665
FXUS63 KIWX 300642
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
242 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS
NORTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO (~20% CHANCE).
- ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP (30-50% CHANCES) NORTH OF
I-80/I-90 LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
- BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN/STORMS COMES TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY (60-90% CHANCES).
- A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
- VERY MILD TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF US 24 MAY REACH 80 ON TUESDAY.
- COOLER WEDNESDAY, THEN MILD AGAIN WITH ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNTIES
FOR RAIN THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 241 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
A VERY ACTIVE WEEK IS AHEAD WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AND SEVERAL
OPPORTUNTIES FOR RAIN AND STORMS, INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER. TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON
AND 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT RAMPS UP TODAY AS STRONG WAA AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS ADVECT WARM, MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AMID ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT AND AIDED BY SEVERAL SMALL SHORTWAVE RIPPLES AT
500MB, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 18-00Z ACROSS
NORTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO. CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
STORMS THEN INCREASE NORTH OF I-80/I-90 OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES NORTH INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN AND A SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. A STRONGER 500MB SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH ACROSS
LOWER MICHIGAN BETWEEN 03-12Z TUESDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING;
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
(30- 50% BETWEEN 06-12Z TUESDAY) WILL BE CONCENTRATED MAINLY
NORTH OF I- 80/I-90 WHERE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
AND THERE WILL BE LIFT IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT.
ADDITIONALLY, FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ANYWHERE FROM 7-9 C/KM, WHICH WOULD PROMOTE A THREAT FOR
HAIL IF THE STORMS MATERIALIZE. IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT A
STRONG CAP COULD PREVENT SEVERE STORMS FROM FORMING ENTIRELY
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS PERSIST TUESDAY WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH, ESPECIALLY
BY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH OUR AREA FIRMLY IN THE WARM
SECTOR ON TUESDAY, HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S AREA-
WIDE. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF US 24 HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF REACHING 80
DEGREES OR HIGHER. WITH A BREEZY AND WARM TUESDAY AHEAD, WE ARE
MONITORING POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH A COLD FRONT
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. DESTABILIZATION
SHOULD OCCUR SOMETIME TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR IN NORTHERN INDIANA AND LOWER MICHIGAN. THE NORTHERN
HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ON TUESDAY. WITH SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW AND
ZONAL WINDS ALOFT, 0-6KM SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS WILL EXIST ALL DAY
TUESDAY. MODELS SHOW SBCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, IT IS JUST A QUESTION OF IF AND WHEN WE
BREAK THE CAP. MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7
C/KM WILL BE SUPPORTIVE FOR SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING (18-03Z), BUT QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. WHILE WE
MAY START WITH A DISCRETE STORM OR TWO NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, STORM MODE SHOULD LARGELY FAVOR A LINEAR
SETUP WITH BOWING SEGMENTS/CLUSTERS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT,
WHICH WOULD FAVOR DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THREATS WITH A
ISOLATED, NON-ZERO TORNADO THREAT AS WELL. LOW LEVEL WAA WILL
PROMOTE 0-1 KM SRH VALUES OF 200-300 M2/S2 ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. IN LINE WITH THIS, SPC HAS OUR
ENTIRE AREA UNDER A 2% TORNADO RISK WITH CIG1 HATCHING. THIS
MEANS THAT WHILE THE OVERALL TORNADO THREAT IS RATHER LOW, IT IT
NOT ZERO AND IF A TORNADO WERE TO DEVELOP, IT COULD BE STRONG
(UP TO EF2 INTENSITY). THE TORNADO THREAT WOULD MAINLY EXIST IF
A STORM WERE ABLE TO REMAIN DISCRETE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MAIN CONCERNS FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE THE DAMAGING WIND AND
HAIL THREATS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THOUGH MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY STALL OUT OVER OUR SOUTHEAST, SOMEWHERE IN THE
US 30 OR US 24 VICINITY. WINDS ALONG AND SOUTH OF US 24 WILL STILL
BE SOUTHWESTERLY OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SO I HAVE SOME CONCERNS
ABOUT A FLOODING THREAT DEVELOPING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THOSE
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE PARALLEL TO THE INCOMING COLD/STATIONARY
FRONT. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE SATURATED WITH LOW AND MID LEVEL RH OF
80-90%. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE 1.25-1.5" BETWEEN 03-09Z
WEDNESDAY AND AS AFOREMENTIONED, STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AT 850MB
WILL BE BRINGING IN VERY WARM AND MOISTURE AIR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SOUTH OF US 24 ALSO SHOW TALL, SKINNY CAPE PROFILES AND DEEP,
WARM CLOUD LAYER >10,000 FT. ALL OF THIS POINTS TOWARDS
POTENTIAL FLOODING CONCERNS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF US 24 (AND MAYBE
EVEN AS FAR NORTH AS US 30), DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND
FORWARD SPEED OF THE COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES CRASH ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY, WITH
HIGHS LIKELY BEING REACHED FOR THE DAY AROUND MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN BE IN THE 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. MILD AIR
THEN RETURNS AS TEMPERATURES QUICKLY MODERATE BACK INTO THE 70S BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN ON THURSDAY AS ANOTHER WARM FRONT LIFTS
ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. MORE RAIN IS POSSIBLE NEXT
WEEKEND TOO AS OUR ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO
EARLY APRIL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND S-SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AT
BOTH SITES THIS AFTERNOON, AND AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AT KFWA.
CEILINGS SHOULD LINGER BETWEEN 4000-5000FT, WITH PERIODS OF
SCATTERED CLOUDS. LLWS UP TO 40 KNOTS TONIGHT, AND THEN UP TO 50
KNOTS BY TOMORROW NIGHT AS A STRONG LLJ RAMPS UP. THERE COULD BE
ISOLATED SHOWERS/T-STORMS AT KSBN AROUND 3-6Z, BUT THE BEST
POTENTIAL IS AFTER 6Z SO LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. KFWA WILL
LIKELY SEE SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS CLOSER TO 9-12Z TOMORROW
MORNING, SO WILL ADD GREATER DETAIL IN THE NEXT ISSUANCE.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON/STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...ANDERSEN/MCD
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