713
FXUS63 KIWX 270559
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
159 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN EXITS DURING THE EARLY MORNING AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
- IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER TODAY AND SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S BUT TEMPS SLOWLY RETURN TO THE 70S BY TUESDAY.
- ADDITIONAL RAIN AND STORMS ARE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 159 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
POSTFRONTAL RAIN CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SINK SE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
SOME BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING YIELDING HIGH PRESSURE/SUBSIDENCE OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. ANTICIPATE DRY CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE BY
SUNRISE. SOME POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
MINOR/NUISANCE PONDING IN LOW AREAS BUT OVERALL FLOOD THREAT REMAINS
MINIMAL DUE TO WANING INSTABILITY AND QUICK STORM MOTIONS. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A
SECONDARY (MUCH MORE POTENT) MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. IT'S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE A FEW
FLURRIES IN OUR N/NE ZONES OVERNIGHT BUT SEEMS THAT THE DEGREE OF
DRY/STABLE AIR IN PLACE WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP AND CURRENTLY
HOLDING WITH A DRY FORECAST. IT WILL BE COOL TODAY AND SAT AS 850MB
TEMPS DROP NEAR -10C TONIGHT IN STRONG CAA. CALENDAR-DAY HIGHS
LIKELY ALREADY SET IN MANY LOCATIONS. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
THROUGH THE MORNING AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR RISE JUST A FEW DEGREES
DURING THE AFTERNOON GIVEN DECREASING CLOUDS. LOWS TONIGHT DROP WELL
INTO THE 20S UNDER STEADY NORTH WIND AND JUST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
TEMPS BEGIN TO REBOUND SAT WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND SOME LATE DAY WAA
BUT THE WAA REALLY RAMPS UP ON SUN. THERE COULD EVEN BE A FEW
SHOWERS ON SUN GIVEN STRENGTHENING WAA BUT WILL HOLD OFF MENTIONING
FOR NOW. NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES MON NIGHT AND PERSISTS
THROUGH WED (THOUGH THERE WILL BE BREAKS, OF COURSE). ANOTHER
MIDLEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES WITH STRONG THETA-E
ADVECTION AHEAD OF A SHARP COLD FRONT CROSSING TUE NIGHT/WED. THIS
IS A VERY SIMILAR SETUP TO THE PREVIOUS FEW EVENTS AND WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON ANOTHER POTENTIAL ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER. FORECAST
FOR LATE NEXT WEEK IS VERY UNCERTAIN GIVEN SOME WILD INCONSISTENCIES
FROM MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN BUT OVERALL LOOKS LIKE THE ACTIVE
PATTERN WILL BE HERE FOR A WHILE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 159 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST PORTION OF THE
PERIOD, WITH N-NE WINDS INTERMITTENTLY GUSTING TO AROUND 20-25 KNOTS
THROUGH AROUND 9Z OR SO. LIGHT RAIN WILL PERSIST AT KFWA THROUGH
AROUND 9-10Z. PERIODS OF VISIBILITY DROPPING TO AROUND 4SM AND
CEILINGS AS LOW AS 800FT ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THAT TIME FRAME.
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SURROUNDING THE TERMINAL AND JUST UPSTREAM
RANGE ANYWHERE FROM 500-1000FT AT THE LOWEST, TO AROUND 1500FT.
EXPECT THESE TO FILTER INTO KFWA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT LEAST
INTERMITTENTLY. OTHERWISE EXPECT AROUND 1500-2000FT. IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR IS EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING AT BOTH SITES, AND WINDS SHIFT BACK
TO THE N-NW. GUSTS UP TO 20-25KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT KFWA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...AGD
AVIATION...MCD
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