677
FXUS63 KIWX 070522
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1222 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS (80%+) TRACKS THROUGH LATER
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE THREATS OF ISOLATED WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 50 MPH AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
- DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BUT MORE SHOWERS
AND STORMS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 130 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2026
WARM FRONT NEARING THE MI BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH FOG GIVING WAY TO NEAR RECORD WARMTH AND
INCREASINGLY BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CHANCES
(20-50%) FOR A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS TO CLIP AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF THE
US 24 CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A SUBTLE MID LEVEL
IMPULSE LIFTS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND TRAILING OUTFLOW FROM
UPSTREAM CONVECTION ATTEMPTS TO FOLD EAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. OVERALL FORCING IS WEAK, BUT RAMPING BACKGROUND FLOW AND UP
TO 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE CONTINUES TO HINT AT THE LOW CHANCE (MARGINAL
SVR RISK / 5%) FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG-TO-SEVERE STORM. SOMEWHAT
BREEZY AND UNSEASONABLY MILD THE STORY OTHERWISE INTO MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY HOLDING IN THE LOW-MID 60S.
BETTER PROSPECTS FOR A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVES LATER
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE WESTERN/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
SENDING A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND MOISTURE AXIS THROUGH. A
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED SHORTWAVE COULD ALSO ENHANCE RAIN/THUNDER
COVERAGE DURING THIS TIME, THOUGH EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THIS INCOMING
CONVECTION TO COME THROUGH IN A WEAKENED STATE DUE TO OUTPACING
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING. WITH
THAT SAID, STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A MARGINALLY STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
GIVEN THE PRE-FRONTAL 60F DEWPOINT AIR AND STRONG BACKGROUND FLOW.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL THEN FEATURE THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COLD
FRONT WITH BREEZY/MILD CONDITIONS AND THE CHANCE (30-40%) FOR
RENEWED SHOWER/ISO STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT. AIR MASS WILL
LIKELY BE PRETTY WORKED OVER WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY FOR THE COLD
FRONT LIMITING COVERAGE AND THE SEVERE THREAT.
SUNDAY INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A TRANSITION TO QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW WITH SEVERAL STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAKS TRAVERSING
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE LOWER 48. SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE A COUPLE OF
DRY DAYS WITH TEMPS LIKELY RECOVERING UP TO NEAR 70F EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLUTIONS THEN CONTINUE TO
POINT TO LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE NEXT GOOD
CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER AS BUCKLE IN THE
JET SENDS A DECENT FRONTAL WAVE THROUGH. COOLER, YET STILL ABOVE
NORMAL, WEATHER THEN TO FOLLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1219 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2026
WE ARE WATCHING ONGOING CONVECTION OUT OF IOWA AND MISSOURI
THAT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AND MOVE INTO NORTHERN INDIANA BY
DAYBREAK. FOR NOW, CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY AND QUIET WITH
VARIABLE WINDS. WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY GUSTY OUT OF THE
SOUTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AGAIN WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25
KTS POSSIBLE. THE BEST CHANCES FOR MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE BETWEEN 10-13Z AT
KSBN AND 11-14Z AT KFWA. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOST IMPACTFUL
THIS MORNING, ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A BRIEF RESURGENCE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH AN INCOMING COLD FRONT BETWEEN 18-22Z. CONFIDENCE
IS LOWER ON THIS AFTERNOON ROUND SO HAVE LEFT THOSE CHANCES
MAINLY IN PROB30 GROUPS FOR BOTH TERMINALS. WINDS DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET TONIGHT AND SHIFT TO BE COMING FROM THE WEST.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
046.
DISCUSSION...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JOHNSON
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