349
FXUS63 KIWX 050720
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
220 AM EST THU MAR 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF RAIN, DRIZZLE AND FOG TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
- UNSEASONABLY MILD AND BREEZY ON FRIDAY WITH CHANCES (20-60%) FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY (60-80%) LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW STORMS MAY CONTAIN HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS.
- DRY AND REMAINING MILD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 125 PM EST WED MAR 4 2026
FLOW TRAJECTORIES WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND ADVECT AN OHIO
VALLEY THETA-E PLUME INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND
DRIZZLE. THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE OVER A PERSISTENT
NEAR SFC INVERSION THAT HAS HELD LOW CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS IN
PLACE FOR MOST SINCE TUESDAY. A WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE MAY ALSO BRING
GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL VORT AND ATTENDANT SFC REFLECTION, OVER MO AS
OF THIS WRITING, WILL CONTINUE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE/FORCING AND MARGINAL
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7.5 C/KM WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER
SHOWERS/STORMS CAPABLE OF SMALL HAIL AND HEAVIER RAINFALL. OVERALL
EXPECTATIONS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY ARE FOR RAINFALL TOTALS TO
GENERALLY END UP IN THE 0.50-0.75" RANGE, THOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS (BEST
CHANCES SOUTH OF US 24).
FRIDAY WILL FEATURE A TASTE OF SPRING AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEEPENS
IN ADVANCE OF A DIGGING ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS UPPER TROUGH. RESULTING
LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE PLAINS WILL ALSO HELP TRANSPORT GULF
MOISTURE (~60F SFC DEWPOINT) AND MILD AIR NORTHWARD WITHIN A
DEVELOPING 30-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THE
BULK OF THE DAY TO BE DRY/BREEZY WITH THE MAIN MOISTURE CHANNEL
INITIALLY WEST TOWARD THE MS RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER, DID RETAIN POPS
(HIGHEST, 40-60%, OVER NW IN AND SW MI) AS THERE COULD BE A FEW
LOWER AMPLITUDE LEAD WAVES THAT COULD CLIP THE LOCAL AREA.
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE AFORMENTIONED PLAINS/ROCKIES
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT, AND POSSIBLY A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH, WILL TRAIL THIS FEATURE THROUGH THE AREA LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS. SPC'S MARGINAL SEVERE RISK (1 OUT OF 5) STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR
THIS TIMEFRAME GIVEN STRONG BACKGROUND FLOW AND NEAR 60 DEWPOINTS IF
ANY UPSTREAM ACTIVITY CAN HOLD TOGETHER THIS FAR EAST FOR A LOW END
WIND/HAIL THREAT. TRENDING COOLER, YET STILL ABOVE NORMAL, AND DRY
THEN POST-FRONTAL INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 153 AM EST THU MAR 5 2026
DENSE FOG WAS FORMING AND EXPANDING NORTH OF A WARM FROM THAT WAS
SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. SHOWERS WERE ALSO DEVELOPING AND SPREADING
NORTH INTO NORTHERN INDIANA ALONG THE UPPER FRONT. LIFR IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD AS THE FRONT
REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA AND AS MILD AND MOIST AIR CONTINUES TO
SPREAD NORTH. AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD, THE FRONT WAS SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM LAF TO MIE. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH,
BUT WILL STILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z. UNSEASONABLY MILD AND MOIST AIR WILL
CONTINUE OVERRUNNING THE COOL AIR IN THE SECTOR NORTH OF THE
FRONT. THIS PATTERN WILL HELP KEEP A STEADY SUPPLY OF LOW CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION, SO HAVE KEPT VERY LOW CEILINGS FROM 003 TO
006 AT BOTH SITES WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1/2SM AT TIMES.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
INZ005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-
116-203-204-216.
OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ001-002-
004-005-015-016-024-025.
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ078>081-
177-277.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
046.
DISCUSSION...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...SKIPPER
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