010
FXUS63 KIWX 310119
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
919 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A CHANCE (20-50%) FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, MAINLY NORTH OF US-30.
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF STORMS DEVELOP.
- SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY (70-90%) LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS.
- COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN LIKELY (50-70%).
- WET PATTERN CONTINUES THURSDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. RIVER AND
LOWLAND FLOODING POSSIBLE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 911 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, EXTENDING FROM WEST OF
CHICAGO TO CEDAR RAPIDS IA, WAS PROGRESSING ENE. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS INITIAL BATCH WEAKENS AS IT APPROACHES
FAR NW PARTS OF THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING. HAVE LEFT SOME SLGT
CHC TO CHC POPS IN THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE MAIN AXIS OF
CONVECTION LIKELY TO LINGER NEAR/SOUTH OF A QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY FROM IA INTO CENTRAL LOWER MI. EVOLUTION AND IMPACTS OF
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS THE LLJ INCREASES TO
THE WEST WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE AHEAD OF A WEAK
DISTURBANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
AN OCCASIONALLY WET/STORMY PATTERN WILL SETTLE IN THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND AS SEVERAL STORM SYSTEMS TAKE AIM ON THE MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES.
A WARM FRONT WILL SET UP FROM THE PLAINS EAST TO SOUTHERN MI TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF ZONAL WESTERLIES.
THIS WILL BRING CHANCES (20-50%) FOR SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION
TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF US-30. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF
A 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET IN TANDEM WITH AN INCOMING SUBTLE MID LEVEL
IMPULSE WILL HELP PROVIDE THE FORCING, THOUGH COVERAGE POTENTIALLY
LIMITED BY LACKING DEEPER MOISTURE AND CAPPING. ANY CONVECTION WOULD
BE CAPABLE OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS GIVEN AN EML PLUME ATOP A
RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW.
A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TRACKING EAST NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER
WILL SEND A WEAK SFC REFLECTION THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL SEND A
TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS/STORMS LIKELY (70-90%). NEAR 60F
DEWPOINTS UNDER RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD ALLOW
FOR UP TO NEAR 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE WHERE MID 70S TO NEAR 80F TEMPS
ARE ACHIEVED TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH 35-40 KNOTS
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS,
PARTICULARLY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING. WIND AND
HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN WAKE
OF THE SFC FRONT PROGGED TO STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL
IL/IN/OH. THE ELEVATED PORTION OF THE FRONTAL SLOPE WILL HOVER
OVERHEAD HOWEVER WITH PERIODS OF RAIN LIKELY (50-70%) AS MOIST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PERSISTS INTO THIS ELEVATED REGION OF
CONVERGENCE.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW OF INTEREST WILL EJECT
FROM THE FOUR CORNERS NORTHEAST INTO THROUGH THE WESTERN/NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT PROVIDING
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. HYDRO ISSUES COULD START TO
BECOME A CONCERN, WITH SEVERE STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IF THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM CAN
BECOME ESTABLISHED FOR A TIME. ENSEMBLES THEN BRING ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 744 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
STATIONARY BOUNDARY, DRAPED FROM IOWA INTO CENTRAL LOWER MI
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT, SOME OF WHICH HAS ALREADY STARTED IN CENTRAL IOWA. KFWA
SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTH OF ANY ACTIVITY, WITH A GLANCING HIT
TO KSBN POSSIBLE AFTER 6Z. HAVE MAINTAINED A PROB30 FOR KSBN,
BUT REMOVED FROM KFWA. AS THE LLJ RAMPS UP, LLWS WILL BE A
CONCERNS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE BETTER MIXING OCCURS.
THEREAFTER, IT IS POSSIBLE NO CONVECTION OCCURS TILL CLOSER TO
THE 21Z TUE TO 00Z WED PERIOD OR AFTER AS A STRONG EML AND
LEFTOVER CLOUD COVER FROM ANY MORNING ACTIVITY COULD SQUASH
DEVELOPMENT INITIALLY. HAVE THEREFORE LEFT ANY PRECIP OUT OF THE
TAFS AFTER 13Z.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR LMZ043.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR LMZ046.
UPDATE...FISHER
DISCUSSION...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...FISHER
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