. HAVE REMOVED
ALMOST ALL OF THE FREEZING RAIN BY DELAYING THE START OF
PRECIPITATION. THE GENERAL TREND OF THE MODELS WAS TO DEVELOP
PRECIPITATION TOO FAST AND TOO FAR NORTH WHILE THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW FREEZING. OBSERVED PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES
ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AS OF 3AM EST WERE ALL ABOVE FREEZING. TO
SUMMARIZE, FEW IF ANY WEATHER RELATED IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ARE
EXPECTED EARLY TODAY.
AN ALMOST UNPRECEDENTED MILD PATTERN WILL SET UP AND PERSIST
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH 25 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AT TIMES. IN ADDITION TO THE MILD PATTERN, WET CONDITIONS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE MILD TEMPERATURES. AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL EXTEND MUCH FARTHER NORTH THAN "NORMAL" FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO
BECOME UNSEASONABLY MILD. THIS MILD PATTERN WILL PERSIST PAST
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD NEXT TUESDAY.
IN ADDITION TO THE MILD TEMPERATURES, AN EXTENDED WET PATTERN
WILL COEXIST WITH THE MILD WEATHER. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL SKYROCKET ABOVE 1.00 INCH AND HOVER AROUND 1.25". PRECIP
WATER VALUES WILL REACH UP TO 1.40" AT TIMES PER GFS. THESE
VALUES WILL APPROACH 1.00 INCH ABOVE NORMAL. ANTECEDENTLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND LOW RIVER LEVELS WILL HELP DELAY ANY AREAL OR
RIVER FLOODING. AT THIS TIME, HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS APPEAR MINIMAL
GIVEN GENERALLY A LIGHTER RAIN INTENSITY OVER A LONGER PERIOD.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
1.75" OVER FAR SOUTH AREAS FROM MARION TO PORTLAND. MUCH LOWER
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FARTHER NORTH WITH LESS THAN 1 INCH NEAR
AND NORTH OF THE MICHIGAN BORDER.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 550 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2026
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH SUPPORTING
WIDESPREAD STRATUS. CEILINGS WILL HOLD IFR AT KFWA FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY BUT WILL BE MORE SHORT-LIVED/TEMPORARY FURTHER NORTH AT
KSBN. SCATTERED, LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES
(AGAIN MAINLY AT KFWA) BUT THE LOW CEILINGS WILL BE THE MAIN
AVIATION IMPACT REGARDLESS OF RAIN. SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AS FRONTAL ZONE SHIFTS SOUTH SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER, LATEST
CONCENSUS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MVFR STRATUS MAY PERSIST WELL INTO
WED.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
UPDATE...FISHER
DISCUSSION...SKIPPER
AVIATION...AGD
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