978
FXUS63 KIWX 051831
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
131 PM EST THU MAR 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LINGERING SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE TAPER OFF BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
- AREAS OF FOG, LOCALLY DENSE, EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.
- THERE IS A 20-40% CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ON
FRIDAY. SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE.
- BECOMING BREEZY AND UNSEASONABLY MILD FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. NEAR RECORD HIGHS UP NEAR 70 DEGREES POSSIBLE.
- PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. A FEW STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL ALONG WITH LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40
MPH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 130 PM EST THU MAR 5 2026
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OVER NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE AREA BY 21-22Z. STILL COULD SEE
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
ELSEWHERE AS THE PRIMARY UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX AND STEEPER MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SWING THROUGH OVER A MOIST AIR MASS. DEEP LAYER DRYING
AND SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF THE WAVE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS
TONIGHT. FOG, POTENTIALLY DENSE, WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CONCERN
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING HOWEVER GIVEN LIGHT FLOW AND AN
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE STILL TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG INVERSION.
A SURFACE WARM FRONT, STUCK OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ALL WEEK,
WILL FINALLY GET A PUSH NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY
MORNING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
WARM SECTOR MID AFTERNOON FRIDAY THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH AND DEVELOPING SFC
REFLECTION LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY TO
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THERE COULD BE SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW STORMS ALONG
THE WARM FRONT AS IT LIFTS THROUGH ON FRIDAY GIVEN THE MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND POTENTIAL FOR A SMALL SCALE, CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED,
IMPULSE TO LIFT OVER IT IN DEEPENING SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED WITH SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE. A LULL IS THEN EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE WITH BREEZY, MAINLY
DRY AND AN UNSEASONABLY WARM/MOIST AIR MASS SETTLING FRIDAY PM-NIGHT
(HIGHS NEARING THE DAILY RECORD, SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
NEAR 60F).
THE SYSTEM PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT REMAIN ON TARGET TO
MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH A PERIOD
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED. THERE REMAINS A LOW-END
(MARGINAL SVR RISK) THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
(WIND) GIVEN THE STRONG BACKGROUND FLOW/SHEAR AND NEAR 60F DEWPOINTS
ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THESE FEATURES. ALSO OF LOW CONFIDENCE IS
WHETHER THERE COULD BE ENOUGH HEATING BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
RENEWED CONVECTION OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. DRIER AIR THEN
SETTLES IN POST-FRONTAL SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING MILD FOR EARLY MARCH.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1239 PM EST THU MAR 5 2026
LIFR CONDITIONS LINGERING AT BOTH LOCATIONS TO START THE PERIOD
WITH ONLY IMPROVEMENT SO FAR BEING VSBYS INTO MVFR RANGE. MAIN
AREA OF RAIN HAS MOVED AWAY WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OR A BIT OF DRIZZLE FOR A FEW HOURS. VSBYS WILL DROP
ONCE AGAIN, ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT REMAINS TO OUR
SOUTH. HAVE PLAYED THINGS SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW, BUT
DENSE FOG COULD REAPPEAR, ESPECIALLY LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THE
WARM FRONT DOES WORK RAPIDLY NORTH WITH KFWA ENTERING THE WARM
SECTOR CLOSE TO THE END OF THE PERIOD RESULTING IN A SHIFT TO
IFR CONDITIONS.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...FISHER
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