654
FXUS63 KIWX 040714
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
214 AM EST WED MAR 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS,
WARMEST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.
- RAIN CHANCES EXIST SOUTH OF US-30 INTO WEDNESDAY (GREATEST
SOUTH OF US-24) WITH BETTER CHANCES AREAWIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.
- SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, WITH SEVERE STORMS LIKELY REMAINING WEST OF THE
AREA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
- HYDRO CONCERNS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY LIMITED AS THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA. SOME RIVERS WILL RISE AND
COULD REACH ACTION STAGE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 139 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2026
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ATTEMPT TO EDGE NORTH SOMEWHAT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, THEN BEGIN
TO SURGE FURTHER NORTH AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE EJECTS TOWARDS THE NE,
REACHING THE AREA LATER WED INTO THU WITH A SFC REFLECTION PASSING
OVERHEAD. UNTIL THIS WAVE APPROACHES A TIGHT NORTHERN GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE IN MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS
FAVORING EITHER SIDE OF AND SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL
IN. AS MENTIONED IN THE MORNING UPDATE, POPS WERE TRIMMED SOUTHWARD
SOMEWHAT AND THIS TREND CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY IN LINE WITH MODEL
GUIDANCE. QUESTIONS DO REMAIN AS TO IF ENOUGH WEAK LOW LEVEL LIFT
AND LOW LEVEL SATURATION COULD RESULT IN POCKETS OF DRIZZLE ONCE
AGAIN UNTIL DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES. ALSO MODELS SEEM RATHER
AGGRESSIVE ON CLEARING CLOUD OUT, ESPECIALLY NORTH DESPITE A LACK OF
STRONG SUBSIDENCE OR DRY AIR BELOW 850 MB. HAVE LEFT ANY DRIZZLE
MENTION OUT, BUT DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER. AS THE WAVE MOVES IN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA WITH ON THE ORDER OF 0.25" (NW) TO POSSIBLY UP TO 0.75"
(SE) OF RAINFALL OCCURRING. THE GROUND SHOULD BE QUITE RECEPTIVE TO
THE LIGHT TO MODERATE NATURE OF THIS, WITH ONLY A LIMITED RESPONSE
IN RIVERS FOR THIS ROUND.
A LULL IN THE RAIN IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE MID WEEK SYSTEM AS
AN ELONGATED TROUGH LINGERS TO OUR WEST WITH A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES EJECTING FROM IT INTO THE PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE FRONT TO FINALLY PUSH NORTH
LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARRIVING AS WELL INCREASING MOISTURE. CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAKE SHAPE TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST, WITH THE SPC
DY4 SEVERE OUTLOOK DEPICTING A 15% SEVERE THREAT JUST TO OUR WEST IN
PORTIONS OF IL AND SOUTHERN WI FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WHILE I SUSPECT IN COMING OUTLOOKS NW PORTIONS OF OUR AREA COULD END
UP IN A MARGINAL RISK, THE TIMING OF LATE FRI EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LEADS TO A LOWER
RISK OF SEVERE AT THIS POINT.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA, BUT THE OVERALL WAVE WILL BE
QUICKLY DAMPENING AS THE MAIN ENERGY REMAINS ACROSS THE SW U.S. SOME
WEAKER DISTURBANCES MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH SMALL RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL "COOL" BACK INTO THE
50S AND 60S (STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL).
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 144 AM EST WED MAR 4 2026
THE FRONT WAS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA NEAR THE OHIO RIVER AT THE
START OF THE TAF PERIOD. AREAS OF RAIN AND SCATTERED STORMS WERE
TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF INDIANA ALONG THE
UPPER FRONT. FARTHER NORTH, A MARINE LAYER WAS SPREADING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF LAKE ERIE AND WAS ENCROACHING ON NORTHWEST
INDIANA WHERE VISIBILITIES WERE FALLING. WENT WITH A LONG
DURATION OF IFR CONDITIONS INCLUDING BOTH THE CEILING AND THE
VISIBILITY AT FWA AS THIS MARINE LAYER ARRIVES AT THE TERMINAL.
RAIN WILL ARRIVE LATER AND SHOULD HELP TO CONTINUE TO SATURATE
THE LOWER LAYERS AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTH. WAS MORE OPTIMISTIC
AT SBN WITH IFR ARRIVING LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ001-002-
004-005-015-016-024-025.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FISHER
AVIATION...SKIPPER
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