668
FXUS63 KIWX 281802
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
202 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGHEST CHANCES, INCLUDING AN OPPORTUNITY
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, WILL BE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY EVENING (60-80%).
- COOLER MIDWEEK WITH ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNTIES FOR RAIN THURSDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
TRANQUIL WX AND A SUBSTANTIAL WARMING TREND THE STORY INTO SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING RETURN
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP. BETTER MOISTURE RETURN WITHIN
DEEPENING SOUTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO BE DELAYED UNTIL LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WHEN A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. SUBTLE, CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED, MID LEVEL IMPULSES IN ZONAL
FLOW LIKELY INTERACT WITH THE WARM FRONT AND THETA-E RIDGE BY THIS
TIME FOR RENEWED SHOWER/STORM CHANCES (30-50%) ACROSS MAINLY
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ANY ACTIVITY IN THIS REGIME
WOULD BE ELEVATED WITH HAIL POSSIBLE (MUCH BETTER CHANCES OFF TO THE
NORTH).
THE BULK OF AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE GETS MOST OF THE AREA INTO THE
WARM SECTOR FOR A TIME ON TUESDAY AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE AND
DEVELOPING SFC REFLECTION TRACK EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGH
TEMPS TO GET WELL INTO THE 70S, AND POSSIBLY LOW 80S DEPENDING ON
LINGERING CLOUD DEBRIS. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEPER MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND NEAR 60F SFC DEWPOINTS WOULD RESULT IN DECENT CAPE
VALUES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL THE SYSTEM
BYPASSING TO THE NORTH, LIKELY DROPPING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA FROM
NW TO SE SOMETIME LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, THOUGH
DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN TIMING. ANOTHER LOWER AMPLITUDE IMPULSE
UNDERCUTTING THE MAIN SYSTEM TO THE NORTH, IN TANDEM WITH THE
FRONTAL FORCING AND EXPECTED ADEQUATE THETA-E, SHOULD SUPPORT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT DURING THIS TIME. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND A SEVERE RISK MAY
ONCE AGAIN BE A THREAT TUESDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING (LOW CONFIDENCE).
ENSEMBLES GENERALLY FAVOR COOLER TEMPS INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES OFF THE SOUTH. THE PATTERN
THEREAFTER LOOKS PERIODICALLY WET AS SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
TAKE AIM ON THE MIDWEST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 110 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
THEN BECOME A LITTLE BREEZY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH FEW-SCT
FAIR WEATHER MID-LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...COBB
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