928
FXUS63 KIWX 160558
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
158 AM EDT THU APR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT
AS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY CAUSE RENEWED FLOODING IN SOME
AREAS.
- A BRIEF BREAK IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE A
STRONGER FRONT ARRIVES WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
- OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL, WITH A DIP TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT WED APR 15 2026
WHILE THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS LESS FOR THE NEXT DAY OR 2, THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS AS WELL AS HEAVY RAIN
WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY AS THE REGION REMAINS ON THE WARM SIDE OF
A PERSISTENT TROUGH TO THE WEST. THE DISCUSSION WILL FOCUS MAINLY
THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE THE PATTERN BREAKS FOR AT LEAST A SHORT
TIME. A SERIES OF MCV'S AND OTHER WEAKER DISTURBANCES, REMNANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND A DECENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, WILL ALL
AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
INTO THURSDAY. GREATEST SEVERE THREAT TODAY APPEARS TO EXIST
WHERE IT HAS THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS FROM IA/IL AREA SOUTHWEST
INTO OK AND TX, BUT OUR AREA LIES IN A SLIGHT RISK (2 OUT OF 5)
FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. CLOUD COVER AND MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF PRECIP WILL LIKELY LIMIT MORE SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY,
BUT ENOUGH SHEAR AND CAPE WILL EXIST TO BRING A THREAT FOR STG-
SVR STORMS.
THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS WAS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS
NW PARTS OF THE AREA. A SMALL AREA OF STORMS HAS BEEN
INTENSIFYING WITH STRONG INDICATIONS OF HAIL AND POSSIBLY GUSTY
WINDS. THIS WILL CONTINUE ENE AND POSE A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. SWOMCD #446 WAS JUST SENT BY SPC DISCUSSING THE
CONCERNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. CAMS GENERALLY
SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND TOWARDS 00Z AND AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS THE
SFC LOW PASSES TO OUR NW. SEVERE THREAT COULD RETURN AGAIN
TOWARDS EVENING WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE POSSIBLE AGAIN, BUT
IMPACTS OF CURRENT STORMS COULD LIMIT THE CONCERNS. ON THE
HYDRO SIDE, MOST AREAS DODGED THE HEAVY RAINFALL LAST NIGHT (FAR
SOUTH AND FAR NORTH MAINLY), BUT WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT, OPTED TO EXPAND THE FLOOD WATCH TO THE ENTIRE
AREA AND EXPIRE AT 12Z THU. DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD FLOOD
ISSUES, BUT THERE WILL BE SWATHS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL THAT COULD
IMPACT SMALL CREEKS, STREAMS AND LOW AREAS AS WELL AS EVENTUALLY
CAUSE RISING RIVER LEVELS.
SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE START OF THURSDAY, BUT MODEL TRENDS SEEM
TO SUGGEST THAT THE SEVERE THREAT MAY SHIFT MORE TOWARDS THE EAST AS
THE AREA IS LIKELY CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED AND MAIN UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IS EXITING. SPC DY2 REFLECTS THIS WITH A MARGINAL RISK
ACROSS SE HALF OR SO OF THE AREA AND COULD SEE THIS POSSIBLY BEING
TRIMMED FURTHER IN FUTURE OUTLOOKS.
IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH AND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WE
SHOULD GET A BREAK IN PRECIP THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY EVENING
BEFORE A STRONGER TROUGH (ENTERING THE PACIFIC NW) DIVES INTO THE
PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY MAKES IT TO THE GREAT LAKES INTO SAT. SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE WITH THIS, BUT OVERALL TIMING
OF THE COLD FRONT NOW FAVORS A LESS THAN IDEAL SITUATION (LATE FRI
NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT). THIS IS REFLECTED WITH THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT
FRI TO OUR WEST AND THEN THE 15% SEVERE PROB MAINLY EAST ON SAT.
TIME TO SORT THAT OUT. COLDER AIR THEN ARRIVES BEHIND THIS FRONT
WITH A BRIEF RETURN TO 40S AND 50S SUNDAY THEN MODERATION BACK INTO
THE 60S AND 60S FOR THE WORK WEEK. RAIN CHANCES APPEAR LIMITED AT
THIS POINT, BUT ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH WILL BE TO THE WEST THAT MOST
LIKELY WILL BRING PRECIP CHANCES BACK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT THU APR 16 2026
STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND SMALLER SCALE EMBEDDED
WAVES IN UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW HAVE ALLOWED FOR SEVERAL
CLUSTERS HAVE SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH BULK OF THE RAIN
SHOWERS FROM 06Z-11Z. A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT OVERALL
COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY LIMITED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. THE PRIMARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN IL
WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS THROUGH MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, BUT
STRENGTH OF THIS RIDGE WILL RESULT IN SHORT WAVE TROUGH TAKING A
MORE NORTHEASTERLY ROUTE TO THE LAKE HURON VICINITY BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARY
LAGGING BACK TO THE WEST THIS MORNING. THIS SFC BOUNDARY WILL
EVENTUALLY SAG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST. BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE ACROSS NORTHEAST INDIANA FOLLOWING
THE TRACK OF THE PRIMARY UPPER LEVEL LOW WHERE SFC BASED
INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE MAXIMIZED. HAVE
INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP AT KFWA GIVEN A LITTLE BETTER PROXIMITY
TO LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL LOW, BUT KFWA SHOULD BE ON
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF MORE FAVORED THUNDER CHANCES. CONCERN FOR
TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO FOG POTENTIAL AS SFC BOUNDARY SETTLES
ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS, PARTIAL CLEARING, AND
POTENTIAL OF NEAR SFC MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
INZ005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-
116-203-204-216.
OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025.
MI...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ078>081-177-277.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FISHER
AVIATION...MARSILI
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page