197
FXUS63 KIWX 091731
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
131 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS WEEK WITH RECORD OR NEAR-
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TUESDAY.
- AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE STORMS, MAINLY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY NIGHT. ALL SEVERE
HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT, EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONING TO A HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING
THREAT LATE IN THE NIGHT.
- A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION WILL INTERACT WITH
SEVERAL OTHER SYSTEMS FOR PERIODIC CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW
LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2026
STRONG WARM ADVECTION HELPS TAKE OUR TEMPERATURES UP TO THE MID 60S
TO LOW 70S TODAY ALLOWING TEMPERATURE RECORDS TO BE IN PLAY. A THETA-
E PLUME COMES IN THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AN ATTEMPT AT
TRYING TO GET SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY IN HERE, WILL CONTINUE A
LOW POP MENTION OF RAIN, WHICH COULD BE DRIZZLE, BUT WILL AT LEAST
BE LOW STRATUS THAT CONTINUES INTO EARLY TUESDAY AND THIS COULD
AFFECT THE CHANCE FOR RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES BEING OBSERVED
TUESDAY AS WELL.
THERE IS MODEL AGREEMENT ON BRINGING A VORT MAX THROUGH THE
AREA AROUND OR JUST AFTER 18Z AND THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO UP- END
THE LINGERING MOISTURE AND ALLOW FOR SOME SURFACE HEATING.
DURING THIS TIME, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SINKING SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARDS THE IN/MI BORDER AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS TRAVERSING
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL PROBABLY
HAVE ENOUGH LIFT TO CAUSE SHOWERS/STORMS BY THAT POINT (AROUND
00Z). THIS IS ALSO AROUND WHEN A LOW LEVEL JET ARRIVES. THE
BOUNDARY PARALLEL WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR A TENDENCY TOWARDS LINEAR
CELL STRUCTURES, BUT GIVEN THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL BE ARRIVING
DURING THE DAY, WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE INITIAL DISCRETE
STRUCTURES AS WELL. BETTER EFFECTIVE SHEAR (30+ KTS) AND
HELICITY ARRIVES AFTER 00Z AND INSTABILITY WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO
FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH 60 DEGREE DEW POINTS WORKING
THEIR WAY INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AROUND 00Z.
MEANWHILE, IT IS ALSO BEING MODELED THAT WE'LL ALSO HAVE AN EML
(MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES 7+ C/KM) TO WORK WITH AS LONG AS IT'S NOT
TAINTED UPON ADVECTION UP HERE. GIVEN THESE PARAMETERS IN
PLACE, ALL HAZARDS WILL BE IN PLAY SO THAT'S DAMAGING WINDS,
LARGE HAIL, TORNADOES, AND FLOODING. WE ALREADY HAVE A FEW
RIVERS IN ACTION STAGE FROM THE PREVIOUS STORM MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHERN LOWER MI. IN ADDITION TO BOUNDARY- PARALLEL FLOW,
SLOWING MBE VECTORS OVERNIGHT MAIN CONTRIBUTE TO THE
BACKBUILDING/TRAINING POTENTIAL OF STORMS, ALL MAKING FLOODING
MORE POSSIBLE.
THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD ARRIVING IN THE I-69 CORRIDOR
AROUND 18Z. SO, THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT IF WE'LL BE ABLE TO
REMOVE MOISTURE FROM LINGERING RAIN AND RECOVER INSTABILITY IN HERE
IN TIME FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO START THAT FAR WEST. SPC HAS THEIR
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY STARTING RIGHT OVER
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. THE VORT FINALLY PUSHING THE COLD AIR INTO THE
AREA HAS MORE OF A WEST TO EAST TRAJECTORY AS OPPOSED TO NORTH TO
SOUTH MEANING THE COLD WILL BE MORE TRANSITORY AND HAVE LESS
MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR A KIND OF ANA-FRONTAL SNOW PERIOD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES DO LOOK TO FALL BACK INTO THE 20S WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THOUGH AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY LOOK TO FALL BACK TOWARDS
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES, IN THE 40S.
WITH THE COOLER AIR IN MIND, ATTENTION TURNS TO THURSDAY NIGHT/
FRIDAY MORNING WHEN INTERACTION BETWEEN VORT MAXES ATTEMPTING
TO PHASE CAUSES DEEPENING OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT APPEAR MORE MARGINAL,
BUT PERHAPS THEY WOULD HAVE TO COME DOWN A LITTLE FROM WHAT WE
HAVE IN THERE, RANGING THROUGH THE 30S. AT THE VERY LEAST, SOME
MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN WOULD BE POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY, A STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET MOVING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MAY BE ENOUGH TO MAKE
IT BREEZY TO GUSTY. CURRENTLY HAVE 30 KT GUSTS IN THE FORECAST,
BUT THE TIMING OF THE JET WILL BE KEY TO GETTING HIGHER GUSTS
BECAUSE MISMATCHED MIXING AND JET PASSAGE MAY LIMIT GUSTS.
THE FRIDAY SYSTEM LEAVES BEHIND A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY THAT THE
WEEKEND (PROBABLY SUNDAY) SYSTEM WILL BE ABLE TO RIDE ALONG AND
DEVELOP. COUPLED JETS ARE CURRENTLY MODELED AS BEING ABLE TO HELP
DEEPENING AND DEVELOPMENT OF A SYSTEM THAT TRACKS FROM IL INTO MI,
WHICH WOULD POINT TO A RAIN SYSTEM. TRACK AND MODELING THAT FAR OUT
CAN STILL CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN, ESPECIALLY WITH A BAROCLINIC
BOUNDARY IN PLAY. THE PLACEMENT OF THAT WILL BE IMPORTANT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1221 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2026
FOCUS WILL BE IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD AS WAA AND A WEAK
WAVE RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF MVFR (POSSIBLY IFR) STRATUS,
SOME 2-5SM FOG/MIST AND MAYBE SOME DRIZZLE. HAVE ADDED A
MENTION TO BOTH SITES BUT NOT OVERLY AGGRESSIVE AT THIS POINT.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
046.
DISCUSSION...ROLLER
AVIATION...FISHER
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