473
FXUS63 KIWX 061831
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
131 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS (20-50%) THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING, MAINLY NORTH OF US 24 CORRIDOR. A FEW STORMS COULD
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH.
- A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS (80%+) TRACKS THROUGH LATER
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE THREATS OF ISOLATED WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 50 MPH AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
- DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BUT MORE SHOWERS
AND STORMS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 130 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2026
WARM FRONT NEARING THE MI BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH FOG GIVING WAY TO NEAR RECORD WARMTH AND
INCREASINGLY BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CHANCES
(20-50%) FOR A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS TO CLIP AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF THE
US 24 CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A SUBTLE MID LEVEL
IMPULSE LIFTS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND TRAILING OUTFLOW FROM
UPSTREAM CONVECTION ATTEMPTS TO FOLD EAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. OVERALL FORCING IS WEAK, BUT RAMPING BACKGROUND FLOW AND UP
TO 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE CONTINUES TO HINT AT THE LOW CHANCE (MARGINAL
SVR RISK / 5%) FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG-TO-SEVERE STORM. SOMEWHAT
BREEZY AND UNSEASONABLY MILD THE STORY OTHERWISE INTO MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY HOLDING IN THE LOW-MID 60S.
BETTER PROSPECTS FOR A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVES LATER
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE WESTERN/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
SENDING A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND MOISTURE AXIS THROUGH. A
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED SHORTWAVE COULD ALSO ENHANCE RAIN/THUNDER
COVERAGE DURING THIS TIME, THOUGH EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THIS INCOMING
CONVECTION TO COME THROUGH IN A WEAKENED STATE DUE TO OUTPACING
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING. WITH
THAT SAID, STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A MARGINALLY STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
GIVEN THE PRE-FRONTAL 60F DEWPOINT AIR AND STRONG BACKGROUND FLOW.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL THEN FEATURE THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COLD
FRONT WITH BREEZY/MILD CONDITIONS AND THE CHANCE (30-40%) FOR
RENEWED SHOWER/ISO STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT. AIR MASS WILL
LIKELY BE PRETTY WORKED OVER WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY FOR THE COLD
FRONT LIMITING COVERAGE AND THE SEVERE THREAT.
SUNDAY INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A TRANSITION TO QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW WITH SEVERAL STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAKS TRAVERSING
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE LOWER 48. SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE A COUPLE OF
DRY DAYS WITH TEMPS LIKELY RECOVERING UP TO NEAR 70F EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLUTIONS THEN CONTINUE TO
POINT TO LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE NEXT GOOD
CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER AS BUCKLE IN THE
JET SENDS A DECENT FRONTAL WAVE THROUGH. COOLER, YET STILL ABOVE
NORMAL, WEATHER THEN TO FOLLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2026
VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED SOME AT THE TERMINALS, BUT LOW
CEILINGS PERSIST CAUSING IFR CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW
ON IF RAIN AND STORMS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE AT SBN AFTER 20Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY GUSTY TODAY AHEAD OF AN INCOMING COLD
FRONT; GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25-30 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME LLWS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THERE WILL THEN BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 10Z AND INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...COBB
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