237
FXUS63 KIWX 301806
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
206 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A CHANCE (20-50%) FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, MAINLY NORTH OF US-30.
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF STORMS DEVELOP.
- SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY (70-90%) LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS.
- COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN LIKELY (50-70%).
- WET PATTERN CONTINUES THURSDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. RIVER AND
LOWLAND FLOODING POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
AN OCCASIONALLY WET/STORMY PATTERN WILL SETTLE IN THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND AS SEVERAL STORM SYSTEMS TAKE AIM ON THE MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES.
A WARM FRONT WILL SET UP FROM THE PLAINS EAST TO SOUTHERN MI TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF ZONAL WESTERLIES.
THIS WILL BRING CHANCES (20-50%) FOR SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION
TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF US-30. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF
A 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET IN TANDEM WITH AN INCOMING SUBTLE MID LEVEL
IMPULSE WILL HELP PROVIDE THE FORCING, THOUGH COVERAGE POTENTIALLY
LIMITED BY LACKING DEEPER MOISTURE AND CAPPING. ANY CONVECTION WOULD
BE CAPABLE OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS GIVEN AN EML PLUME ATOP A
RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW.
A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TRACKING EAST NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER
WILL SEND A WEAK SFC REFLECTION THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL SEND A
TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS/STORMS LIKELY (70-90%). NEAR 60F
DEWPOINTS UNDER RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD ALLOW
FOR UP TO NEAR 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE WHERE MID 70S TO NEAR 80F TEMPS
ARE ACHIEVED TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH 35-40 KNOTS
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS,
PARTICULARLY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING. WIND AND
HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN WAKE
OF THE SFC FRONT PROGGED TO STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL
IL/IN/OH. THE ELEVATED PORTION OF THE FRONTAL SLOPE WILL HOVER
OVERHEAD HOWEVER WITH PERIODS OF RAIN LIKELY (50-70%) AS MOIST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PERSISTS INTO THIS ELEVATED REGION OF
CONVERGENCE.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW OF INTEREST WILL EJECT
FROM THE FOUR CORNERS NORTHEAST INTO THROUGH THE WESTERN/NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT PROVIDING
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. HYDRO ISSUES COULD START TO
BECOME A CONCERN, WITH SEVERE STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IF THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM CAN
BECOME ESTABLISHED FOR A TIME. ENSEMBLES THEN BRING ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS RIGHT AROUND THE 5000 FT LEVEL
IN THE NEAR TERM WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25
KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PERIODS OF
MVFR IN LOWERED CIGS/VSBYS ESPECIALLY WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
AROUND 04Z TO 08Z TUE ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT DRAPED WEST
TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MI/NORTHER IN OVERNIGHT. LLWS AROUND
45 KNOTS TONIGHT, AND THEN UP TO 50 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS A STRONG
LLJ RAMPS UP.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR LMZ043.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR LMZ046.
DISCUSSION...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...ANDERSEN
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