809
FXUS63 KIWX 031725
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1225 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.
- NUMEROUS PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING TODAY AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. SEVERE STORMS
NOT EXPECTED.
- THE RAIN RUNOFF WILL CAUSE RISES ON RIVERS WITH SOME RIVERS
EVENTUALLY REACHING ACTION OR FLOOD STAGE LATE THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2026
AT THE ONSET, A CHILLY EAST FLOW WAS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA INTO
NORTHWEST OHIO AND INTO FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. DEW POINTS
WERE MOSTLY IN THE TEENS, ALTHOUGH SOME SURFACE MOISTURE WAS
TRYING TO WORK ITS WAY NORTH OVER NORTHWEST OHIO. HAVE REMOVED
ALMOST ALL OF THE FREEZING RAIN BY DELAYING THE START OF
PRECIPITATION. THE GENERAL TREND OF THE MODELS WAS TO DEVELOP
PRECIPITATION TOO FAST AND TOO FAR NORTH WHILE THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW FREEZING. OBSERVED PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES
ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AS OF 3AM EST WERE ALL ABOVE FREEZING. TO
SUMMARIZE, FEW IF ANY WEATHER RELATED IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ARE
EXPECTED EARLY TODAY.
AN ALMOST UNPRECEDENTED MILD PATTERN WILL SET UP AND PERSIST
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH 25 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AT TIMES. IN ADDITION TO THE MILD PATTERN, WET CONDITIONS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE MILD TEMPERATURES. AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL EXTEND MUCH FARTHER NORTH THAN "NORMAL" FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO
BECOME UNSEASONABLY MILD. THIS MILD PATTERN WILL PERSIST PAST
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD NEXT TUESDAY.
IN ADDITION TO THE MILD TEMPERATURES, AN EXTENDED WET PATTERN
WILL COEXIST WITH THE MILD WEATHER. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL SKYROCKET ABOVE 1.00 INCH AND HOVER AROUND 1.25". PRECIP
WATER VALUES WILL REACH UP TO 1.40" AT TIMES PER GFS. THESE
VALUES WILL APPROACH 1.00 INCH ABOVE NORMAL. ANTECEDENTLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND LOW RIVER LEVELS WILL HELP DELAY ANY AREAL OR
RIVER FLOODING. AT THIS TIME, HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS APPEAR MINIMAL
GIVEN GENERALLY A LIGHTER RAIN INTENSITY OVER A LONGER PERIOD.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
1.75" OVER FAR SOUTH AREAS FROM MARION TO PORTLAND. MUCH LOWER
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FARTHER NORTH WITH LESS THAN 1 INCH NEAR
AND NORTH OF THE MICHIGAN BORDER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2026
A BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT WILL BE THE WEATHER-MAKER BETWEEN
TODAY AND THE WEEKEND. SURGES OF WARM/MOIST AIR NORTHWARD INCREASE
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND DRIZZLE, HOWEVER, LOW LEVEL DRYNESS WILL CUT
INTO THOSE CHANCES FROM TIME TO TIME. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN RAP TIME
SECTIONS CONTINUES FROM NOW UNTIL EARLY WED MORNING. AM NOT ENTIRELY
CONVINCED DRIZZLE CONTINUES GIVEN WANING LIFT THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
CANNOT RULE IT OUT. THIS PLAYS A ROLE IN MVFR CIGS THAT APPEAR TO
DROP INTO IFR AND POTENTIALLY LIFR OVERNIGHT. AVIATION GUIDANCE
SEEMS TO MODERATE CIGS WEDNESDAY MORNING POTENTIALLY AS WAA
COMMENCES, BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AROUND IF THOSE LOW CIGS
REMAIN OR MODERATE. RAIN PROBABLY HOLDS OFF UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WED.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SKIPPER
AVIATION...ROLLER
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