862
FXUS63 KIWX 081028
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
628 AM EDT SUN MAR 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER AND BREEZY TODAY BUT TEMPERATURES STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR EARLY MARCH.
- MORE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS VERY LOW AT THIS FORECAST
DISTANCE.
- TEMPERATURES WARM BACK UP FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH NEAR-
RECORD OR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN MAR 8 2026
A PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING WILL LEAD TO A
LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BUILDING INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH A MUCH DRIER
LOW LEVEL AIRMASS AS SAMPLED BY KOAX AND KDVN RAOBS LAST
EVENING (PWATS ~ 0.20 INCHES). SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS MORNING AS A LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA. THIS THERMAL TROUGH WILL HAVE A SHORT
RESIDENCE TIME LOCALLY AS A BROAD WESTERLY FLOW REGIME ALLOWS
FOR QUICK TRANSITION TO LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
UNDER THIS WARM ADVECTION, MIXING HEIGHTS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
900 MB OR SO, BUT MIXING TO THIS LEVEL AND THE WAA SHOULD
SUPPORT HIGHS BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. DESPITE THE
RELATIVELY SHALLOW MIXING, LOW LEVEL WIND MAGNITUDES SHOULD
SUPPORT AFTERNOON GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
MORE MILD TONIGHT (LOW-MID 40S) DESPITE THE EXPECTATION OF
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES DUE TO SOME RESPECTABLE SOUTHWESTERLY
GRADIENT BEING MAINTAINED.
ZONAL FLOW AND DRY DEEP COLUMN PERSISTS INTO MONDAY. THE PERSISTENCE
OF THIS LOW/MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MODIFIED AIR IN
THE LEE OF ROCKIES TO ADVECT EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY WHICH WILL RESULT IN HIGHS BACK TO THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 MONDAY AFTERNOON. BY MONDAY NIGHT, A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH
SHOULD EMERGE FROM ROCKIES WITH FIRST SHOT OF MORE RESPECTABLE
LOW/MID LEVEL POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION. THIS COULD GIVE USE TO
SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY, BUT WILL LIKELY BE JUST ACCOMPANIED BY SOME INCREASED
CLOUDINESS IN RESPONSE TO THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT. NEAR-RECORD OR
RECORD HIGHS APPEAR POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THE MAIN PERIOD OF CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE CENTRAL CONUS BECOMES IMPACTED BY A VERY ACTIVE
EASTERN PACIFIC PATTERN. AN EASTERN PACIFIC JET STREAK WILL ALLOW
FOR MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CONUS
ON TUESDAY WHILE AT THE SAME A CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL NEGATIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALY BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS TX PANHANDLE. A LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST WILL
SHARPEN EARLY TUESDAY AS THIS PACIFIC NORTHWEST WAVE EMERGES AND
WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THERE
IS STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO EXTENT OF LOW/MID LEVEL LIFT DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY AS BETTER DYNAMICS REMAIN WELL UPSTREAM. ADVECTIVE
FORCING WILL BE STRONG HOWEVER, AS A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS 1.25 TO 1.50
INCH PWAT AXIS ADVECTS INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT. CURRENT
INDICATIONS SUGGEST A POTENTIAL OF A SHARP INSTABILITY GRADIENT
SETTING UP SOMEWHERE FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. WITH POSSIBLE LACK OF STRONGER LARGE SCALE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THERE COULD BE SOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION TO
OVERCOME DUE TO LOW LEVEL INVERSION, AT LEAST UNTIL CORE OF
ANOMALOUS PWAT AXIS FULLY BUILDS IN SOME TIME LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
OR TUESDAY EVENING. DID MAINTAIN JUST MID RANGE CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE FAR WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT IT IS POSSIBLE SOME DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENT MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
AN INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET, ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, AND
POSITION OF LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES SHOULD ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WHILE FINER DETAILS REMAIN OF LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS FORECAST DISTANCE, GREATEST POTENTIAL OF
SEVERE MAY BE TUESDAY EVENING INTO PORTIONS OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME TUESDAY
EVENING, WITH EARLY INDICATIONS SUGGEST BEST CAPE PROFILES
POTENTIALLY ACROSS WEST/SOUTHWEST. PERHAPS THE BEST INGREDIENT
IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETER SPACE IS THE KINEMATIC
PROFILES AND DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL SPEED SHEAR
ATOP SOME LOW LEVEL VEERING. A SCENARIO COULD EVOLVE WHERE THIS
SETS UP TO A LATE NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY HEAVY RAIN SCENARIO
DUE TO PARALLEL NATURE OF SHEAR TO THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY,
INCREASING WARM CLOUD DEPTHS, AND SHRINKING PROPAGATION
VELOCITIES DUE TO THE DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE OF THE FLOW.
PORTIONS OF MAUMEE/ST.JOSEPH BASINS ARE EXPERIENCING SOME STAGES
NEAR ACTION STAGE AS A RESULT OF RECENT WET PERIOD, SO WE MAY
NEED TO WATCH FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL TO PUSH SOME SITES INTO
FLOOD STAGE LATER THIS WEEK.
BY WEDNESDAY, GUIDANCE DOES HAVE A DECENT OVERALL CONSENSUS IN SOME
TYPE OF PHASING BETWEEN CUT-OFF SOUTHERN CONUS TROUGH AND THE
AMPLIFYING EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME BETTER
DEEPENING RATES OF ASSOCIATED EASTERN GREAT LAKES CYCLONE BY
WEDNESDAY, BUT THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR EAST PRIMARY INSTABILITY
AXIS IS BY THIS TIME. THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL THAT MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES COULD BE QUITE WEAK LOCALLY BY WEDNESDAY IN COMPARISON TO
TUESDAY. HOWEVER, MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR SOME SEVERE
RISK/ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL, PARTICULARLY
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AREAS WEDNESDAY DUE TO A POTENTIAL OF A STRONG
FRONTAL RESPONSE WITH THIS PHASING SYSTEM. SOME SNOW STILL LOOKS
LIKE A POSSIBILITY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE PRECIP ENDS
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST FEATURES NO SIGNS OF A LETTING UP OF
THE ACTIVE EASTERN PACIFIC PATTERN ALTHOUGH UNDER THE BACKGROUND OF
COOLER LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES THAT COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW
CHANCES WITH A CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY. SOME
INDICATIONS ALSO IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS OF A STRONGER
SYSTEM LATE WEEKEND, BUT STILL AN EXPECTED WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS
REGARDING TRACK/STRENGTH.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 626 AM EDT SUN MAR 8 2026
CLEARING CAN BE SEEN ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY BEGINNING IN
NORTHWEST INDIANA. BY 12Z, CLEARING SHOULD BE ONGOING FOR MUCH
OF NORTHERN INDIANA. CEILINGS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE FROM LOW
END MVFR TO VFR THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS AS CLOUDS DIMINISH.
WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING NORTH, EXPECT
INCREASING GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BE SUSTAINED BETWEEN 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KTS.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
046.
DISCUSSION...MARSILI
AVIATION...JOHNSON
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