878
FXUS63 KIWX 300549
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
149 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGHEST CHANCES, INCLUDING AN OPPORTUNITY
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, WILL BE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY EVENING (70-90%).
- COOLER MIDWEEK WITH ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNTIES FOR RAIN THURSDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN WARMER, AND EVENTUALLY
MORE MOIST AIR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
BROAD EASTERN CONUS SURFACE HIGH. A WARM FRONT AND THETA-E RIDGE
LIFTS IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING MORNING, WHILE IN
THE MID LEVELS SEVERAL SMALL SCALE PERTURBATIONS TRACK EAST INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. WHETHER THIS SLUG OF MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH TO
OVERCOME A CAPPING INVERSION AT THE BASE OF AN EML NEAR THE WARM
FRONT REMAINS UNCERTAIN, THUS HAVE RETAINED CHANCE POPS (20-50%,
HIGHEST NORTH) FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME. THE
PRESENCE OF 35-45 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES COULD POSE A HAIL AND GUSTY WIND THREAT IF THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP.
WARM SECTOR LIKELY BECOMES FIRMLY ESTABLISHED FOR A TIME ON TUESDAY
AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TRACKING EAST ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER
INDUCES A WEAK SFC FRONTAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT THEN SLOWLY DROPS THROUGH THE AREA FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG IT OR ANY PRE-FRONTAL
FEATURES. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE/LIFT WITH ANY SMALL SCALE
IMPULSES, FRONTAL FORCING, AND WHAT COULD BE UP TO 1500 J/KG OF
MLCAPE WILL PROVIDE A CONDUCTIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS DURING THIS TIME. COULD ALSO SEE ANOTHER WINDOW FOR A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
EVENING GIVEN THE PROGGED INSTABILITY AND 35-45 KNOTS OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR.
ENSEMBLES GENERALLY FAVOR COOLER TEMPS INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SETTLES OFF THE SOUTH. THE PATTERN THEREAFTER LOOKS
PERIODICALLY WET AS SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TAKE AIM ON THE
MIDWEST.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND S-SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AT
BOTH SITES THIS AFTERNOON, AND AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AT KFWA.
CEILINGS SHOULD LINGER BETWEEN 4000-5000FT, WITH PERIODS OF
SCATTERED CLOUDS. LLWS UP TO 40 KNOTS TONIGHT, AND THEN UP TO 50
KNOTS BY TOMORROW NIGHT AS A STRONG LLJ RAMPS UP. THERE COULD BE
ISOLATED SHOWERS/T-STORMS AT KSBN AROUND 3-6Z, BUT THE BEST
POTENTIAL IS AFTER 6Z SO LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. KFWA WILL
LIKELY SEE SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS CLOSER TO 9-12Z TOMORROW
MORNING, SO WILL ADD GREATER DETAIL IN THE NEXT ISSUANCE.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...ANDERSEN/MCD
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