962
FXUS63 KIWX 060520
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1220 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING.
VISIBILITY MAY BE AS LOW AS 1/4 MILE AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY IN
LOCATIONS NORTH OF US 30.
- THERE IS A 20-40% CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE.
- MILD TEMPERATURES PERSIST WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S TODAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY.
- ADDITIONAL RAIN AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY. A FEW
STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
ALONG WITH LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 130 PM EST THU MAR 5 2026
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OVER NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE AREA BY 21-22Z. STILL COULD SEE
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
ELSEWHERE AS THE PRIMARY UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX AND STEEPER MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SWING THROUGH OVER A MOIST AIR MASS. DEEP LAYER DRYING
AND SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF THE WAVE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS
TONIGHT. FOG, POTENTIALLY DENSE, WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CONCERN
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING HOWEVER GIVEN LIGHT FLOW AND AN
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE STILL TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG INVERSION.
A SURFACE WARM FRONT, STUCK OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ALL WEEK,
WILL FINALLY GET A PUSH NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY
MORNING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
WARM SECTOR MID AFTERNOON FRIDAY THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH AND DEVELOPING SFC
REFLECTION LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY TO
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THERE COULD BE SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW STORMS ALONG
THE WARM FRONT AS IT LIFTS THROUGH ON FRIDAY GIVEN THE MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND POTENTIAL FOR A SMALL SCALE, CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED,
IMPULSE TO LIFT OVER IT IN DEEPENING SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED WITH SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE. A LULL IS THEN EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE WITH BREEZY, MAINLY
DRY AND AN UNSEASONABLY WARM/MOIST AIR MASS SETTLING FRIDAY PM-NIGHT
(HIGHS NEARING THE DAILY RECORD, SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
NEAR 60F).
THE SYSTEM PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT REMAIN ON TARGET TO
MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH A PERIOD
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED. THERE REMAINS A LOW-END
(MARGINAL SVR RISK) THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
(WIND) GIVEN THE STRONG BACKGROUND FLOW/SHEAR AND NEAR 60F DEWPOINTS
ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THESE FEATURES. ALSO OF LOW CONFIDENCE IS
WHETHER THERE COULD BE ENOUGH HEATING BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
RENEWED CONVECTION OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. DRIER AIR THEN
SETTLES IN POST-FRONTAL SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING MILD FOR EARLY MARCH.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1211 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2026
PER SURFACE OBSERVATIONS, A WARM FRONT IS BUCKLED RIGHT OVER US
30 ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA. THIS FRONT HAS STALLED SINCE
YESTERDAY EVENING, ALLOWING FOR DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE
VICINITY OF AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. LIFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING,
ESPECIALLY AT KSBN. VISIBILITIES AT KFWA MAY BE A BIT MORE
VARIABLE (BETWEEN 1/4 TO 2 MILES) OVERNIGHT DUE TO THEIR
LOCATION JUST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO HIGH END IFR AFTER DAYBREAK AND FOG SHOULD
LIFT LATER THIS MORNING BY 14-15Z. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH, A COMPLEX OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED STORMS WILL LIFT THROUGH
THE MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR RAIN AND A FEW STORMS
ARE HIGHEST IN NW INDIANA BETWEEN 16-21Z TODAY, WHERE MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY GUSTY TODAY AHEAD OF AN INCOMING COLD
FRONT; GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD, SOME LLWS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. JUST BEYOND THE
SCOPE OF THIS TAF PERIOD, EXPECT RAIN AND STORM CHANCES TO
RETURN EARLY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
INZ005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>025-103-104-116-203-
204-216.
OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ001-002-
004-005.
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ078>081-
177-277.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JOHNSON
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