802
FXUS63 KIWX 041128
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
628 AM EST WED MAR 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG THIS MORNING MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 69
CORRIDOR. MORE FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT, AND THE FOG MAY BE
LOCALLY DENSE.
- MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS,
WARMEST ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. HIGHS BACK INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
- LULL IN RAIN CHANCES TODAY, BUT INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
- SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, WITH GREATEST SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL LIKELY
REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE, AND A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME HAIL.
- HYDRO CONCERNS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY LIMITED AS THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA. SOME RIVERS WILL RISE AND
COULD REACH ACTION STAGE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 345 AM EST WED MAR 4 2026
THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO BE CONFINED
TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN INDIANA, AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING
AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BECOMES LESS DISTINCT. A FEW SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE NORTH OF THIS PRIMARY AREA OF RAIN TO THE SOUTH AS
LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND HELP PUSH LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTHWARD. OF GREATER IMPACT THIS MORNING HAS
BEEN FOG ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO DUE TO WEAK EASTERLY FLOW REGIME
AND SOME INFLUENCE FROM EASTERN GREAT LAKES MARINE LAYER. NEAR
TERM HIRES PROGS TO SUGGEST THIS POTENTIAL MAY BUILD WESTWARD
INTO NORTHEAST INDIANA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT CONFIDENCE
IS ON THE LOW SIDE IN WESTWARD EXTENT OF DENSE FOG. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NW OHIO THROUGH 15Z, AND IT IS
POSSIBLE A WESTWARD EXPANSION WILL BE NEEDED THIS MORNING.
BASED ON POOR MIXING PROFILES TO THE NORTH OF PRIMARY WEST-EAST
SFC TROUGH TO THE SOUTH, POCKETS OF DENSE FOG COULD LINGER JUST
PAST THE 15Z EXPIRATION TIME.
OTHERWISE TODAY, HAVE MAINTAINED TREND FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST IN
SOME LOWER AFTERNOON POPS AS SYNOPTIC SCALE CONVERGENCE WASHES
OUT AND NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE OF INTEREST LAGS BACK TO THE
WEST. TEMPS MAY ALSO STRUGGLE A BIT TODAY NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND POOR MIXING. SOME
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN TIMING OF HIGHER POPS AGAIN LATE
AFTERNOON/TONIGHT, WITH A POSSIBILITY THAT HIGHER POPS MAY
EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE PUSHED BACK UNTIL AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AS
LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASES WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.
THIS HIGHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS PERSISTS INTO THURSDAY AS UPPER
TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD ALLOWING SOME RESPECTABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES TO BE IN PLACE BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SOME ISO-SCT THUNDER POTENTIAL AS WELL, AND GIVEN COLD CORE
NATURE, CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING SOME SMALL HAIL THURSDAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW
POCKETS OF HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY,
ONE ACROSS THE FAR EAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH BETTER FRONTAL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE, AND THEN IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO COLD CORE
INFLUENCES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH BACK ACROSS NORTHWEST/PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA. FOG WILL LIKELY BECOME WIDESPREAD
AGAIN TONIGHT GIVEN MAINTENANCE OF WEAK EASTERLY FLOW AND MOIST
LOW LEVELS TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL IN SFC BOUNDARY.
SOME BRIEF INFLUX OF DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT
BEFORE AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE PATTERN ALLOWS FOR STRONG WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION FRIDAY VIA NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF LOW LEVEL WARM
FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY
WITH THIS WARM FRONTAL PROGRESSION (PERHAPS A FEW STORMS) ON
FRIDAY, WITH SOME INDICATIONS THAT CAPPING CONCERNS COULD
DEVELOP IN A BRIEF WINDOW LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. A
STRONG PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE AXIS AND A MID LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SHOULD INCREASE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. GIVEN
MAGNITUDE OF POOLED MOISTURE AXIS, SOME MUCAPES ON THE ORDER OF
400-700 J/KG MAY SURVIVE INTO LOCAL AREA FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. GREATEST SEVERE THREAT STILL APPEARS TO BE
WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA DURING THIS PERIOD GIVEN WESTWARD
DISPLACEMENT OF BETTER UPPER SUPPORT AND LATER TIMING LOCALLY,
BUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS AT LEAST APPEAR POSSIBLE DURING THIS
PERIOD GIVEN FAIRLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE
REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ALLOWING
MAINTENANCE OF MUCAPE AXIS. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO, CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS ONCE AGAIN AND A POTENTIAL OF A
FEW STORMS PRODUCING HALF INCH TO ONE INCH HAIL ALONG WITH
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH.
THIS EARLY SATURDAY SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY SHEAR EAST OF THE AREA
FOR THE WEEKEND. LARGE SCALE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY ALLOWING
FOR QUICK TRANSITION BACK TO STRONGER WARM ADVECTION LATE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN ACTIVE SERIES OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORT
WAVES AND POTENTIAL EVENTUAL INGESTION OF CUT-OFF SW CONUS UPPER LOW
SUGGEST MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH UPTICK IN LARGE
SCALE BAROCLINICITY ONCE AGAIN BY THE TUE/WED PERIOD. GOOD DEAL
OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING FRONTAL PLACEMENT AND TIMING
OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES, BUT GIVEN LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT,
BLENDED HIGHER POPS FOR LATER PERIODS STILL SEEM REASONABLE.
TUESDAY SHOULD FEATURE WARM CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE 70S OF GREATEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 619 AM EST WED MAR 4 2026
THE FRONT CONTINUED WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR THE
OHIO RIVER AT THE START OF THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. THE COMBINATION
OF A MARINE LAYER AND THE AIRMASS NORTH OF THE FRONT WAS
SPREADING WEST FROM OHIO INTO NORTHEAST INDIANA WHERE
VISIBILITIES WERE DROPPING UNDER 1 MILE. IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL AT FWA AS THE MARINE LAYER ARRIVES AT THE TERMINAL.
RAIN WILL ARRIVE LATER AND SHOULD HELP TO CONTINUE TO SATURATE
THE LOWER LAYERS AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTH. WAS MORE OPTIMISTIC
ON THE NORTH FRINGE OF THIS SYSTEM AT SBN WITH IFR ARRIVING
AFTER 00Z.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR INZ007-009.
OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ001-002-
004-005-015-016-024-025.
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ080-081.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MARSILI
AVIATION...SKIPPER
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