437
FXUS63 KIWX 271811
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
211 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CHILLY TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND HIGHS IN
THE 40S.
- WARMING TREND SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S
BY TUESDAY.
- SHOWERS AND CHANCES FOR STORMS RETURN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, BEST CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT (70%).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT BRINGING A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLDER AIR THROUGH
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW FLURRIES MAY EVEN CLIP NORTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT ALONG THE ASSOCIATED SECONDARY
TROUGH. A BROAD SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY
BEHIND TONIGHT'S WAVE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
THERMAL TROUGHING WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE HOWEVER WITH SATURDAY'S
HIGHS ONLY REACH THE 40S.
LOW AMPLITUDE, UPPER RIDGING BUILDS EAST INTO THE MIDWEST SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY, WHILE LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES ON THE
BACKSIDE OF SATURDAY'S LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. THIS WILL SUPPORT A
WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS RECOVERING UP TO NEAR 60 SUNDAY, AND 70
MONDAY. BETTER MOISTURE RETURN IN THIS REGIME DOESN'T REALLY KICK IN
UNTIL LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHEN A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
THROUGH. DEEPER MOISTURE DOES APPEAR LIMITED HOWEVER WITH A DRY
FORECAST RETAINED.
A RELATIVELY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
UPPER WAVE AND ONGOING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL ALLOW A SFC
LOW TO DEVELOP INTO THE WESTERN/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES, WHICH WILL
EVENTUALLY FORCE A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH AROUND TUESDAY NIGHT.
A LEAD WAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS AND DECENT ADVECTIVE
FORCING COULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SHOWERS/STORMS AS EARLY AS
MONDAY NIGHT, WITH MOST OF TUESDAY LIKELY WARM, BREEZY AND UNSTABLE
IN THE SYSTEM WARM SECTOR. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE
GOOD FORCING AND ADEQUATE MOISTURE/LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY. THERE
REMAINS MODEL SPREAD HOWEVER REGARDING THE TIMING AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN. WITH THAT SAID, THIS IS THE NEXT PERIOD OF
INTEREST TO WATCH FOR HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 152 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH INVERTED SFC TROUGH FEATURE AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION HAVE ALLOWED FOR MAINTENANCE OF MVFR STRATOCU
TODAY. THIS INVERTED TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR THE LIGHTER
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS AT KFWA TO BECOME NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING INTO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. MVFR STRATOCU SHOULD
CONTINUE TO THIN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WITH
GRADUAL RISING BASES WITH THIS DECK. A VORT MAX ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
THIS EVENING WITH ANOTHER SFC TROUGH AND REINFORCING COLD
FRONTAL PUSH LIKELY BRINGING A PERIOD OF SOME VFR STRATOCU
OVERNIGHT. STRONG DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE WILL BE IN STORE FOR
SATURDAY WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AS SFC
ANTICYCLONE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
046.
DISCUSSION...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI
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