391
FXUS63 KIWX 271754
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
154 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER TODAY AND SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S BUT TEMPS SLOWLY RETURN TO THE 70S BY TUESDAY.
- ADDITIONAL RAIN AND STORMS ARE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 159 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
POSTFRONTAL RAIN CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SINK SE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
SOME BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING YIELDING HIGH PRESSURE/SUBSIDENCE OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. ANTICIPATE DRY CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE BY
SUNRISE. SOME POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
MINOR/NUISANCE PONDING IN LOW AREAS BUT OVERALL FLOOD THREAT REMAINS
MINIMAL DUE TO WANING INSTABILITY AND QUICK STORM MOTIONS. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A
SECONDARY (MUCH MORE POTENT) MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. IT'S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE A FEW
FLURRIES IN OUR N/NE ZONES OVERNIGHT BUT SEEMS THAT THE DEGREE OF
DRY/STABLE AIR IN PLACE WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP AND CURRENTLY
HOLDING WITH A DRY FORECAST. IT WILL BE COOL TODAY AND SAT AS 850MB
TEMPS DROP NEAR -10C TONIGHT IN STRONG CAA. CALENDAR-DAY HIGHS
LIKELY ALREADY SET IN MANY LOCATIONS. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
THROUGH THE MORNING AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR RISE JUST A FEW DEGREES
DURING THE AFTERNOON GIVEN DECREASING CLOUDS. LOWS TONIGHT DROP WELL
INTO THE 20S UNDER STEADY NORTH WIND AND JUST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
TEMPS BEGIN TO REBOUND SAT WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND SOME LATE DAY WAA
BUT THE WAA REALLY RAMPS UP ON SUN. THERE COULD EVEN BE A FEW
SHOWERS ON SUN GIVEN STRENGTHENING WAA BUT WILL HOLD OFF MENTIONING
FOR NOW. NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES MON NIGHT AND PERSISTS
THROUGH WED (THOUGH THERE WILL BE BREAKS, OF COURSE). ANOTHER
MIDLEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES WITH STRONG THETA-E
ADVECTION AHEAD OF A SHARP COLD FRONT CROSSING TUE NIGHT/WED. THIS
IS A VERY SIMILAR SETUP TO THE PREVIOUS FEW EVENTS AND WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON ANOTHER POTENTIAL ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER. FORECAST
FOR LATE NEXT WEEK IS VERY UNCERTAIN GIVEN SOME WILD INCONSISTENCIES
FROM MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN BUT OVERALL LOOKS LIKE THE ACTIVE
PATTERN WILL BE HERE FOR A WHILE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 152 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH INVERTED SFC TROUGH FEATURE AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION HAVE ALLOWED FOR MAINTENANCE OF MVFR STRATOCU
TODAY. THIS INVERTED TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR THE LIGHTER
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS AT KFWA TO BECOME NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING INTO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. MVFR STRATOCU SHOULD
CONTINUE TO THIN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WITH
GRADUAL RISING BASES WITH THIS DECK. A VORT MAX ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
THIS EVENING WITH ANOTHER SFC TROUGH AND REINFORCING COLD
FRONTAL PUSH LIKELY BRINGING A PERIOD OF SOME VFR STRATOCU
OVERNIGHT. STRONG DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE WILL BE IN STORE FOR
SATURDAY WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AS SFC
ANTICYCLONE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
046.
DISCUSSION...AGD
AVIATION...MARSILI
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