210
FXUS63 KIWX 270956
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
556 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER TODAY AND SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S BUT TEMPS SLOWLY RETURN TO THE 70S BY TUESDAY.
- ADDITIONAL RAIN AND STORMS ARE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 159 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
POSTFRONTAL RAIN CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SINK SE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
SOME BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING YIELDING HIGH PRESSURE/SUBSIDENCE OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. ANTICIPATE DRY CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE BY
SUNRISE. SOME POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
MINOR/NUISANCE PONDING IN LOW AREAS BUT OVERALL FLOOD THREAT REMAINS
MINIMAL DUE TO WANING INSTABILITY AND QUICK STORM MOTIONS. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A
SECONDARY (MUCH MORE POTENT) MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. IT'S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE A FEW
FLURRIES IN OUR N/NE ZONES OVERNIGHT BUT SEEMS THAT THE DEGREE OF
DRY/STABLE AIR IN PLACE WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP AND CURRENTLY
HOLDING WITH A DRY FORECAST. IT WILL BE COOL TODAY AND SAT AS 850MB
TEMPS DROP NEAR -10C TONIGHT IN STRONG CAA. CALENDAR-DAY HIGHS
LIKELY ALREADY SET IN MANY LOCATIONS. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
THROUGH THE MORNING AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR RISE JUST A FEW DEGREES
DURING THE AFTERNOON GIVEN DECREASING CLOUDS. LOWS TONIGHT DROP WELL
INTO THE 20S UNDER STEADY NORTH WIND AND JUST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
TEMPS BEGIN TO REBOUND SAT WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND SOME LATE DAY WAA
BUT THE WAA REALLY RAMPS UP ON SUN. THERE COULD EVEN BE A FEW
SHOWERS ON SUN GIVEN STRENGTHENING WAA BUT WILL HOLD OFF MENTIONING
FOR NOW. NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES MON NIGHT AND PERSISTS
THROUGH WED (THOUGH THERE WILL BE BREAKS, OF COURSE). ANOTHER
MIDLEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES WITH STRONG THETA-E
ADVECTION AHEAD OF A SHARP COLD FRONT CROSSING TUE NIGHT/WED. THIS
IS A VERY SIMILAR SETUP TO THE PREVIOUS FEW EVENTS AND WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON ANOTHER POTENTIAL ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER. FORECAST
FOR LATE NEXT WEEK IS VERY UNCERTAIN GIVEN SOME WILD INCONSISTENCIES
FROM MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN BUT OVERALL LOOKS LIKE THE ACTIVE
PATTERN WILL BE HERE FOR A WHILE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 553 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
MINIMAL CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. MVFR TO IFR
PREVAILTHIS MORNING, ALTHOUGH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING
STARTING TO OCCUR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THROUGHOUT THE MORNING,
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE, WITH VFR CEILINGS PREVAILING BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST WINDS MAY
INTERMITTENTLY GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS THROUGH AROUND 12-15Z AT
KFWA BEFORE BRIEF LULL AROUND MIDDAY. WINDS THEN SHIFT BACK TO
THE NORTH/NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN BY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
046.
DISCUSSION...AGD
AVIATION...JOHNSON
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